Applying system dynamics modeling to foster a cause-and-effect perspective in dealing with behavioral distortions associated with a city's performance measurement programs

This paper aims to show how applying system dynamics methodology to performance management can provide a powerful modeling perspective enabling public sector organizations to prevent, detect, and counteract behavioral distortions associated with performance measurement. A dynamic performance management approach is able to support performance management system designers in outlining and implementing a consistent set of measures that can allow public sector decision-makers to pursue sustainable organizational learning and development. This perspective implies a major shift from a static to a dynamic picture of organizational processes and results. It means framing delays between causes and effects, feedback loops, and trade-offs in time and space associated with alternative scenarios. It also means understanding how different policy levers impact the accumulation and depletion of strategic resources over time, and determining how performance drivers affect end results. An exemplar application of this perspective is outlined in relation to municipal crime-control policies. Unintended behavioral consequences generated by the implementation of the CompStat program (New York Police Department) on reward and performance management systems are framed through the "lenses" of dynamic performance management

Incorporating DNA Sequencing into Current Prenatal Screening Practice for Down's Syndrome

PMCID: PMC3604109This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

First-trimester or second-trimester screening, or both, for Down's syndrome

BACKGROUND: It is uncertain how best to screen pregnant women for the presence of fetal Down's syndrome: to perform first-trimester screening, to perform second-trimester screening, or to use strategies incorporating measurements in both trimesters.METHODS: Women with singleton pregnancies underwent first-trimester combined screening (measurement of nuchal translucency, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A [PAPP-A], and the free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin at 10 weeks 3 days through 13 weeks 6 days of gestation) and second-trimester quadruple screening (measurement of alpha-fetoprotein, total human chorionic gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol, and inhibin A at 15 through 18 weeks of gestation). We compared the results of stepwise sequential screening (risk results provided after each test), fully integrated screening (single risk result provided), and serum integrated screening (identical to fully integrated screening, but without nuchal translucency).RESULTS: First-trimester screening was performed in 38,167 patients; 117 had a fetus with Down's syndrome. At a 5 percent false positive rate, the rates of detection of Down's syndrome were as follows: with first-trimester combined screening, 87 percent, 85 percent, and 82 percent for measurements performed at 11, 12, and 13 weeks, respectively; with second-trimester quadruple screening, 81 percent; with stepwise sequential screening, 95 percent; with serum integrated screening, 88 percent; and with fully integrated screening with first-trimester measurements performed at 11 weeks, 96 percent. Paired comparisons found significant differences between the tests, except for the comparison between serum integrated screening and combined screening.CONCLUSIONS: First-trimester combined screening at 11 weeks of gestation is better than second-trimester quadruple screening but at 13 weeks has results similar to second-trimester quadruple screening. Both stepwise sequential screening and fully integrated screening have high rates of detection of Down's syndrome, with low false positive rates

The origin of dust in galaxies revisited: the mechanism determining dust content

The origin of cosmic dust is a fundamental issue in planetary science. This paper revisits the origin of dust in galaxies, in particular, in the Milky Way, by using a chemical evolution model of a galaxy composed of stars, interstellar medium, metals (elements heavier than helium), and dust. We start from a review of time-evolutionary equations of the four components, and then, we present simple recipes for the stellar remnant mass and yields of metal and dust based on models of stellar nucleosynthesis and dust formation. After calibrating some model parameters with the data from the solar neighborhood, we have confirmed a shortage of the stellar dust production rate relative to the dust destruction rate by supernovae if the destruction efficiency suggested by theoretical works is correct. If the dust mass growth by material accretion in molecular clouds is active, the observed dust amount in the solar neighborhood is reproduced. We present a clear analytic explanation of the mechanism for determining dust content in galaxies after the activation of accretion growth: a balance between accretion growth and supernova destruction. Thus, the dust content is independent of the uncertainty of the stellar dust yield after the growth activation. The timing of the activation is determined by a critical metal mass fraction which depends on the growth and destruction efficiencies. The solar system formation seems to have occurred well after the activation and plenty of dust would have existed in the proto-solar nebula.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Case-Control Study of Fetal Microchimerism and Breast Cancer

Prior pregnancy is known to protect against development of breast cancer. Recent studies have demonstrated that pregnancy has the capacity to establish small numbers of immunologically active fetal-derived cells in the mother, a phenomenon known as fetal microchimerism (FMc). We asked whether presence of FMc, routinely acquired during pregnancy, is a protective factor for breast cancer.DNA extracts from peripheral blood specimens were obtained from a population-based case-control study of risk factors for breast cancer in women 21 to 45 years old. Specimens were tested with quantitative PCR for presence and concentrations of male DNA presumed to derive from prior pregnancies with a male fetus. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated with consideration of multiple established reproductive and environmental risk factors for breast cancer. FMc results were generated on 99 parous women, 54 with primary invasive breast cancer and 45 general population controls. FMc prevalence was 56% (25/45) and 26% (14/54) in controls and cases, respectively. Women harboring FMc were less likely to have had breast cancer (OR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.11-0.83; p = 0.02, adjusting for age, number of children, birth of a son, history of miscarriage, and total DNA tested). In addition, FMc concentrations were higher in controls versus cases (p = 0.01). Median concentrations were 2 (0-78) and 0 (0-374) fetal genomes/10(6) maternal genomes in controls and cases, respectively.Results suggest that the enigma of why some parous women are not afforded protection from breast cancer by pregnancy might in part be explained by differences in FMc. Mechanistic studies of FMc-derived protection against breast cancer are warranted

