UTILIZING EARTH SYSTEMS PREDICTION CAPABILITY (ESPC) TO FORECAST MISTRAL WIND EVENTS

Mistral wind events impact the coast of France and build seas in the Gulf of Lion. Strong and persistent wind events impact the routing of naval vessels and the ability to conduct operations in the Mediterranean. Properly identifying the meteorological synoptic picture is key to forecasters seeking to accurately predict Mistral events. Navy Earth Systems Prediction System (ESPC) is a coupled model developed by Naval Research Laboratory to produce atmospheric, oceanographic, and ice sub-seasonal forecasts. Using publicly available deterministic forecasts (from August 2017 through December 2021) and surface pressure and wind analyses, the skill of ESPC and forecast thumb rules in predicting the mistral between 7 and 21 days is evaluated. Deterministic ESPC displays a low amount of skill in directly predicting mistral events two to three weeks ahead. However, using the ESPC prediction of forecaster thumb rules increase the skill in some instances. Analysis of surface pressure and winds over the forecast area for the deterministic forecast was not found to be a reliable method for predicting events beyond the range of typical weather models.Lieutenant Commander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Capacity Estimation for Roundabouts with High Truck Volume Using Gap Acceptance Theory

This study examines the effect of heavy vehicles (trucks) on entry capacity of roundabouts. The movements of vehicles were observed at 11 roundabouts in Vermont, Ontario and Wisconsin. Gap-acceptance parameters were estimated for cars and trucks separately; consistent with previous studies, it was found that critical headway and follow-up time were longer for trucks than cars. Follow-up times for truck-involved vehicle-following cases were found to be associated with central island diameter and entry angle. Gap-acceptance parameters for all entering vehicles were adjusted to a volume-weighted average of the gap-acceptance parameters for cars and trucks. Entry capacity was estimated using existing capacity models with the adjusted gap-acceptance parameters, and compared with the observed capacity at three roundabouts. The capacity models with adjusted gap-acceptance parameters estimated capacity more accurately than the models with unadjusted parameters. Microscopic traffic simulation model was also effective in representing truck characteristics and their impact on roundabout operation

Observed mode shape effects on the vortex-induced vibration of bending dominated flexible cylinders simply supported at both ends

The effect of varying the structural mode excitation on bending-dominated flexible cylinders undergoing vortex-induced vibrations was investigated. The response of the bending-dominated cylinders was compared with the response of a tension-dominated cylinder using multivariate analysis techniques. Experiments were conducted in a recirculating flow channel with a uniform free stream with Reynolds numbers between 650 and 5500. Three bending-dominated cylinders were tested with varying stiffness in the cross-flow and in-line directions of the cylinder in order to produce varying structural mode shapes associated with a fixed 2:1 (in-line:cross-flow) natural frequency ratio. A fourth cylinder with natural frequency characteristics determined through applied axial tension was also tested for comparison. The spanwise in-line and cross-flow responses of the flexible cylinders were measured through motion tracking with high-speed cameras. Global smooth-orthogonal decomposition was applied to the spatio-temporal response for empirical mode identification. The experimental observations show that for excitation of low mode numbers, the cylinder is unlikely to oscillate with an even mode shape in the in-line direction due to symmetric drag loading, even when the system is tuned to have an even mode at the expected frequency of vortex shedding. In addition, no mode shape changes were observed in the in-line direction unless a mode change occurs in the cross-flow direction, implying that the in-line response is a forced response dependent on the cross-flow response. The results confirm observations from previous field and laboratory experiments, while demonstrating how structural mode shape can affect vortex-induced vibrations

Frequency-Modulated, Continuous-Wave Laser Ranging Using Photon-Counting Detectors

Optical ranging is a problem of estimating the round-trip flight time of a phase- or amplitude-modulated optical beam that reflects off of a target. Frequency- modulated, continuous-wave (FMCW) ranging systems obtain this estimate by performing an interferometric measurement between a local frequency- modulated laser beam and a delayed copy returning from the target. The range estimate is formed by mixing the target-return field with the local reference field on a beamsplitter and detecting the resultant beat modulation. In conventional FMCW ranging, the source modulation is linear in instantaneous frequency, the reference-arm field has many more photons than the target-return field, and the time-of-flight estimate is generated by balanced difference- detection of the beamsplitter output, followed by a frequency-domain peak search. This work focused on determining the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation algorithm when continuous-time photoncounting detectors are used. It is founded on a rigorous statistical characterization of the (random) photoelectron emission times as a function of the incident optical field, including the deleterious effects caused by dark current and dead time. These statistics enable derivation of the Cramr-Rao lower bound (CRB) on the accuracy of FMCW ranging, and derivation of the ML estimator, whose performance approaches this bound at high photon flux. The estimation algorithm was developed, and its optimality properties were shown in simulation. Experimental data show that it performs better than the conventional estimation algorithms used. The demonstrated improvement is a factor of 1.414 over frequency-domainbased estimation. If the target interrogating photons and the local reference field photons are costed equally, the optimal allocation of photons between these two arms is to have them equally distributed. This is different than the state of the art, in which the local field is stronger than the target return. The optimal processing of the photocurrent processes at the outputs of the two detectors is to perform log-matched filtering followed by a summation and peak detection. This implies that neither difference detection, nor Fourier-domain peak detection, which are the staples of the state-of-the-art systems, is optimal when a weak local oscillator is employed

Inline-Crossflow Coupled Vortex Induced Vibrations of Long Flexible Cylinders

The inline motion of long flexible cylinders caused by Vortex Induced Vibrations (VIV) has been long neglected due to its small amplitude compared to the cross-flow response amplitude. However, the inline motion has a major impact on fatigue life due to its higher frequency (second harmonic) and more importantly, because it triggers a third harmonic stress component in the crossflow direction along with a broad-band frequency stress component. We introduce an inline response prediction module to VIVA, a VIV response prediction program widely used in the offshore industry, to be able to consequently predict the higher harmonic and chaotic VIV response characteristics of flexible cylinders. Extensive forced inline and combined inline-crossflow experiments were employed to provide hydrodynamic coefficient databases for input to VIVA, in addition to existing crossflow hydrodynamic coefficients. The Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP) experimental data were used to validate this prediction methodology.BP-MIT Major Projects Progra

Coupled Inline-Cross Flow VIV Hydrodynamic Coefficients Database

Vortex Induced Vibrations (VIV) cause major fatigue damage to long slender bodies and have been extensively studied in the past decades. While most of the past research focused on the cross flow direction, it was recently shown that the inline motion in the direction of the flow has a major impact on the fatigue life damage due to its higher frequency (second harmonic) and more importantly, its coupling with the crossflow motion, which triggers a third harmonic stress component in the cross flow direction. In this paper, the coupled inline-crossflow VIV problem is addressed from semiempirical modeling of fluid forces. Extensive fine grid forced inline-crossflow VIV experiments were designed and carried out in the MIT towing tank. An inline-crossflow VIV hydrodynamics coefficients database was newly constructed using the experimental results and it is expected to be useful for other semi empirical programs predicting coupled inlinecrossflow VIV in the field. Several key hydrodynamic coefficients in the database, including lift force coefficients, drag force coefficients and added mass coefficients, were systematically analyzed. The coefficients in the crossflow and the inline directions were found to have strong dependency on the phase between the inline and crossflow motions.BP-MIT Major Program

Research on Elementary, Middle, and Secondary Earth and Space Sciences Teacher Education

In order to fully engage with the vision of the Framework for K-12 Science Education and the NGSS, our nation needs a diverse and well prepared K-12 science teacher workforce. And in order for ESS to gain equal status with other sciences, the geoscience community must ensure that the K-12 science teacher workforce is adequately prepared to teach ESS core knowledge and practices. This is a challenging endeavor and complicated by the fact that the K-12 teacher education landscape is highly variable across institutions in terms of how much ESS content is included, how programs are structured, and how ESS fits into the larger institutional context. Teacher education exists in a complex landscape that involve many domains of research. This theme chapter focuses on teacher education research that most directly aligns to the undergraduate teaching and learning experience. Three grand challenges emerged from discussion and reflections on the existing literature and are poised to guide future research on undergraduate K-12 teacher education

Effects of Sample Disturbance and Consolidation Procedures on Cyclic Strengths of Intermediate Soils

Sampling and testing of soils to measure engineering properties, such as monotonic and cyclic undrained shear strengths, requires an understanding of the potential effects of sampling disturbance and the selection of appropriate laboratory testing procedures. For clays, past research has provided insights on how sampling methods and laboratory testing procedures can be used in practice to assess and minimize sample disturbance effects. For sands, past research has shown that conventional tube sampling techniques cause excessive disturbance to the soil fabric, such that subsequent measurement of monotonic or cyclic strengths can be greatly in error and misleading. For intermediate soils, the effects of disturbance and consolidation procedures on monotonic and cyclic strengths are not well understood. In the present study, a test protocol was developed to assess the effects that disturbance during sample extrusion, trimming, and mounting have on subsequent measurements of compressibility, monotonic undrained strength, and cyclic undrained strength. Detailed laboratory tests were performed on tube samples from deposits of low-plasticity silty clay, for which conventional sampling and testing were expected to work reasonably well, and low-plasticity clayey sand, for which the effects of sample disturbance were of primary concern. Test results using this protocol for these two soils are presented and discussed