The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in the MENA Countries: a Probit Analysis

This paper analysis the choice of exchange regimes of 17 economies in the MENA region for the period 1990-2000. For this purpose we use both de jure and de facto regime classifications and estimate a series of binomial and multinomial probit models. Regressions results highlight the important influence of economic development and international reserve levels on exchange regime selection.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64398/1/wp899.pd

A Composite Leading Indicator of Tunisian Inflation

This paper investigates the possibility of constructing a composite leading indicator (CLI) of Tunisian inflation. For doing so, partial information about future inflation rate provided by a number of basic series is analyzed first. Based on the correlation analysis, a few of these basic series are chosen for construction of composite indicator. Empirical results show that the deviation from long‐term trend of two monetary aggregates (M1 and M3), short‐term interest rate (TMM), real effective exchange rate and crude petroleum production, are important leading indicators for inflation rate in Tunisia. Accordingly, based on monthly data on these basic series, one composite indicator is constructed and its performance is assessed by using turning point analysis, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions. The results indicate that our composite indicator is useful in anticipating changes in inflation rates in Tunisia.Tunisia, Inflation, Leading indicators, Composite index

Tunisia: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Tunisian Dinar during the nineties. The estimated macroeconomic behaviour in response to the shocks identified with a Clarida and Gali–type structural VAR for Tunisia is generally in line with theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period and indicates that real disturbances explain about 80% of the variance of the forecast error of the real exchange rate.Tunisia, real exchange rate, structural VAR

Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Tunisian Dinar during the nineties. The estimated macroeconomic behaviour in response to the shocks identified with a Clarida and Gali–type structural VAR for Tunisia is generally in line with theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period and indicates that real disturbances explain about 80% of the variance of the forecast error of the real exchange rate.Tunisia; real exchange rate; structural VAR

Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices in the MENA Countries: Some Further Empirical Results

This paper analyses the determinants of exchange rate practices in 15 MENA countries for the 1977- 2007 period placing special emphasis on structural and macroeconomic explanations. We use three different exchange rate regime classifications in order to avoid potentially misleading specification. Even though the empirical results using the de facto classifications are very different from those obtained from the de jure specification, we find that international reserves play a major role in determining exchange rate practices in the MENA countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64374/1/wp952.pd

Seasonal changes in the population dynamics of Aurelia aurita in Thau lagoon

Seasonal dynamics of the scyphomedusae, Aurelia aurita, was investigated twice a month from January 2010 to June 2011 and related to environmental conditions in Thau lagoon, southwestern Mediterranean Sea. Strobilation, indicated by the presence of 1 mm ephyrae, occurred from November to the middle of April. Maximum abundances up to 330 ind.100 m-3 were reached in May 2011, few weeks after the last ephyrae release. The population declines afterwards steadily until disappearing from the water column. Concurrent with increased water temperature and mesozooplankton predation during May, growth rates increased from 0.04 mm.day-1 to a peak of 4.5 mm.day-1, with a maximum bell diameter of 11.3 cm reached on the 7th May. During the study period, there was no advection of A. aurita between Thau lagoon and the coastal waters

Centropages Kroyeri egg production rate as a function of lagoon summer conditions

EnDaily egg production of the neritic calanoid copepod Centropages kroyeri was measured from 4 to 23 August 2003 at a site in North lagoon of Tunis and related to summer environmental variables and food availability. Food availability was evaluated by assuming a direct correlation with concentrations of the Chlorophyll a (Chl a), the particulate organic carbon (POC), and some easily extractable macromolecular compounds such as proteins, carbohydrates and lipids, from the seston. The egg production Rate (EPR) was estimated by incubating mature females with natural filtered seawater. The EPR of Centropages kroyeri ranged from 4.2 (± 2.5) to 8.4 (± 6.2) eggs female–1 day–1. This value was positively affected by salinity (r = 0.501, P<0.01). Among indices of food availability, only seston proteins were positively correlated (r = 0.840, P<0.0001) with the daily EPR of the species

Jellyfish Stings Trigger Gill Disorders and Increased Mortality in Farmed Sparus aurata (Linnaeus, 1758) in the Mediterranean Sea

none8siJellyfish are of particular concern for marine finfish aquaculture. In recent years repeated mass mortality episodes of farmed fish were caused by blooms of gelatinous cnidarian stingers, as a consequence of a wide range of hemolytic, cytotoxic, and neurotoxic properties of associated cnidocytes venoms. The mauve stinger jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca (Scyphozoa) has been identified as direct causative agent for several documented fish mortality events both in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea aquaculture farms. We investigated the effects of P. noctiluca envenomations on the gilthead sea bream Sparus aurata by in vivo laboratory assays. Fish were incubated for 8 hours with jellyfish at 3 different densities in 300 l experimental tanks. Gill disorders were assessed by histological analyses and histopathological scoring of samples collected at time intervals from 3 hours to 4 weeks after initial exposure. Fish gills showed different extent and severity of gill lesions according to jellyfish density and incubation time, and long after the removal of jellyfish from tanks. Jellyfish envenomation elicits local and systemic inflammation reactions, histopathology and gill cell toxicity, with severe impacts on fish health. Altogether, these results shows P. noctiluca swarms may represent a high risk for Mediterranean finfish aquaculture farms, generating significant gill damage after only a few hours of contact with farmed S. aurata. Due to the growth of the aquaculture sector and the increased frequency of jellyfish blooms in the coastal waters, negative interactions between stinging jellyfish and farmed fish are likely to increase with the potential for significant economic losses.Bosch-Belmar, Mar; M'Rabet, Charaf; Dhaouadi, Raouf; Chalghaf, Mohamed; Daly Yahia, Mohamed Néjib; Fuentes, Verónica; Piraino, Stefano; Kéfi-Daly Yahia, OnsBosch Belmar, Mar; M'Rabet, Charaf; Dhaouadi, Raouf; Chalghaf, Mohamed; Daly Yahia, Mohamed Néjib; Fuentes, Verónica; Piraino, Stefano; Kéfi Daly Yahia, On

Le choix du régime de change pour les économies émergentes

Ce papier revoit la problématique du choix d’un régime de change pour les économies émergentes. Nous revoyons la littérature théorique et empirique sur la question en attachant une attention particulière à l’évolution des régimes de change (éventuelle disparition des régimes intermédiaires) et aux performances macroéconomiques des différents régimes de l’éventail allant de la fixité rigide au flottement. Notre analyse tend à confirmer l’hypothèse de Frankel (1999) « qu’aucun régime de change ne serait universel ou éternel

Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Tunisian Dinar during the nineties. The estimated macroeconomic behaviour in response to the shocks identified with a Clarida and Gali–type structural VAR for Tunisia is generally in line with theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period and indicates that real disturbances explain about 80% of the variance of the forecast error of the real exchange rate