Foresight as a key enabler of innovation in the economy. Introduction to the topical collection

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Building foresight capacity: toward a foresight competency model

This article introduces the Foresight Competency Model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. It describes how other fields have used competency models to define what their professionals do, documents how the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) developed this model, explains the interrelated features of the model, and suggests ways that organizations can use the model to enhance the foresight capacity of their talent

Emerging practices in foresight and their use in STI policy

Foresight, a major methodological tool in the STI policy toolbox, has recently featured new directions in methodological development, becoming influenced by progress in information and communication technologies and online tools. However, no overview of these directions has been available so far. Based on a literature review, an interactive workshop, and an international expert survey as well as expert interviews, the research presented here attempts to shed light onto some of the relevant issues by providing a structured overview of recent changes in order to further the debate on the future directions of methodological development in foresight. The paper outlines four clusters of emerging approaches in foresight:Integrated qualitative and quantitative approaches, IT-based and automated foresight, experiential foresight including new forms of communication and interaction such as visualization and gaming, and open and crowd-sourced approaches. The benefits and challenges of the approaches known so far are categorized and summarized, and areas of potential use for each of the clusters in STI contexts are identified

Scenario planning with integrated quantification : managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building

Purpose: This paper makes a case for the benefits of quantified scenarios as a foresight tool for strategic planning. First it aims to set the context of quantification approaches for strategic planning in foresight. Within world models, qualitative scenarios allow for a contingency perspective of the future, however their potential to be linked to strategic planning in corporate foresight is limited. In contrast to complex world models, forecasts on key indicators are easily applied to strategy processes, but lack the necessary capability to recognise uncertainty and decision points. The paper seeks to argue for a new participative and pragmatic approach in order to bridge the gap between the opposing approaches and aims to show how this quantification approach can be integrated with scenario construction on an operational level. Design/methodology/approach: The authors discuss a quantitative scenario process and argue for its suitability to corporate foresight. They then describe a range of leanings from various foresight projects that have successfully applied quantified scenarios to strategic planning. Findings: Quantified scenarios can increase the impact foresight thinking has on corporate strategic planning. Research limitations/implications: The paper outlines the methods and tools of quantified corporate foresight, it does not include empirical evidence or concrete case studies. Practical implications: The approach outlined here can be used in corporate foresight projects in order to improve the use of scenario planning for strategy. Originality/value: This paper is the first one to outline a process for scenario quantification within corporate foresight