Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy

EVALUATING THE USE OF CAMERA TRAPS TO MONITOR POPULATIONS OF UNGULATE PREY IN THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST

Efforts to recover endangered carnivore populations are often limited by insufficient populations of prey. When recovering prey populations, estimates of population density are invaluable metrics to monitor recovery efforts. In Russia, wildlife managers use the Formozov-Malyushev-Pereleshin (FMP) snow tracking method to estimate densities of ungulate prey of the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris). Yet, increasing variability in snow conditions and other challenges have limited its reliability. Camera traps offer a promising alternative approach since managers already use cameras to monitor tigers. However, the assumptions and study design necessary to implement capture-recapture models for tigers are different from those needed to implement models for unmarked populations of prey. In Chapter 1, I estimated densities of wild boar (Sus scrofa), red deer (Cervus canadensis ssp. xanthopygus), roe deer (Capreolus pygargus), and sika deer (Cervus nippon) using Random Encounter models (REM), Space-To-Event models (STE), and Time-To-Event models (TTE), then compared these with FMP estimates within Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik. Estimates from the STE and FMP were the most similar, though there were challenges implementing the STE to data from motion-trigger cameras. All models detected a \u3e90% decline in wild boar density due to African Swine Fever. Simulations indicated that greater survey effort for all camera-based methods would be required to achieve a coefficient of variation of 20% (an objective set for this study area in 2006). This is likely cost-prohibitive for many conservation programs due to the high costs of randomly deploying many cameras. To examine the influence of study design on detections of ungulate prey, in Chapter 2 I compared relative abundance indices (RAIs) of prey using: (1) cameras placed on roads to monitor tigers; (2) cameras placed using systematic random sampling; and (3) “off-road” cameras placed 150 meters away from road cameras. Both road and off-road RAIs were greater than random RAIs, and our attempt to approximate representative sampling with off-road cameras ultimately did not work. These results highlight the importance of random sampling to meet the assumptions of unmarked estimators. Detection data of prey species from cameras placed for tiger monitoring should not be used to estimate true abundance of prey species using these models

Estimating Amur tiger (\u3ci\u3ePanthera tigris altaica\u3c/i\u3e) kill rates and potential consumption rates using global positioning system collars

The International Union for Conservation of Nature has classified all subspecies of tigers (Panthera tigris) as endangered and prey depletion is recognized as a primary driver of declines. Prey depletion may be particularly important for Amur tigers (P. t. altaica) in the Russian Far East, living at the northern limits of their range and with the lowest prey densities of any tiger population. Unfortunately, rigorous investigations of annual prey requirements for any tiger population are lacking. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) collars on Amur tigers during 2009–2012 to study annual kill rates in the Russian Far East. We investigated 380 GPS location clusters and detected 111 kill sites. We then used logistic regression to model both the probability of a kill site at location clusters and the size of prey species at kill sites according to several spatial and temporal cluster covariates. Our top model for predicting kill sites included the duration of the cluster in hours and cluster fidelity components as covariates (overall classification success 86.3%; receiver operating characteristic score of 0.894). Application of the model to all tiger GPS data revealed that Amur tigers in this study made a kill once every 6.5 days (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 5.9–7.2 days) and consumed an estimated average of 8.9 kg of prey biomass per day (95% CI 8.8–9.0 kg/day). The success of efforts to reverse tiger declines will be at least partially determined by wildlife managers’ ability to conserve large ungulates at adequate densities for recovering tiger populations

Transboundary Cooperation Improves Endangered Species Monitoring and Conservation Actions: A Case Study of the Global Population of Amur Leopards

Political borders and natural boundaries of wildlife populations seldom coincide, often to the detriment of conservation objectives. Transnational monitoring of endangered carnivores is rare, but is necessary for accurate population monitoring and coordinated conservation policies. We investigate the benefits of collaboratively monitoring the abundance and survival of the critically endangered Amur leopard, which occurs as a single transboundary population across China and Russia. Country‐specific results overestimated abundance and were generally less precise compared to integrated monitoring estimates; the global population was similar in both years: 84 (70–108, 95% confidence interval). Uncertainty in country‐specific annual survival estimates were approximately twice the integrated estimates of 0.82 (0.69–0.91, 95% confidence limits). This collaborative effort provided a better understanding of Amur leopard population dynamics, represented a first step in building trust, and lead to cooperative agreements to coordinate conservation policies

Phylogeography and Genetic Ancestry of Tigers (Panthera tigris)

