Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Background Human cystic (CE) and alveolar (AE) echinococcoses are zoonotic parasitic diseases that can be influenced by environmental variability and change through effects on the parasites, animal intermediate and definitive hosts, and human populations. We aimed to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of human echinococcoses in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China between January 1994 and December 2013, and examine associations between these infections and indicators of environmental variability and change, including large-scale landscape regeneration undertaken by the Chinese authorities. Methods Data on the number of human echinococcosis cases were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective survey conducted in NHAR for the period 1 January 1994 through 31 December 2013. High-resolution imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI was used to create single date land cover maps. Meteorological data were also collected for the period January 1980 to December 2013 to derive time series of bioclimatic variables. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between annual cases of CE and AE and environmental variables. Results Annual CE incidence demonstrated a negative temporal trend and was positively associated with winter mean temperature at a 10-year lag. There was also a significant, nonlinear effect of annual mean temperature at 13-year lag. The findings also revealed a negative association between AE incidence with temporal moving averages of bareland/artificial surface coverage and annual mean temperature calculated for the period 11–15 years before diagnosis and winter mean temperature for the period 0–4 years. Unlike CE risk, the selected environmental covariates accounted for some of the spatial variation in the risk of AE. Conclusions The present study contributes towards efforts to understand the role of environmental factors in determining the spatial heterogeneity of human echinococcoses. The identification of areas with high incidence of CE and AE may assist in the development and refinement of interventions for these diseases, and enhanced environmental change risk assessment

Natural Infection of the Ground Squirrel (Spermophilus spp.) with Echinococcus granulosus in China

Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis are important zoonotic pathogens that cause serious disease in humans. E. granulosus can be transmitted through sylvatic cycles, involving wild carnivores and ungulates; or via domestic cycles, usually involving dogs and farm livestock. E. multilocularis is primarily maintained in a sylvatic life-cycle between foxes and rodents. As part of extensive investigations that we undertook to update available epidemiological data and to monitor the transmission patterns of both E. granulosus and E. mulilocularis in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR) in northwest China, we captured small mammals on the southern slopes of Yueliang Mountain, Xiji, an area co-endemic for human alveolar echinococcosis and cystic echinococcosis. Of 500 trapped small mammals (mainly ground squirrels; Spermophilus dauricus/alashanicus), macroscopic cyst-like lesions (size range 1–10 mm) were found on the liver surface of approximately 10% animals. One of the lesions was shown by DNA analysis to be caused by E. granulosus and by histology to contain viable protoscoleces. This is the first report of a natural infection of the ground squirrel with E. granulosus. We have no definitive proof of a cycle involving ground squirrels and dogs/foxes but it is evident that there is active E. granulosus transmission occurring in this area

Echinococcus multilocularis infection in the field vole (Microtus agrestis): an ecological model for studies on transmission dynamics

We propose a model involving the oral inoculation of Echinococcus multilocularis eggs in a vole species and examine the infection dynamics in a dose-response experiment. Defined doses, 100 (n = 8), 500 (n = 5) and 1000 (n = 5) of E. multilocularis eggs were used to inoculate Microtus agrestis. Four female C57BL/6j mice were inoculated with 1000 eggs as positive controls. The groups inoculated with 100 and 500 eggs exhibited significantly higher lesion numbers, and relatively smaller lesion size was observed in the 1000 dose group. Undetectable abortive lesions may be responsible for some form of resource limitation early in the infection, resulting in lower lesion counts and size in the 1000 dose group. The C57BL/6j mice exhibited significantly fewer lesions than M. agrestis. The feasibility of measuring corticosterone (which has been shown to downregulate Th1 cytokines) in rodent hair and tumour necrosis factor (TNF) production in spleen cells was demonstrated by a positive correlation between corticosterone levels and higher lesion counts and TNF production in C57BL/6j, respectively. These results suggest that M. agrestis is more prone to a Th2 immune response than C57BL/6j, which is associated with E. multilocularis susceptibility and may explain why the parasite develops more slowly in murine models. This is the first data to suggest that M. agrestis is capable of supporting E. multilocularis transmission and thus may be suited as a model to describe the infection dynamics in an intermediate host that affects transmission under natural conditions

Mapping soil transmitted helminths and schistosomiasis under uncertainty: a systematic review and critical appraisal of evidence

Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1) the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2) how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain.We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator). Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches.None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting uncertainty, since they are relevant to inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration