Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Reviewing the review:a qualitative assessment of the peer review process in surgical journals

Abstract Background Despite rapid growth of the scientific literature, no consensus guidelines have emerged to define the optimal criteria for editors to grade submitted manuscripts. The purpose of this project was to assess the peer reviewer metrics currently used in the surgical literature to evaluate original manuscript submissions. Methods Manuscript grading forms for 14 of the highest circulation general surgery-related journals were evaluated for content, including the type and number of quantitative and qualitative questions asked of peer reviewers. Reviewer grading forms for the seven surgical journals with the higher impact factors were compared to the seven surgical journals with lower impact factors using Fisher’s exact tests. Results Impact factors of the studied journals ranged from 1.73 to 8.57, with a median impact factor of 4.26 in the higher group and 2.81 in the lower group. The content of the grading forms was found to vary considerably. Relatively few journals asked reviewers to grade specific components of a manuscript. Higher impact factor journal manuscript grading forms more frequently addressed statistical analysis, ethical considerations, and conflict of interest. In contrast, lower impact factor journals more commonly requested reviewers to make qualitative assessments of novelty/originality, scientific validity, and scientific importance. Conclusion Substantial variation exists in the grading criteria used to evaluate original manuscripts submitted to the surgical literature for peer review, with differential emphasis placed on certain criteria correlated to journal impact factors

Differential activation of inflammatory pathways in A549 type II pneumocytes by Streptococcus pneumoniae strains with different adherence properties

BACKGROUND: Adherence of Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria to lung cells is a first step in the progression from asymptomatic carriage to pneumonia. Adherence abilities vary widely among S. pneumoniae patient isolates. In this study, the binding properties of S. pneumoniae isolates and the effects of binding on activation of the Nuclear Factor-Kappa-B (NFκB) pathway and cytokine secretion by type II pneumocytes were measured. METHODS: Mechanisms of high- and low-binding S. pneumoniae adherence to A549 cells were investigated by blocking putative receptors on bacteria and host cells with antibody and by eluting choline-binding proteins off of bacterial surfaces. NFκB activation was measured by western blot and immunocytochemistry and cytokine secretion was detected by a protein array. RESULTS: This study shows that S. pneumoniae isolates from pneumonia patients (n = 298) can vary by as much as 1000-fold in their ability to bind to human lung epithelial cells. This difference resulted in differential activation of the NFκB pathway. High-, but not low-binding S. pneumoniae used Choline-binding protein A (CbpA) to bind to complement component C3 on epithelial cell surfaces. Interleukin-8 (IL-8) was the only cytokine secreted by cells treated with either low- or high-binding S. pneumoniae. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that S. pneumoniae clinical isolates are not homogeneous in their interaction with host epithelial cells. The differential activation of host cells by high- and low-binding S. pneumoniae strains could have implications for the treatment of pneumococcal pneumonia and for vaccine development

Using a Markov simulation model to assess the impact of changing trends in coronary heart disease incidence on requirements for coronary artery revascularization procedures in Western Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The population incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been declining in Australia and many other countries. This decline has been due to reduced population levels of risk factors for CHD and improved medical care for those at higher risk of CHD. However, there are signs that there may be a slowing down or even reversal in the decline of CHD incidence due to the 'obesity epidemic' and other factors and this will have implications for the requirements for surgical treatments for those with CHD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a validated Markov simulation model applied to the population of Western Australia, different CHD incidence trend scenarios were developed to explore the effect of changing CHD incidence on requirements for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), together known as coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most dominant component of CHD incidence is the risk of CHD hospital admission for those with no history of CHD and if this risk leveled off and the trends in all other risks continued unchanged, then the projected numbers of CABGs and PCIs are only minimally changed. Further, the changes in the projected numbers remained small even when this risk was increased by 20 percent (although it is an unlikely scenario). However, when the other CHD incidence components that had also been declining, namely, the risk of CABG and that of CHD death for those with no history of CHD, were also projected to level off as these were declining in 1998-2000 and the risk of PCI for those with no history of CHD (which was already increasing) was projected to further increase by 5 percent, it had a substantial effect on the projected numbers of CARPs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There needs to be dramatic changes to several CHD incidence components before it has a substantial impact on the projected requirements for CARPs. Continued monitoring of CHD incidence and also the mix of initial presentation of CHD incidence is required in order to understand changes to future CARP requirements.</p

To add or not to add a new treatment arm to a multiarm study: A decision-theoretic framework.

Multiarm clinical trials, which compare several experimental treatments against control, are frequently recommended due to their efficiency gain. In practise, all potential treatments may not be ready to be tested in a phase II/III trial at the same time. It has become appealing to allow new treatment arms to be added into on-going clinical trials using a "platform" trial approach. To the best of our knowledge, many aspects of when to add arms to an existing trial have not been explored in the literature. Most works on adding arm(s) assume that a new arm is opened whenever a new treatment becomes available. This strategy may prolong the overall duration of a study or cause reduction in marginal power for each hypothesis if the adaptation is not well accommodated. Within a two-stage trial setting, we propose a decision-theoretic framework to investigate when to add or not to add a new treatment arm based on the observed stage one treatment responses. To account for different prospect of multiarm studies, we define utility in two different ways; one for a trial that aims to maximise the number of rejected hypotheses; the other for a trial that would declare a success when at least one hypothesis is rejected from the study. Our framework shows that it is not always optimal to add a new treatment arm to an existing trial. We illustrate a case study by considering a completed trial on knee osteoarthritis

