Trademark and patent applications are structurally near-identical and cointegrated: Implications for studies in innovation

Objective. This paper seeks to test the existence of a “long-run” equilibrium (LRE) dynamic between trademarks and patents, as it would suggest that similar exogenous pressures concomitantly drive these metrics. The restraint in the divergence of the two indices supports an important aspect of the Innovation Agenda, a normative intellectual property (IP)-centric model of the firm, whereby the corporate strategy of science and technology firms is defined by constructing and communicating IP. Design/Methodology/Approach. Empirical analysis using descriptive statistics, wavelet, cointegration, and structural break analysis is applied to monthly US trademark and patent applications from 1977-2016 to test the potential for LRE. Results/Discussion. This work finds that the indices have similar (identical) structural attributes (including distribution characteristics, seasonal variation, and short-term cross-periodicity) and are cointegrated (I(1)). Further, structural breakpoints were (near) simultaneous (Trademarks: 1987, 1993, 1999, 2005, 2011; Patents: 1988, 1994, 2000, and 2011). A discussion of potential triggers causing these breaks and the concept of equilibrium in the context of these proxy measures is presented. Conclusions. From the study, likely, US trademark and patent applications are intimately linked; thus, increasing the likelihood that the Innovation Agenda may correctly capture at least one aspect of the firm. As a corollary, this work further supports the inclusion of trademark analysis in innovation studies. The limitations of the approach including study design are presented. Originality/Value. To the author’s knowledge, the existence of an LRE of trademarks and patents in the framework of the Innovation Agenda is a novel contribution

Leveraging latent persistency in the United States patent and trademark applications to gain insight into the evolution of an innovation-driven economy

Objective: An understanding of when one or more external factors may influence the evolution of innovation tracking indices (such as US patent and trademark applications (PTA)) is an important aspect of examining economic progress/regress. Using exploratory statistics, the analysis uses a novel tool to leverage the long-range dependency (LRD) intrinsic to PTA to resolve when such factor(s) may have caused significant disruptions in the evolution of the indices, and thus give insight into substantive economic growth dynamics. Approach: This paper explores the use of the Chronological Hurst Exponent (CHE) to explore the LRD using overlapping time windows to quantify long-memory dynamics in the monthly PTA time-series spanning 1977 to 2016. Results/Discussion: The CHE is found to increase in a clear S-curve pattern, achieving persistence (H~1) from non-persistence (H~0.5). For patents, the inflection occurred over a span of 10 years (1980-1990), while it was much sharper (3 years) for trademarks (1977-1980). Conclusions/Originality/Value: This analysis suggests (in part) that the rapid augmentation in R&D expenditure and the introduction of the various patent directed policy acts (e.g., Bayh-Dole, Stevenson-Wydler) are the key impetuses behind persistency, latent in PTA. The post-1990’s  exogenic factors seem to be simply maintaining the high degree and consistency of the persistency metric. These findings suggest investigators should consider latent persistency when using these data and the CHE may be an important tool to investigate the impact of substantive exogenous variables on growth dynamics

The Impact of US Medical Product Regulatory Complexity on Innovation: Preliminary Evidence of Interdependence, Early Acceleration, and Subsequent Inversion

Is the complexity of medical product (medicines and medical devices) regulation impacting innovation in the US? If so, how? Here, this question is investigated as follows: Various novel proxy metrics of regulation (FDA-issued guidelines) and innovation (corresponding FDA-registrations) from 1976-2020 are used to determine interdependence, a concept relying on strong correlation and reciprocal causality (estimated via variable lag transfer entropy and wavelet coherence). Based on this interdependence, a mapping of regulation onto innovation is conducted and finds that regulation seems to accelerate then supports innovation until on or around 2015; at which time, an inverted U-curve emerged. If empirically evidentiary, an important innovation-regulation nexus in the US has been reached; and, as such, stakeholders should (re)consider the complexity of the regulatory landscape to enhance US medical product innovation. Study limitations, extensions, and further thoughts complete this investigation.Comment: 53 pages (from Title Page to References), 6 Tables, 9 Figures. Pharm Res (2023

Singular Secular Kuznets-like Period Realized Amid Industrial Transformation in US FDA Medical Devices: A Perspective on Innovation from 1976 to 2020

Introduction: Since inception, the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has kept a robust record of regulated medical devices (MDs). Based on these data, can we gain insight into the innovation dynamics of the industry, including the potential for industrial transformation? Areas Covered: Using Premarket Notifications (PMNs) and Approvals (PMAs) data, it is shown that from 1976 to 2020 the total composite (PMN + PMA) metric follows a single secular period: 20.5 years (applications peak-to-peak: 1992-2012; trough: 2002) and 26.5 years (registrations peak to peak: 1992 to 2019; trough: 2003), with a peak to trough relative percentage difference of 24% and 28%, respectively. Importantly, PMNs and PMAs independently present as an inverse structure. Expert Opinion: The evidence suggests: MD innovation is driven by a singular secular Kutnets-like cyclic phenomenon (independent of economic crises) derived from a fundamental shift from simple (PMNs) to complex (PMAs) MDs. Portentously, while the COVID-19 crisis may not affect the overriding dynamic, the anticipated yet significant (~25%) MD innovation drop may be potentially attenuated with attentive measures by MD stakeholders. Limitations of this approach and further thoughts complete this perspective

Efficacy and Safety of Alemtuzumab Through 9 Years of Follow-up in Patients with Highly Active Disease: Post Hoc Analysis of CARE-MS I and II Patients in the TOPAZ Extension Study

Background: Alemtuzumab efficacy versus subcutaneous interferon-β-1a (SC IFNB-1a) was demonstrated over 2 years in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, with continued efficacy over 7 additional years. Alemtuzumab is included as a recommended treatment for patients with highly active disease (HAD) by the American Academy of Neurology Practice Guidelines, and the label indication in Europe was recently restricted to the treatment of HAD patients. There is currently no consensus definition for HAD, and alemtuzumab efficacy across various HAD definitions has not been explored previously. Objectives: In this post hoc analysis, we assess the efficacy and safety of alemtuzumab in Comparison of Alemtuzumab and Rebif® Efficacy in Multiple Sclerosis (CARE-MS) trial patients who met criteria for at least one of four separate definitions of HAD (one primary and three alternatives). Over 2 years, alemtuzumab-treated HAD patients were compared with SC IFNB-1a-treated HAD patients, with additional 7-year follow-up in patients from the alemtuzumab arm. Methods: Patients in the CARE-MS studies received either alemtuzumab (baseline: 5 days; 12 months later: 3 days) or SC IFNB-1a (3 times weekly). Alemtuzumab-treated patients who enrolled in the extensions could receive additional courses ≥ 12 months apart. Four definitions of HAD were applied to assess alemtuzumab efficacy: the pre-specified primary definition (two or more relapses in the year prior to baseline and at least one gadolinium [Gd]-enhancing lesion at baseline) and three alternative definitions that focused on relapse, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or prior treatment response criteria. Efficacy outcomes were annualized relapse rate, change in Expanded Disability Status Scale score, 6-month confirmed disability worsening, 6-month confirmed disability improvement, MRI disease activity, and brain volume change. Adverse events were summarized for HAD patients meeting the primary definition. Results: In the pooled CARE-MS population, 208 alemtuzumab-treated patients met the primary HAD definition. Annualized relapse rate was 0.27 in years 0–2 and 0.16 in years 3–9. Over 9 years, 62% of patients were free of 6-month confirmed disability worsening, 50% had 6-month confirmed disability improvement, and median cumulative change in brain volume was − 2.15%. During year 9, 62% had no evidence of disease activity, and 69% were free of MRI disease activity. Similar efficacy outcomes were observed using an alternative relapse-driven HAD definition. For patients meeting alternative HAD definitions focused on either higher MRI lesion counts or disease activity while on prior therapy, reduced efficacy for some endpoints was seen. Safety was consistent with the overall CARE-MS population through year 9. Conclusions: Over 9 years, alemtuzumab efficacy was maintained in CARE-MS HAD patients based on four HAD definitions. These results support intervention with alemtuzumab in patients with early indicators of HAD, including frequent relapse without high MRI activity. No safety signals were observed over 9 years that were unique to the HAD populations. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT00530348; NCT00548405; NCT00930553; NCT02255656

The effect of 8 or 5 years of denosumab treatment in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: results from the FREEDOM Extension study

The FREEDOM study and its Extension provide long-term information about the effects of denosumab for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Treatment for up to 8 years was associated with persistent reduction of bone turnover, continued increases in bone mineral density, low fracture incidence, and a favorable benefit/risk profile. INTRODUCTION: This study aims to report the results through year 5 of the FREEDOM Extension study, representing up to 8 years of continued denosumab treatment in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. METHODS: Women who completed the 3-year FREEDOM study were eligible to enter the 7-year open-label FREEDOM Extension in which all participants are scheduled to receive denosumab, since placebo assignment was discontinued for ethical reasons. A total of 4550 women enrolled in the Extension (2343 long-term; 2207 cross-over). In this analysis, women in the long-term and cross-over groups received denosumab for up to 8 and 5 years, respectively. RESULTS: Throughout the Extension, sustained reduction of bone turnover markers (BTMs) was observed in both groups. In the long-term group, mean bone mineral density (BMD) continued to increase significantly at each time point measured, for cumulative 8-year gains of 18.4 and 8.3 % at the lumbar spine and total hip, respectively. In the cross-over group, mean BMD increased significantly from the Extension baseline for 5-year cumulative gains of 13.1 and 6.2 % at the lumbar spine and total hip, respectively. The yearly incidence of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures remained low in both groups. The incidence of adverse and serious adverse events did not increase over time. Through Extension year 5, eight events of osteonecrosis of the jaw and two events of atypical femoral fracture were confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: Denosumab treatment for up to 8 years was associated with persistent reductions of BTMs, continued BMD gains, low fracture incidence, and a consistent safety profile