Eight traditional subspecies of tiger (Panthera tigris), of which three recently became extinct, are commonly recognized on the basis of geographic isolation and morphological characteristics. To investigate the species' evolutionary history and to establish objective methods for subspecies recognition, voucher specimens of blood, skin, hair, and/or skin biopsies from 134 tigers with verified geographic origins or heritage across the whole distribution range were examined for three molecular markers: (1) 4.0 kb of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence; (2) allele variation in the nuclear major histocompatibility complex class II DRB gene; and (3) composite nuclear microsatellite genotypes based on 30 loci. Relatively low genetic variation with mtDNA, DRB, and microsatellite loci was found, but significant population subdivision was nonetheless apparent among five living subspecies. In addition, a distinct partition of the Indochinese subspecies P. t. corbetti into northern Indochinese and Malayan Peninsula populations was discovered. Population genetic structure would suggest recognition of six taxonomic units or subspecies: (1) Amur tiger P. t. altaica; (2) northern Indochinese tiger P. t. corbetti; (3) South China tiger P. t. amoyensis; (4) Malayan tiger P. t. jacksoni, named for the tiger conservationist Peter Jackson; (5) Sumatran tiger P. t. sumatrae; and (6) Bengal tiger P. t. tigris. The proposed South China tiger lineage is tentative due to limited sampling. The age of the most recent common ancestor for tiger mtDNA was estimated to be 72,000–108,000 y, relatively younger than some other Panthera species. A combination of population expansions, reduced gene flow, and genetic drift following the last genetic diminution, and the recent anthropogenic range contraction, have led to the distinct genetic partitions. These results provide an explicit basis for subspecies recognition and will lead to the improved management and conservation of these recently isolated but distinct geographic populations of tigers

Bringing the Tiger Back from the Brink—The Six Percent Solution

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Distemper, extinction, and vaccination of the Amur tiger

Canine distemper virus (CDV) has recently emerged as an extinction threat for the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). CDV is vaccine-preventable, and control strategies could require vaccination of domestic dogs and/or wildlife populations. However, vaccination of endangered wildlife remains controversial, which has led to a focus on interventions in domestic dogs, often assumed to be the source of infection. Effective decision making requires an understanding of the true reservoir dynamics, which poses substantial challenges in remote areas with diverse host communities. We carried out serological, demographic, and phylogenetic studies of dog and wildlife populations in the Russian Far East to show that a number of wildlife species are more important than dogs, both in maintaining CDV and as sources of infection for tigers. Critically, therefore, because CDV circulates among multiple wildlife sources, dog vaccination alone would not be effective at protecting tigers. We show, however, that low-coverage vaccination of tigers themselves is feasible and would produce substantive reductions in extinction risks. Vaccination of endangered wildlife provides a valuable component of conservation strategies for endangered species

Biological Earth observation with animal sensors

Space-based tracking technology using low-cost miniature tags is now delivering data on fine-scale animal movement at near-global scale. Linked with remotely sensed environmental data, this offers a biological lens on habitat integrity and connectivity for conservation and human health; a global network of animal sentinels of environmen-tal change

RUTTING BEHAVIOR OF MOOSE IN CENTRAL ALASKA

We studies rutting behavior of moose in Denali National Park , Alaska during 1980-1983 and 1986. Definitions of sex-specific behaviors are provided based on over 1,000 hours of observation. Feeding (73% of total time) dominated female behaviors. Stand, alert behavior, and moving (2-9%) were other important non-social behaviors. Time allocated to various social and non-social behaviors by males varied among lone males, males in male groups, satellite males, and dominant males that controlled female groups. Lone bulls engaged in feeding, moving, croaking, bush thrashing, and standing about 72% of the time. Dominant bulls in mixed groups engaged in threats and displays to rivals with a combined frequency of 15%. Dominant males allocated varying percentages of time to certain behaviors as the rut progressed; herding females, courtship, and fighting were rare or absent early in the rut. We determined group size for rutting aggregations of different sex-age composition during different periods of the rut (early, mid and peak rut). Median group sizes were 4, 6, and 7, respectively, during these periods, with 37 being the largest aggregation observed. We suggest that moose in this area have a highly polygynous breeding system with dominant males responsible for most of the copulations. Although dominant males defend running aggregations and herd females, moose do not form true harems

THE MOOSE BELL: A VISUAL OR OLFACTORY COMMUNICATOR

Two current hypotheses that explain the evolutionary significance of the moose (Alces alces) bell are: 1) during the rut the male bell disseminates and transfers by contact, the urine of the bowl close to or directly onto the cow, and; 2) the bell acts as a visual cue that relates to sex and age, which in turn may be associated with rank. We tested the first hypothesis by describing wallowing behavior, and determining whether females initiated contact with bulls’ bells more than expected by chance. The second hypothesis was tested by comparing bell morphology in two populations of moose, and by relating the outcome of agonistic interactions to bell shape. Observations on wallowing behavior supported the hypothesis that the bell acts as a carrier of olfactory cues. However, females make physical contact with male bells less than expected by chance. Populations in Alaska and Ontario had similar age- and sex-related variations in bell shape. No relationship was found between bell morphology and dominance among females or among males during the antlerless period. We hypothesize that bell shape is a secondary sexual characteristic most important during the rut, and that moose may use bell morphology to assess social status of conspecifics