Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Qualitative Environmental Health Research: An Analysis of the Literature, 1991-2008

BACKGROUND. Recent articles have advocated for the use of qualitative methods in environmental health research. Qualitative research uses nonnumeric data to understand people's opinions, motives, understanding, and beliefs about events or phenomena. OBJECTIVE. In this analysis of the literature, I report the use of qualitative methods and data in the study of the relationship between environmental exposures and human health. DATA SOURCES. A primary search on ISI Web of Knowledge/Web of Science for peer-reviewed journal articles dated from 1991 through 2008 included the following three terms: qualitative, environ*, and health. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are described. DATA EXTRACTION. Searches resulted in 3,155 records. Data were extracted and findings of articles analyzed to determine where and by whom qualitative environmental health research is conducted and published, the types of methods and analyses used in qualitative studies of environmental health, and the types of information qualitative data contribute to environmental health. DATA SYNTHESIS. Ninety-one articles met inclusion criteria. These articles were published in 58 different journals, with a maximum of eight for a single journal. The results highlight a diversity of disciplines and techniques among researchers who used qualitative methods to study environmental health, with most studies relying on one-on-one interviews. Details of the analyses were absent from a large number of studies. Nearly all of the studies identified increased scientific understanding of lay perceptions of environmental health exposures. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. Qualitative data are published in traditionally quantitative environmental health studies to a limited extent. However, this analysis demonstrates the potential of qualitative data to improve understanding of complex exposure pathways, including the influence of social factors on environmental health, and health outcomes.National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R25 ES012084, P42ES007381

High levels of contamination and antimicrobial-resistant non-typhoidal Salmonella serovars on pig and poultry farms in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam.

We investigated the prevalence, diversity, and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profiles of non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) and associated risk factors on 341 pig, chicken, and duck farms in Dong Thap province (Mekong Delta, Vietnam). Sampling was stratified by species, district (four categories), and farm size (three categories). Pooled faeces, collected using boot swabs, were tested using ISO 6575: 2002 (Annex D). Isolates were serogrouped; group B isolates were tested by polymerase chain reaction to detect S. Typhimurium and (monophasic) serovar 4,[5],12:i:- variants. The farm-level adjusted NTS prevalence was 64·7%, 94·3% and 91·3% for chicken, duck and pig farms, respectively. Factors independently associated with NTS were duck farms [odds ratio (OR) 21·2], farm with >50 pigs (OR 11·9), pig farm with 5-50 pigs (OR 4·88) (vs. chickens), and frequent rodent sightings (OR 2·3). Both S. Typhimurium and monophasic S. Typhimurium were more common in duck farms. Isolates had a high prevalence of resistance (77·6%) against tetracycline, moderate resistance (20-30%) against chloramphenicol, sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim, ampicillin and nalidixic acid, and low resistance (<5%) against ciprofloxacin and third-generation cephalosporins. Multidrug resistance (resistance against ⩾3 classes of antimicrobial) was independently associated with monophasic S. Typhimurium and other group B isolates (excluding S. Typhimurium) and pig farms. The unusually high prevalence of NTS on Mekong Delta farms poses formidable challenges for control

The aging Canadian population and hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction: projection to 2020

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The risk of experiencing an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) increases with age and Canada's population is aging. The objective of this analysis was to examine trends in the AMI hospitalization rate in Canada between 2002 and 2009 and to estimate the potential increase in the number of AMI hospitalizations over the next decade.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Aggregated data on annual AMI hospitalizations were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information for all provinces and territories, except Quebec, for 2002/03 and 2009/10. Using these data in a Poisson regression model to control for age, gender and year, the rate of AMI hospitalizations was extrapolated between 2010 and 2020. The extrapolated rate and Statistics Canada population projections were used to estimate the number of AMI hospitalizations in 2020.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The rates of AMI hospitalizations by gender and age group showed a decrease between 2002 and 2009 in patients aged ≥ 65 years and relatively stable rates in those aged < 64 years in both males and females. However, the total number of AMI hospitalizations in Canada (excluding Quebec) is projected to increase by 4667 from 51847 in 2009 to 56514 in 2020, a 9.0% increase. Inflating this number to account for the unavailable Quebec data results in an increase of approximately 6200 for the whole of Canada. This would amount to an additional cost of between $46 and$54 million and sensitivity analyses indicate that it could be between $36 and$65 million.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite projected decreasing or stable rates of AMI hospitalization, the number of hospitalizations is expected to increase substantially as a result of the aging of the Canadian population. The cost of these hospitalizations will be substantial. An increase of this extent in the number of AMI hospitalizations and the ensuing costs would significantly impact the already over-stretched Canadian healthcare system.</p