Assessment of the capacity to consent to treatment in patients admitted to acute medical wards

BACKGROUND: Assessment of capacity to consent to treatment is an important legal and ethical issue in daily medical practice. In this study we carefully evaluated the capacity to consent to treatment in patients admitted to an acute medical ward using an assessment by members of the medical team, the specific Silberfeld's score, the MMSE and an assessment by a senior psychiatrist. METHODS: Over a 3 month period, 195 consecutive patients of an internal medicine ward in a university hospital were included and their capacity to consent was evaluated within 72 hours of admission. RESULTS: Among the 195 patients, 38 were incapable of consenting to treatment (unconscious patients or severe cognitive impairment) and 14 were considered as incapable of consenting by the psychiatrist (prevalence of incapacity to consent of 26.7%). Agreement between the psychiatrist's evaluation and the Silberfeld questionnaire was poor (sensitivity 35.7%, specificity 91.6%). Experienced clinicians showed a higher agreement (sensitivity 57.1%, specificity 96.5%). A decision shared by residents, chief residents and nurses was the best predictor for agreement with the psychiatric assessment (sensitivity 78.6%, specificity 94.3%). CONCLUSION: Prevalence of incapacity to consent to treatment in patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward is high. While the standardized Silberfeld questionnaire and the MMSE are not appropriate for the evaluation of the capacity to consent in this setting, an assessment by the multidisciplinary medical team concurs with the evaluation by a senior psychiatrist

Noninvasive Prenatal Diagnosis of Fetal Trisomy 21 by Allelic Ratio Analysis Using Targeted Massively Parallel Sequencing of Maternal Plasma DNA

BACKGROUND: Plasma DNA obtained from a pregnant woman contains a mixture of maternal and fetal DNA. The fetal DNA proportion in maternal plasma is relatively consistent as determined using polymorphic genetic markers across different chromosomes in euploid pregnancies. For aneuploid pregnancies, the observed fetal DNA proportion measured using polymorphic genetic markers for the aneuploid chromosome would be perturbed. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of analyzing single nucleotide polymorphisms using targeted massively parallel sequencing to detect such perturbations in mothers carrying trisomy 21 fetuses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: DNA was extracted from plasma samples collected from fourteen pregnant women carrying singleton fetuses. Hybridization-based targeted sequencing was used to enrich 2 906 single nucleotide polymorphism loci on chr7, chr13, chr18 and chr21. Plasma DNA libraries with and without target enrichment were analyzed by massively parallel sequencing. Genomic DNA samples of both the mother and fetus for each case were genotyped by single nucleotide polymorphism microarray analysis. For the targeted regions, the mean sequencing depth of the enriched samples was 225-fold higher than that of the non-enriched samples. From the targeted sequencing data, the ratio between fetus-specific and shared alleles increased by approximately 2-fold on chr21 in the paternally-derived trisomy 21 case. In comparison, the ratio is decreased by approximately 11% on chr21 in the maternally-derived trisomy 21 cases but with much overlap with the ratio of the euploid cases. Computer simulation revealed the relationship between the fetal DNA proportion, the number of informative alleles and the depth of sequencing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Targeted massively parallel sequencing of single nucleotide polymorphism loci in maternal plasma DNA is a potential approach for trisomy 21 detection. However, the method appears to be less robust than approaches using non-polymorphism-based counting of sequence tags in plasma

Abundance, movements and biodiversity of flying predatory insects in crop and non-crop agroecosystems

[EN] Predatory insects are key natural enemies that can highly reduce crops pest damage. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the movements of flying predatory insects in agroecosystems throughout the year. In particular, it is still unclear how these predators move from crop to non-crop habitats, which are the preferred habitats to overwinter and to spread during the spring and if these predators leave or stay after chemical treatments. Here, the Neuroptera, a generalist, highly mobile, flying predator order of insects, was selected as model. We studied the effects of farming management and the efficiency of edge shelterbelts, ground cover vegetation, and fruit trees canopy on holding flying predatory insects in Mediterranean traditional agroecosystems. Seasonal movements and winter effects were also assessed. We evaluated monthly nine fruit agroecosystems, six organic, and three pesticides sprayed, of 0.5-1 ha in eastern Spain during 3 years using two complementary methods, yellow sticky traps and aspirator. Results show surprisingly that the insect abundance was highest in pesticide sprayed systems, with 3.40 insects/sample versus 2.32 insects/sample in organic systems. The biodiversity indices were highest in agroecosystems conducted under organic management, with S of 4.68 and D of 2.34. Shelterbelts showed highest biodiversity indices, S of 3.27 and D of 1.93, among insect habitats. Insect species whose adults were active during the winter preferred fruit trees to spend all year round. However, numerous species moved from fruit trees to shelterbelts to overwinter and dispersed into the orchard during the following spring. The ground cover vegetation showed statistically much lower attractiveness for flying predatory insects than other habitats. 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