Diabetes in pregnancy among indigenous women in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States: a method for systematic review of studies with different designs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetes in pregnancy, which includes gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), is associated with poor outcomes for both mother and infant during pregnancy, at birth and in the longer term. Recent international guidelines recommend changes to the current GDM screening criteria. While some controversy remains, there appears to be consensus that women at high risk of T2DM, including indigenous women, should be offered screening for GDM early in pregnancy, rather than waiting until 24-28 weeks as is current practice. A range of criteria should be considered before changing screening practice in a population sub-group, including: prevalence, current practice, acceptability and whether adequate treatment pathways and follow-up systems are available. There are also specific issues related to screening in pregnancy and indigenous populations. The evidence that these criteria are met for indigenous populations is yet to be reported. A range of study designs can be considered to generate relevant evidence for these issues, including epidemiological, observational, qualitative, and intervention studies, which are not usually included within a single systematic review. The aim of this paper is to describe the methods we used to systematically review studies of different designs and present the evidence in a pragmatic format for policy discussion.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The inclusion criteria will be broad to ensure inclusion of the critical perspectives of indigenous women. Abstracts of the search results will be reviewed by two persons; the full texts of all potentially eligible papers will be reviewed by one person, and 10% will be checked by a second person for validation. Data extraction will be standardised, using existing tools to identify risks for bias in intervention, measurement, qualitative studies and reviews; and adapting criteria for appraising risk for bias in descriptive studies. External validity (generalisability) will also be appraised. The main findings will be synthesised according to the criteria for population-based screening and summarised in an adapted "GRADE" tool.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This will be the first systematic review of all the published literature on diabetes in pregnancy among indigenous women. The method provides a pragmatic approach for synthesizing relevant evidence from a range of study designs to inform the current policy discussion.</p

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors: an economic modelling study from Australia

BackgroundA large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.MethodsSimulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.ResultsOver the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.ConclusionsReductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.<br /

Association Between Nutritional Status and the Immune response in HIV + Patients under HAART: Protocol for a Systematic Review.

Over 850 million people worldwide and 200 million adults in Sub-Saharan Africa suffer from malnutrition. Countries most affected by HIV are also stricken by elevated rates of food insecurity and malnutrition. HIV infection and insufficient nutritional intake are part of a vicious cycle that contributes to immunodeficiency and negative health outcomes. However, the effect of the overlap between HIV infection and undernutrition on the immune response following antiretroviral initiation remains unclear. A possible explanation could be the lack of consensus concerning the definition and assessment of nutritional status. Our objectives are to investigate the existence of an association between undernutrition and immune response at antiretroviral treatment initiation and the following year in low- and middle-income countries where malnutrition is most prevalent. Our systematic review will identify studies originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published from 1996 onwards, through searches in MEDLINE (PubMed interface), EMBASE (OVID interface), Cochrane Central (OVID interface) and grey literature. No language restrictions will be applied. We will seek out studies of any design investigating the association between the nutritional status (for example, undernourished versus well nourished) and the immune response, either in terms of CD4 count or immune failure, in seropositive patients initiating antiretroviral therapy or in their first year of treatment. Two reviewers will independently screen articles, extract data and assess scientific quality using standardized forms and published quality assessment tools tailored for each study design. Where feasible, pooled measures of association will be obtained through meta-analyses. Results will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. This protocol has been registered in the PROSPERO database (registration number: CRD42014005961). Undernutrition and weight loss are prevalent amongst highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated patients in LMICs and contribute to excess early mortality. A possible intermediate pathway could be poor immune reconstitution secondary to deficient nutritional status. In the face of limited access to second line treatments, raising HIV resistance and cut backs to HIV programs, it is crucial to identify the factors associated with suboptimal response and therapeutic failure in order to better customize the care strategies employed in LMICs

Variations and inter-relationship in outcome from emergency admissions in England: a retrospective analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics from 2005-2010.

BACKGROUND: The quality of care delivered and clinical outcomes of care are of paramount importance. Wide variations in the outcome of emergency care have been suggested, but the scale of variation, and the way in which outcomes are inter-related are poorly defined and are critical to understand how best to improve services. This study quantifies the scale of variation in three outcomes for a contemporary cohort of patients undergoing emergency medical and surgical admissions. The way in which the outcomes of different diagnoses relate to each other is investigated. METHODS: A retrospective study using the English Hospital Episode Statistics 2005-2010 with one-year follow-up for all patients with one of 20 of the commonest and highest-risk emergency medical or surgical conditions. The primary outcome was in-hospital all-cause risk-standardised mortality rate (in-RSMR). Secondary outcomes were 1-year all-cause risk-standardised mortality rate (1 yr-RSMR) and 28-day all-cause emergency readmission rate (RSRR). RESULTS: 2,406,709 adult patients underwent emergency medical or surgical admissions in the groups of interest. Clinically and statistically significant variations in outcome were observed between providers for all three outcomes (p < 0.001). For some diagnoses including heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and fractured neck of femur, more than 20% of hospitals lay above the upper 95% control limit and were statistical outliers. The risk-standardised outcomes within a given hospital for an individual diagnostic group were significantly associated with the aggregated outcome of the other clinical groups. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-level risk-standardised outcomes for emergency admissions across a range of specialties vary considerably and cross traditional speciality boundaries. This suggests that global institutional infra-structure and processes of care influence outcomes. The implications are far reaching, both in terms of investigating performance at individual hospitals and in understanding how hospitals can learn from the best performers to improve outcomes