Investigation of Uncertainties in Multi-variable Bias Adjustment in Multi-model Ensemble

Post-processing methods such as univariate bias adjustment have been widely used to reduce the bias in the individual variable. These methods are applied to variables independently without considering the inter-variable dependence. However, in compound events, multiple atmospheric factors occur simultaneously or in succession, leading to more severe and complex impacts. Therefore, a multi-variable bias adjustment is necessary to retain the inter-variable dependence between the atmospheric drivers. The present study focuses on a multi-variable bias adjustment of surface air temperature and relative humidity in a multi-model ensemble. We investigated added values and biases before and after adjusting the variables. There are gains and losses throughout the process of adjustment. The bias adjustment effectively reduces bias in surface air temperature; however, it shows bias amplification for relative humidity at higher altitudes. Added values were improved at lower altitudes but showed reductions in surface air temperature at higher altitudes. Overall, the bias adjustment shows improvement in reducing bias over low-altitude urban areas, encouraging its application to assess compound events. These findings highlight a potential bias adjustment approach for the regions with a constraint on observational data.</p

ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan

J/psi suppression at forward rapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=39 and 62.4 GeV

We present measurements of the J/psi invariant yields in sqrt(s_NN)=39 and 62.4 GeV Au+Au collisions at forward rapidity (1.2<|y|<2.2). Invariant yields are presented as a function of both collision centrality and transverse momentum. Nuclear modifications are obtained for central relative to peripheral Au+Au collisions (R_CP) and for various centrality selections in Au+Au relative to scaled p+p cross sections obtained from other measurements (R_AA). The observed suppression patterns at 39 and 62.4 GeV are quite similar to those previously measured at 200 GeV. This similar suppression presents a challenge to theoretical models that contain various competing mechanisms with different energy dependencies, some of which cause suppression and others enhancement.Comment: 365 authors, 10 pages, 11 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. C. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Quadrupole Anisotropy in Dihadron Azimuthal Correlations in Central dd++Au Collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200 GeV

The PHENIX collaboration at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) reports measurements of azimuthal dihadron correlations near midrapidity in $d$$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}$=200 GeV. These measurements complement recent analyses by experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) involving central $p$$+$Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}$=5.02 TeV, which have indicated strong anisotropic long-range correlations in angular distributions of hadron pairs. The origin of these anisotropies is currently unknown. Various competing explanations include parton saturation and hydrodynamic flow. We observe qualitatively similar, but larger, anisotropies in $d$$+$Au collisions compared to those seen in $p$$+$Pb collisions at the LHC. The larger extracted $v_2$ values in $d$$+$Au collisions at RHIC are consistent with expectations from hydrodynamic calculations owing to the larger expected initial-state eccentricity compared with that from $p$$+$Pb collisions. When both are divided by an estimate of the initial-state eccentricity the scaled anisotropies follow a common trend with multiplicity that may extend to heavy ion data at RHIC and the LHC, where the anisotropies are widely thought to arise from hydrodynamic flow.Comment: 375 authors, 7 pages, 5 figures. Published in Phys. Rev. Lett. v2 has minor changes to text and figures in response to PRL referee suggestions. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Double Spin Asymmetry of Electrons from Heavy Flavor Decays in p+p Collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV

We report on the first measurement of double-spin asymmetry, A_LL, of electrons from the decays of hadrons containing heavy flavor in longitudinally polarized p+p collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV for p_T= 0.5 to 3.0 GeV/c. The asymmetry was measured at mid-rapidity (|eta|<0.35) with the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The measured asymmetries are consistent with zero within the statistical errors. We obtained a constraint for the polarized gluon distribution in the proton of |Delta g/g(log{_10}x= -1.6^+0.5_-0.4, {mu}=m_T^c)|^2 < 0.033 (1 sigma), based on a leading-order perturbative-quantum-chromodynamics model, using the measured asymmetry.Comment: 385 authors, 17 pages, 15 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. D. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Measurement of higher cumulants of net-charge multiplicity distributions in Au++Au collisions at sNN=7.7−200\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=7.7-200 GeV

We report the measurement of cumulants ($C_n, n=1\ldots4$) of the net-charge distributions measured within pseudorapidity ($|\eta|<0.35$) in Au$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=7.7-200$ GeV with the PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The ratios of cumulants (e.g. $C_1/C_2$, $C_3/C_1$) of the net-charge distributions, which can be related to volume independent susceptibility ratios, are studied as a function of centrality and energy. These quantities are important to understand the quantum-chromodynamics phase diagram and possible existence of a critical end point. The measured values are very well described by expectation from negative binomial distributions. We do not observe any nonmonotonic behavior in the ratios of the cumulants as a function of collision energy. The measured values of $C_1/C_2 = \mu/\sigma^2$ and $C_3/C_1 = S\sigma^3/\mu$ can be directly compared to lattice quantum-chromodynamics calculations and thus allow extraction of both the chemical freeze-out temperature and the baryon chemical potential at each center-of-mass energy.Comment: 512 authors, 8 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. v2 is version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. C as a Rapid Communication. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Cross section for bbˉb\bar{b} production via dielectrons in d++Au collisions at sNN=200\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200 GeV

We report a measurement of $e^+e^-$ pairs from semileptonic heavy-flavor decays in $d$$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$ GeV. Exploring the mass and transverse-momentum dependence of the yield, the bottom decay contribution can be isolated from charm, and quantified by comparison to {\sc pythia} and {\sc mc@nlo} simulations. The resulting $b\bar{b}$-production cross section is $\sigma^{d{\rm Au}}_{b\bar{b}}=1.37{\pm}0.28({\rm stat}){\pm}0.46({\rm syst})$~mb, which is equivalent to a nucleon-nucleon cross section of $\sigma^{NN}_{bb}=3.4\pm0.8({\rm stat}){\pm}1.1({\rm syst})\ \mu$b.Comment: 375 authors, 16 pages, 8 figures, 7 tables, 2008 data. Submitted to Phys. Rev. C Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Suppression of back-to-back hadron pairs at forward rapidity in d+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=200 GeV

Back-to-back hadron pair yields in d+Au and p+p collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=200 GeV were measured with the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. Rapidity separated hadron pairs were detected with the trigger hadron at pseudorapidity |eta|<0.35 and the associated hadron at forward rapidity (deuteron direction, 3.0<eta<3.8). Pairs were also detected with both hadrons measured at forward rapidity; in this case the yield of back-to-back hadron pairs in d+Au collisions with small impact parameters is observed to be suppressed by a factor of 10 relative to p+p collisions. The kinematics of these pairs is expected to probe partons in the Au nucleus with low fraction x of the nucleon momenta, where the gluon densities rise sharply. The observed suppression as a function of nuclear thickness, p_T, and eta points to cold nuclear matter effects arising at high parton densities.Comment: 381 authors, 6 pages, 4 figures. Published in Phys. Rev. Lett. (http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.107.172301). v3 has minor changes to match published version (http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/phenix/WWW/info/pp1/128/PhysRevLett.107.172301) Plain text data tables for points plotted in figures are publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/phenix/WWW/info/data/ppg128_data.htm