A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study

Latent class modelling with a time-to-event distal outcome: A comparison of one, two and three-step approaches

Latent class methods can be used to identify unobserved subgroups which differ in their observed data. Researchers are often interested in outcomes for the identified subgroups and in some disciplines time-to-event outcome measures are common, e.g., overall survival in oncology. In this study Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the empirical properties of latent class effect estimates on a time-to-event distal outcome using one, two and three-step approaches. Both standard and inclusive bias-corrected three-step approaches are considered. One-step latent class effect estimates are shown to be superior to the evaluated alternatives. Both the two-step approach and a standard three-step approach, where subjects are partially assigned to latent classes, produced unbiased estimates with nominal confidence interval coverage when latent classes were well separated, but not otherwise. Keywords: latent class analysis, time-to-event, two-step, joint modeling</p

The interplay of intrinsic and extrinsic bounded noises in genetic networks

After being considered as a nuisance to be filtered out, it became recently clear that biochemical noise plays a complex role, often fully functional, for a genetic network. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic noises on genetic networks has intensively been investigated in last ten years, though contributions on the co-presence of both are sparse. Extrinsic noise is usually modeled as an unbounded white or colored gaussian stochastic process, even though realistic stochastic perturbations are clearly bounded. In this paper we consider Gillespie-like stochastic models of nonlinear networks, i.e. the intrinsic noise, where the model jump rates are affected by colored bounded extrinsic noises synthesized by a suitable biochemical state-dependent Langevin system. These systems are described by a master equation, and a simulation algorithm to analyze them is derived. This new modeling paradigm should enlarge the class of systems amenable at modeling. We investigated the influence of both amplitude and autocorrelation time of a extrinsic Sine-Wiener noise on: $(i)$ the Michaelis-Menten approximation of noisy enzymatic reactions, which we show to be applicable also in co-presence of both intrinsic and extrinsic noise, $(ii)$ a model of enzymatic futile cycle and $(iii)$ a genetic toggle switch. In $(ii)$ and $(iii)$ we show that the presence of a bounded extrinsic noise induces qualitative modifications in the probability densities of the involved chemicals, where new modes emerge, thus suggesting the possibile functional role of bounded noises

Issues potentially affecting quality of life arising from long-term medicines use: a qualitative study

Background Polypharmacy is increasing and managing large number of medicines may create a burden for patients. Many patients have negative views of medicines and their use can adversely affect quality of life. No studies have specifically explored the impact of general long-term medicines use on quality of life. Objective To determine the issues which patients taking long-term medicines consider affect their day-to-day lives, including quality of life. Setting Four primary care general practices in North West England Methods Face-to-face interviews with adults living at home, prescribed four or more regular medicines for at least 1 year. Interviewees were identified from primary care medical records and purposively selected to ensure different types of medicines use. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results Twenty-one interviews were conducted and analysed. Patients used an average of 7.8 medicines, 51 % were preventive, 40 % for symptom relief and 9 % treatment. Eight themes emerged: relationships with health professionals, practicalities, information, efficacy, side effects, attitudes, impact and control. Ability to discuss medicines with health professionals varied and many views were coloured by negative experiences, mainly with doctors. All interviewees had developed routines for using multiple medicines, some requiring considerable effort. Few felt able to exert control over medicines routines specified by health professionals. Over half sought additional information about medicines whereas others avoided this, trusting in doctors to guide their medicines use. Patients recognised their inability to assess efficacy for many medicines, notably those used for prophylaxis. All were concerned about possible side effects and some had poor experiences of discussing concerns with doctors. Medicines led to restrictions on social activities and personal life to the extent that, for some, life can revolve around medicines. Conclusion There is a multiplicity and complexity of issues surrounding medicines use, which impact on day-to-day lives for patients with long-term conditions. While most patients adapt to long-term medicines use, others did so at some cost to their quality of life

Risk factors and outcomes for the Q151M and T69 insertion HIV-1 resistance mutations in historic UK data