How many people have had a myocardial infarction? Prevalence estimated using historical hospital data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health administrative data are increasingly used to examine disease occurrence. However, health administrative data are typically available for a limited number of years – posing challenges for estimating disease prevalence and incidence. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of people previously hospitalized with an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using 17 years of hospital data and to create a registry of people with myocardial infarction.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Myocardial infarction prevalence in Ontario 2004 was estimated using four methods: 1) observed hospital admissions from 1988 to 2004; 2) observed (1988 to 2004) and extrapolated unobserved events (prior to 1988) using a "back tracing" method using Poisson models; 3) DisMod incidence-prevalence-mortality model; 4) self-reported heart disease from the population-based Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) in 2000/2001. Individual respondents of the CCHS were individually linked to hospital discharge records to examine the agreement between self-report and hospital AMI admission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>170,061 Ontario residents who were alive on March 31, 2004, and over age 20 years survived an AMI hospital admission between 1988 to 2004 (cumulative incidence 1.8%). This estimate increased to 2.03% (95% CI 2.01 to 2.05) after adding extrapolated cases that likely occurred before 1988. The estimated prevalence appeared stable with 5 to 10 years of historic hospital data. All 17 years of data were needed to create a reasonably complete registry (90% of estimated prevalent cases). The estimated prevalence using both DisMod and self-reported "heart attack" was higher (2.5% and 2.7% respectively). There was poor agreement between self-reported "heart attack" and the likelihood of having an observed AMI admission (sensitivity = 63.5%, positive predictive value = 54.3%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Estimating myocardial infarction prevalence using a limited number of years of hospital data is feasible, and validity increases when unobserved events are added to observed events. The "back tracing" method is simple, reliable, and produces a myocardial infarction registry with high estimated "completeness" for jurisdictions with linked hospital data.</p

The Unfolded Protein Response Is Not Necessary for the G1/S Transition, but It Is Required for Chromosome Maintenance in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

BACKGROUND: The unfolded protein response (UPR) is a eukaryotic signaling pathway, from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) to the nucleus. Protein misfolding in the ER triggers the UPR. Accumulating evidence links the UPR in diverse aspects of cellular homeostasis. The UPR responds to the overall protein synthesis capacity and metabolic fluxes of the cell. Because the coupling of metabolism with cell division governs when cells start dividing, here we examined the role of UPR signaling in the timing of initiation of cell division and cell cycle progression, in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We report that cells lacking the ER-resident stress sensor Ire1p, which cannot trigger the UPR, nonetheless completed the G1/S transition on time. Furthermore, loss of UPR signaling neither affected the nutrient and growth rate dependence of the G1/S transition, nor the metabolic oscillations that yeast cells display in defined steady-state conditions. Remarkably, however, loss of UPR signaling led to hypersensitivity to genotoxic stress and a ten-fold increase in chromosome loss. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken together, our results strongly suggest that UPR signaling is not necessary for the normal coupling of metabolism with cell division, but it has a role in genome maintenance. These results add to previous work that linked the UPR with cytokinesis in yeast. UPR signaling is conserved in all eukaryotes, and it malfunctions in a variety of diseases, including cancer. Therefore, our findings may be relevant to other systems, including humans

Coevolved mutations reveal distinct architectures for two core proteins in the bacterial flagellar motor

Switching of bacterial flagellar rotation is caused by large domain movements of the FliG protein triggered by binding of the signal protein CheY to FliM. FliG and FliM form adjacent multi-subunit arrays within the basal body C-ring. The movements alter the interaction of the FliG C-terminal (FliGC) "torque" helix with the stator complexes. Atomic models based on the Salmonella entrovar C-ring electron microscopy reconstruction have implications for switching, but lack consensus on the relative locations of the FliG armadillo (ARM) domains (amino-terminal (FliGN), middle (FliGM) and FliGC) as well as changes during chemotaxis. The generality of the Salmonella model is challenged by the variation in motor morphology and response between species. We studied coevolved residue mutations to determine the unifying elements of switch architecture. Residue interactions, measured by their coevolution, were formalized as a network, guided by structural data. Our measurements reveal a common design with dedicated switch and motor modules. The FliM middle domain (FliMM) has extensive connectivity most simply explained by conserved intra and inter-subunit contacts. In contrast, FliG has patchy, complex architecture. Conserved structural motifs form interacting nodes in the coevolution network that wire FliMM to the FliGC C-terminal, four-helix motor module (C3-6). FliG C3-6 coevolution is organized around the torque helix, differently from other ARM domains. The nodes form separated, surface-proximal patches that are targeted by deleterious mutations as in other allosteric systems. The dominant node is formed by the EHPQ motif at the FliMMFliGM contact interface and adjacent helix residues at a central location within FliGM. The node interacts with nodes in the N-terminal FliGc α-helix triad (ARM-C) and FliGN. ARM-C, separated from C3-6 by the MFVF motif, has poor intra-network connectivity consistent with its variable orientation revealed by structural data. ARM-C could be the convertor element that provides mechanistic and species diversity.JK was supported by Medical Research Council grant U117581331. SK was supported by seed funds from Lahore University of Managment Sciences (LUMS) and the Molecular Biology Consortium

Current treatment options for recurrent nasopharyngeal cancer

Loco-regional control rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has improved significantly in the past decade. However, local recurrence still represents a major cause of mortality and morbidity in advanced stages, and management of local failure remains a challenging issue in NPC. The best salvage treatment for local recurrent NPC remains to be determined. The options include brachytherapy, external radiotherapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, and nasopharyngectomy, either alone or in different combinations. In this article we will discuss the different options for salvage of locally recurrent NPC. Retreatment of locally recurrent NPC using radiotherapy, alone or in combination with other treatment modalities, as well as surgery, can result in long-term local control and survival in a substantial proportion of patients. For small-volume recurrent tumors (T1–T2) treated with external radiotherapy, brachytherapy or stereotactic radiosurgery, comparable results to those obtained with surgery have been reported. In contrast, treatment results of advanced-stage locally recurrent NPC are generally more satisfactory with surgery (with or without postoperative radiotherapy) than with reirradiation