Clique-Finding for Heterogeneity and Multidimensionality in Biomarker Epidemiology Research: The CHAMBER Algorithm

Commonly-occurring disease etiology may involve complex combinations of genes and exposures resulting in etiologic heterogeneity. We present a computational algorithm that employs clique-finding for heterogeneity and multidimensionality in biomedical and epidemiological research (the "CHAMBER" algorithm).This algorithm uses graph-building to (1) identify genetic variants that influence disease risk and (2) predict individuals at risk for disease based on inherited genotype. We use a set-covering algorithm to identify optimal cliques and a Boolean function that identifies etiologically heterogeneous groups of individuals. We evaluated this approach using simulated case-control genotype-disease associations involving two- and four-gene patterns. The CHAMBER algorithm correctly identified these simulated etiologies. We also used two population-based case-control studies of breast and endometrial cancer in African American and Caucasian women considering data on genotypes involved in steroid hormone metabolism. We identified novel patterns in both cancer sites that involved genes that sulfate or glucuronidate estrogens or catecholestrogens. These associations were consistent with the hypothesized biological functions of these genes. We also identified cliques representing the joint effect of multiple candidate genes in all groups, suggesting the existence of biologically plausible combinations of hormone metabolism genes in both breast and endometrial cancer in both races.The CHAMBER algorithm may have utility in exploring the multifactorial etiology and etiologic heterogeneity in complex disease

Romosozumab (sclerostin monoclonal antibody) versus teriparatide in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis transitioning from oral bisphosphonate therapy : a randomised, open-label, phase 3 trial

Background: Previous bisphosphonate treatment attenuates the bone-forming effect of teriparatide. We compared the effects of 12 months of romosozumab (AMG 785), a sclerostin monoclonal antibody, versus teriparatide on bone mineral density (BMD) in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis transitioning from bisphosphonate therapy. Methods: This randomised, phase 3, open-label, active-controlled study was done at 46 sites in North America, Latin America, and Europe. We enrolled women (aged >= 55 to <= 90 years) with postmenopausal osteoporosis who had taken an oral bisphosphonate for at least 3 years before screening and alendronate the year before screening; an areal BMD T score of -2.5 or lower at the total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine; and a history of fracture. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via an interactive voice response system to receive subcutaneous romosozumab (210 mg once monthly) or subcutaneous teriparatide (20 mu g once daily). The primary endpoint was percentage change from baseline in areal BMD by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry at the total hip through month 12 (mean of months 6 and 12), which used a linear mixed effects model for repeated measures and represented the mean treatment effect at months 6 and 12. All randomised patients with a baseline measurement and at least one post-baseline measurement were included in the efficacy analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01796301. Findings: Between Jan 31, 2013, and April 29, 2014, 436 patients were randomly assigned to romosozumab (n=218) or teriparatide (n=218). 206 patients in the romosozumab group and 209 in the teriparatide group were included in the primary efficacy analysis. Through 12 months, the mean percentage change from baseline in total hip areal BMD was 2.6% (95% CI 2.2 to 3.0) in the romosozumab group and -0.6% (-1.0 to -0.2) in the teriparatide group; difference 3.2% (95% CI 2.7 to 3.8; p<0.0001). The frequency of adverse events was generally balanced between treatment groups. The most frequently reported adverse events were nasopharyngitis (28 [13%] of 218 in the romosozumab group vs 22 [10%] of 214 in the teriparatide group), hypercalcaemia (two [<1%] vs 22 [10%]), and arthralgia (22 [10%] vs 13 [6%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 17 (8%) patients on romosozumab and in 23 (11%) on teriparatide; none were judged treatment related. There were six (3%) patients in the romosozumab group compared with 12 (6%) in the teriparatide group with adverse events leading to investigational product withdrawal. Interpretation: Transition to a bone-forming agent is common practice in patients treated with bisphosphonates, such as those who fracture while on therapy. In such patients, romosozumab led to gains in hip BMD that were not observed with teriparatide. These data could inform clinical decisions for patients at high risk of fracture