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of HIV-1 resistance to antiretroviral therapies (ART) has declined in high-income countries over recent years, but drug resistance remains a substantial concern in many low and middle-income countries. The Q151M and T69 insertion (T69i) resistance mutations in the viral reverse transcriptase gene can reduce susceptibility to all nucleoside/tide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors, motivating the present study to investigate the risk factors and outcomes associated with these mutations. METHODS: We considered all data in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database for blood samples obtained in the period 1997-2014. Where available, treatment history and patient outcomes were obtained through linkage to the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study. A matched case-control approach was used to assess risk factors associated with the appearance of each of the mutations in ART-experienced patients, and survival analysis was used to investigate factors associated with viral suppression. A further analysis using matched controls was performed to investigate the impact of each mutation on survival. RESULTS: A total of 180 patients with Q151M mutation and 85 with T69i mutation were identified, almost entirely from before 2006. Occurrence of both the Q151M and T69i mutations was strongly associated with cumulative period of virological failure while on ART, and for Q151M there was a particular positive association with use of stavudine and negative association with use of boosted-protease inhibitors. Subsequent viral suppression was negatively associated with viral load at sequencing for both mutations, and for Q151M we found a negative association with didanosine use but a positive association with boosted-protease inhibitor use. The results obtained in these analyses were also consistent with potentially large associations with other drugs. Analyses were inconclusive regarding associations between the mutations and mortality, but mortality was high for patients with low CD4 at detection. CONCLUSIONS: The Q151M and T69i resistance mutations are now very rare in the UK. Our results suggest that good outcomes are possible for people with these mutations. However, in this historic sample, viral load and CD4 at detection were important factors in determining prognosis

The Hydration Structure at Yttria-Stabilized Cubic Zirconia (110)-Water Interface with Sub-Angstrom Resolution

The interfacial hydration structure of yttria-stabilized cubic zirconia (110) surface in contact with water was determined with ~0.5&amp;#8201;&amp;Aring; resolution by high-resolution X-ray reflectivity measurement. The terminal layer shows a reduced electron density compared to the following substrate lattice layers, which indicates there are additional defects generated by metal depletion as well as intrinsic oxygen vacancies, both of which are apparently filled by water species. Above this top surface layer, two additional adsorbed layers are observed forming a characteristic interfacial hydration structure. The first adsorbed layer shows abnormally high density as pure water and likely includes metal species, whereas the second layer consists of pure water. The observed interfacial hydration structure seems responsible for local equilibration of the defective surface in water and eventually regulating the long-term degradation processes. The multitude of water interactions with the zirconia surface results in the complex but highly ordered interfacial structure constituting the reaction front.ope

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

從中文作文看學生的情意表達能力: 個案研究

本文是一個追蹤研究，首先收集研究對象中一至中三的作文103篇，並採用現象學研究法（Phenomenological Research ）的意念進行研究。現象學研究法的重點在於深入了解人類自然的生活，把沒有虛飾的生活體驗和意義呈現出來。本文主要運用兩種分析工具：威堅遜模式（Wilkinson， 1980）及內容分析（text analysis）。論文研究的目的：分析受試者初中情意表達能力的層次。 This article is a longitudinal research which monitors 103 essays of a student from F.1 to F.3 by adopting 'phenomenological research'. Phenomenological research is based on the deep understanding of human life, presenting us with the truest life experiences without disguise. The ability to express emotion of a student as reflected from his Chinese composition. Two models are employed in this research: Wilkinson’s (1980) and text analysis. The objectives of this research is to analyse the abilities of junior secondary school students to express emotions.link_to_OA_fulltex

Influenza nucleoprotein delivered with aluminium salts protects mice from an influenza virus that expresses an altered nucleoprotein sequence

Influenza virus poses a difficult challenge for protective immunity. This virus is adept at altering its surface proteins, the proteins that are the targets of neutralizing antibody. Consequently, each year a new vaccine must be developed to combat the current recirculating strains. A universal influenza vaccine that primes specific memory cells that recognise conserved parts of the virus could prove to be effective against both annual influenza variants and newly emergent potentially pandemic strains. Such a vaccine will have to contain a safe and effective adjuvant that can be used in individuals of all ages. We examine protection from viral challenge in mice vaccinated with the nucleoprotein from the PR8 strain of influenza A, a protein that is highly conserved across viral subtypes. Vaccination with nucleoprotein delivered with a universally used and safe adjuvant, composed of insoluble aluminium salts, provides protection against viruses that either express the same or an altered version of nucleoprotein. This protection correlated with the presence of nucleoprotein specific CD8 T cells in the lungs of infected animals at early time points after infection. In contrast, immunization with NP delivered with alum and the detoxified LPS adjuvant, monophosphoryl lipid A, provided some protection to the homologous viral strain but no protection against infection by influenza expressing a variant nucleoprotein. Together, these data point towards a vaccine solution for all influenza A subtypes