Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis

The 2000/2001 Turkish crisis was one of the most impressive crises that hit the emerging market economies in the late 90s. The characteristic of this crisis is not only its violence but also its suddenness. We observe two rapid crisis sequences which are different from recent financial crisis examples. The analysis of the Turkish crisis in the literature generally presents an analytical aspect that only relates the stylized facts of the crisis omitting a strong econometric basis. This paper goes further: it presents two models (OLS and Logit) which will test the implication level of the macroeconomic and financial variables in the outbreak of the crisis.Currency Crisis; Banking System Fragility; Third Generation Crisis Model; Turkey

Deep learning for the early detection of harmful algal blooms and improving water quality monitoring

Climate change will affect how water sources are managed and monitored. The frequency of algal blooms will increase with climate change as it presents favourable conditions for the reproduction of phytoplankton. During monitoring, possible sensory failures in monitoring systems result in partially filled data which may affect critical systems. Therefore, imputation becomes necessary to decrease error and increase data quality. This work investigates two issues in water quality data analysis: improving data quality and anomaly detection. It consists of three main topics: data imputation, early algal bloom detection using in-situ data and early algal bloom detection using multiple modalities.The data imputation problem is addressed by experimenting with various methods with a water quality dataset that includes four locations around the North Sea and the Irish Sea with different characteristics and high miss rates, testing model generalisability. A novel neural network architecture with self-attention is proposed in which imputation is done in a single pass, reducing execution time. The self-attention components increase the interpretability of the imputation process at each stage of the network, providing knowledge to domain experts.After data curation, algal activity is predicted using transformer networks, between 1 to 7 days ahead, and the importance of the input with regard to the output of the prediction model is explained using SHAP, aiming to explain model behaviour to domain experts which is overlooked in previous approaches. The prediction model improves bloom detection performance by 5% on average and the explanation summarizes the complex structure of the model to input-output relationships. Performance improvements on the initial unimodal bloom detection model are made by incorporating multiple modalities into the detection process which were only used for validation purposes previously. The problem of missing data is also tackled by using coordinated representations, replacing low quality in-situ data with satellite data and vice versa, instead of imputation which may result in biased results

Training of surveying course in Dicle University faculty of architecture

AbstractBeing one of the first professions humanity obtained in the groove of civilization, architecture is a residence designing work in simplest definition. In Turkey training of architecture started first with “Sanayi-i Nefise Mektebi” in 1883. Being one of the 35 architecture departments in Turkey, Dicle University Department of Architecture maintains education-training in the province of Diyarbakır as an institution sole since 1984 and with Mardin Artuklu University Department of Architecture since 2010 in the Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia Region. Architecture training in Dicle University teaches on one hand the designing of the new and modern structures and to benefit from and protect the designs of cultural properties that reach to modern day with the transmission of hundreds of years of accumulation to this day on the other. While equivalent courses are taught in the Architecture Faculties of our country, particularly Surveying Techniques course in which the historical environment and monuments are examined and documented evolved into a course drawing to local factors.The course being as the 3rd class course in Faculties of Architectures is taught with the active participation of the student, teacher and citizens in Diyarbakır which highly houses the cultural richness. Field works are executed as the overflow of a studio to the street in which the whole neighborhood takes part in. Executed in each spring term, this course is reinforced with a trip made to the nearing provinces or towns. The acquisitions obtained with the course of Surveying Techniques which is a protection and documentation course of students coming from various cultural environments and getting architecture training shall be made with the created area of interest and with the assessment of education-training. With this concern, a survey study was made with 50 students who successfully completed the Surveying Techniques course in 3rd class of Diyarbakır Dicle University Department of Architecture in order to search for the answers of the following questions;Before they were registered in the Department of Architecture what were their points of view on historical properties in architectural sense?How they find the training they had in the course of Surveying Techniques (Relief Classes) and could they question this training?Did they experience a conversion period after they had the course of surveying techniques?What kind of impact did the street and education leave on the structure and residents trainings?Would they like to make study regarding the protection and restoration in their field of profession they reach after the training of architecture?A questionnaire study with 50 students, who have successfully completed the Surveying Techniques lecture in the Architecture Department of Diyarbakır Dicle University in order to search the answers of these questions, has been performed. The acquisitions of the Surveying Techniques lecture with the results obtained have been tried to put into existence, by evaluating these questionnaires

Early Warning Indicators of the 2000-2001 Turkish Financial Crisis: A Twin Crisis Prediction Model

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome of the Turkish crisis. We aim to determine which factors have led Turkey to experience this crisis and to gain deeper insight into its nature.Currency Crisis; Banking System Fragility; Third Generation Crisis Model; Turkey

Les Indicateurs d'Alerte de la Crise Financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie: Un Modèle de Prévision de Crise Jumelle

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome of the Turkish crisis. We aim to determine which factors have led Turkey to experience this crisis and to gain deeper insight into its nature

Les Indicateurs d'Alerte de la Crise Financière de 2000-2001 en Turquie: Un Modèle de Prévision de Crise Jumelle

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome of the Turkish crisis. We aim to determine which factors have led Turkey to experience this crisis and to gain deeper insight into its nature

Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis

The 2000/2001 Turkish crisis was one of the most impressive crises that hit the emerging market economies in the late 90s. The characteristic of this crisis is not only its violence but also its suddenness. We observe two rapid crisis sequences which are different from recent financial crisis examples. The analysis of the Turkish crisis in the literature generally presents an analytical aspect that only relates the stylized facts of the crisis omitting a strong econometric basis. This paper goes further: it presents two models (OLS and Logit) which will test the implication level of the macroeconomic and financial variables in the outbreak of the crisis

NATURAL CONVECTION IN A CAVITY WITH A BLOCK MOUNTED ON IT

Düşey duvarına blok monte edilmiş oyuk içerisinde, bloğun yeri ve boyutunun doğal taşınım üzerindeki etkisi sayısal olarak incelenmiştir. Bloklar tamamen yalıtımlı ve blok yerleştirilmiş düşey duvarın diğer duvara göre daha sıcak olduğu kabul edilmiştir. Problem için zamana bağlı olmayan çözümler elde edilmiştir. Hesaplamalar Rayleigh sayısının 104<Ra<106 değerleri için yapılmıştır. Düşey duvara yerleştirilen bloğun doğal taşınım akış hareketi ve ısı transferini büyük ölçüde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. In this study natural convection in a cavity with a block mounted on a vertical wall was investigated numerically. The effects of the placement and, the dimensions of block on natural convection were studied. The block mounted vertical wall was warmer than the outer vertical wall and block itself was insulated perfectly. A SIMPLEM algorithm was used based on finite control volume approach for calculations. Calculations were performed in the range of 103<Ra<105. It was found that the block mounted on the wall have significant effect on natural convection heat transfer and flow field

Evolution of the zirconium alloy Zr-1Nb defect structure after cold rolling

Zirconium alloys are actively used in nuclear power engineering. During the operation of these alloys, it is necessary to know the change in structural, mechanical and physical characteristics when using material in corrosive environments. In this regard, it is necessary to study the occurrence of certain defects in the material and their effect. Such defects include dislocations. This study is aimed to study the processes of the appearance and distribution of dislocations in a material by positron annihilation spectroscopy. As a result of this work, the lifetime of positrons in the dislocation of zirconium was determined and the character of dislocation distribution at different degrees of deformation was presented

Towards the Automatic Extraction of Plant Traits from Textual Descriptions

Many ecological restoration programmes are informed by evidence coming from empirical research. Specifically, such programmes analyse species traits in order to differentiate species that are suitable for restoration from unsuitable ones. Indeed, understanding plant traits (and their relationships with each other) informs research into vegetation modelling and environmental change prediction, which in turn help in answering many ecological questions. In 2006, the Center for Tropical Forest Science (CTFS) formulated recommendations in support of their research programme, the foremost of which is the creation of trait databases by building upon published information catalogued by existing herbaria. In this work, we aim to enrich World Flora Online (WFO), a web-based inventory of known plant species, by integrating trait information contained in data sets coming from botanical institutions all over the world. This poses a few challenges, as trait information tends to be buried within verbose textual descriptions and do not conform with conventions of writing. Specifically, they typically do not come in the form of full sentences and look like long-winded enumerations of various types of plant attributes or characteristics. Such descriptions are difficult to search and understand unless decomposed into meaningful units. In order to decompose textual descriptions of plant species into spans pertaining to specific types of attributes, we have developed a machine learning-based approach to automatic text segmentation. Casting the problem as a sequence labelling task, we have investigated a number of probabilistic classifiers including conditional random fields (CRFs), hidden Markov models (HMMs) and naïve Bayes (NB). To train our models, we utilised data contributed by the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) which contain traits labelled as one of the following trait categories: morphology, habitat and distribution. To help the models discriminate between these categories, we designed features capturing word characteristics (e.g., n-grams at the character and word level), context (i.e., surrounding words within a predefined window), as well as domain knowledge (i.e., words that match terms in plant-related ontologies). In this way, we can automatically elucidate exactly which parts of the original descriptions pertain to plant traits such as morphology, habitat or distribution. By applying the resulting models on textual descriptions coming from several botanical institutes, we can facilitate the automatic population of WFO with plant traits for a number of species