The global aerosol-cloud first indirect effect estimated using MODIS, MERRA, and AeroCom

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) represent a significant source of forcing uncertainty in global climate models (GCMs). Estimates of radiative forcing due to ACI in Fifth Assessment Report range from −0.5 to −2.5 W m−2. A portion of this uncertainty is related to the first indirect, or Twomey, effect whereby aerosols act as nuclei for cloud droplets to condense upon. At constant liquid water content this increases the number of cloud droplets (Nd) and thus increases the cloud albedo. In this study we use remote-sensing estimates of Nd within stratocumulus regions in combination with state-of-the-art aerosol reanalysis from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) to diagnose how aerosols affect Nd. As in previous studies, Nd is related to sulfate mass through a power law relationship. The slope of the log-log relationship between Nd and SO4 in maritime stratocumulus is found to be 0.31, which is similar to the range of 0.2–0.8 from previous in situ studies and remote-sensing studies in the pristine Southern Ocean. Using preindustrial emissions models, the change in Nd between preindustrial and present day is estimated. Nd is inferred to have more than tripled in some regions. Cloud properties from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to estimate the radiative forcing due to this change in Nd. The Twomey effect operating in isolation is estimated to create a radiative forcing of −0.97 ± 0.23 W m−2 relative to the preindustrial era

Mixed-phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models

Increasing optical depth poleward of 45° is a robust response to warming in global climate models. Much of this cloud optical depth increase has been hypothesized to be due to transitions from ice‐dominated to liquid‐dominated mixed‐phase cloud. In this study, the importance of liquid‐ice partitioning for the optical depth feedback is quantified for 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. All models show a monotonic partitioning of ice and liquid as a function of temperature, but the temperature at which ice and liquid are equally mixed (the glaciation temperature) varies by as much as 40 K across models. Models that have a higher glaciation temperature are found to have a smaller climatological liquid water path (LWP) and condensed water path and experience a larger increase in LWP as the climate warms. The ice‐liquid partitioning curve of each model may be used to calculate the response of LWP to warming. It is found that the repartitioning between ice and liquid in a warming climate contributes at least 20% to 80% of the increase in LWP as the climate warms, depending on model. Intermodel differences in the climatological partitioning between ice and liquid are estimated to contribute at least 20% to the intermodel spread in the high‐latitude LWP response in the mixed‐phase region poleward of 45°S. It is hypothesized that a more thorough evaluation and constraint of global climate model mixed‐phase cloud parameterizations and validation of the total condensate and ice‐liquid apportionment against observations will yield a substantial reduction in model uncertainty in the high‐latitude cloud response to warming

Converting Endangered Species Categories to Probabilities of Extinction for Phylogenetic Conservation Prioritization

Categories of imperilment like the global IUCN Red List have been transformed to probabilities of extinction and used to rank species by the amount of imperiled evolutionary history they represent (e.g. by the Edge of Existence programme). We investigate the stability of such lists when ranks are converted to probabilities of extinction under different scenarios.Using a simple example and computer simulation, we show that preserving the categories when converting such list designations to probabilities of extinction does not guarantee the stability of the resulting lists.Care must be taken when choosing a suitable transformation, especially if conservation dollars are allocated to species in a ranked fashion. We advocate routine sensitivity analyses

The cometary composition of a protoplanetary disk as revealed by complex cyanides

Observations of comets and asteroids show that the Solar Nebula that spawned our planetary system was rich in water and organic molecules. Bombardment brought these organics to the young Earth's surface, seeding its early chemistry. Unlike asteroids, comets preserve a nearly pristine record of the Solar Nebula composition. The presence of cyanides in comets, including 0.01% of methyl cyanide (CH3CN) with respect to water, is of special interest because of the importance of C-N bonds for abiotic amino acid synthesis. Comet-like compositions of simple and complex volatiles are found in protostars, and can be readily explained by a combination of gas-phase chemistry to form e.g. HCN and an active ice-phase chemistry on grain surfaces that advances complexity[3]. Simple volatiles, including water and HCN, have been detected previously in Solar Nebula analogues - protoplanetary disks around young stars - indicating that they survive disk formation or are reformed in situ. It has been hitherto unclear whether the same holds for more complex organic molecules outside of the Solar Nebula, since recent observations show a dramatic change in the chemistry at the boundary between nascent envelopes and young disks due to accretion shocks[8]. Here we report the detection of CH3CN (and HCN and HC3N) in the protoplanetary disk around the young star MWC 480. We find abundance ratios of these N-bearing organics in the gas-phase similar to comets, which suggests an even higher relative abundance of complex cyanides in the disk ice. This implies that complex organics accompany simpler volatiles in protoplanetary disks, and that the rich organic chemistry of the Solar Nebula was not unique.Comment: Definitive version of the manuscript is published in Nature, 520, 7546, 198, 2015. This is the author's versio

Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of “moderate” and “extreme” El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST

Expense and benefit of neoadjuvant treatment in squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of neoadjuvant treatment (NT) prior to resection of squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus (SCCE) in terms of prolonged survival has not been proven by randomized trials. Facing considerable financial expenses and with concerns regarding the consumption of the patient's remaining survival time, this study aims to provide rationales for pretreating resection candidates. METHODS: From March 1986 to March 1999, patients undergoing resection for SCCE were documented prospectively. Since 1989, NT was offered to patients with mainly upper and middle third T3 or T4 tumors or T2 N1 stage who were fit for esophagectomy. Until 1993, NT consisted of chemotherapy. Since that time chemoradiation has also been applied. The parameters for expense and benefit of NT are costs, pretreatment time required, postoperative morbidity and mortality, clinical and histopathological response, and actuarial survival. RESULTS: Two hundred and three patients were treated, 170 by surgery alone and 33 by NT + surgery. Postoperative morbidity and mortality were 52% to 30% and 12% to 6%, respectively (p = n.s.). The response to NT was detected in 23 patients (70%). In 11 instances (33%), the primary tumor lesion was histopathologically eradicated. Survival following NT + surgery was significantly prolonged in node-positive patients with a median survival of 12 months to 19 months (p = 0.0193). The average pretreatment time was 113 ± 43 days, and reimbursement for NT to the hospital amounted to Euro 9.834. CONCLUSIONS: NT did not increase morbidity and mortality. Expenses for pretreatment, particularly time and costs, are considerable. However, taking into account that the results are derived from a non-randomized study, patients with regionally advanced tumor stages seem to benefit, as seen by their prolonged survival

A novel malaria vaccine candidate antigen expressed in Tetrahymena thermophila

Development of effective malaria vaccines is hampered by the problem of producing correctly folded Plasmodium proteins for use as vaccine components. We have investigated the use of a novel ciliate expression system, Tetrahymena thermophila, as a P. falciparum vaccine antigen platform. A synthetic vaccine antigen composed of N-terminal and C-terminal regions of merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-1) was expressed in Tetrahymena thermophila. The recombinant antigen was secreted into the culture medium and purified by monoclonal antibody (mAb) affinity chromatography. The vaccine was immunogenic in MF1 mice, eliciting high antibody titers against both N- and C-terminal components. Sera from immunized animals reacted strongly with P. falciparum parasites from three antigenically different strains by immunofluorescence assays, confirming that the antibodies produced are able to recognize parasite antigens in their native form. Epitope mapping of serum reactivity with a peptide library derived from all three MSP-1 Block 2 serotypes confirmed that the MSP-1 Block 2 hybrid component of the vaccine had effectively targeted all three serotypes of this polymorphic region of MSP-1. This study has successfully demonstrated the use of Tetrahymena thermophila as a recombinant protein expression platform for the production of malaria vaccine antigens

What is theoretical progress of science?

The epistemic conception of scientific progress equates progress with accumulation of scientific knowledge. I argue that the epistemic conception fails to fully capture scientific progress: theoretical progress, in particular, can transcend scientific knowledge in important ways. Sometimes theoretical progress can be a matter of new theories ‘latching better onto unobservable reality’ in a way that need not be a matter of new knowledge. Recognising this further dimension of theoretical progress is particularly significant for understanding scientific realism, since realism is naturally construed as the claim that science makes theoretical progress. Some prominent realist positions (regarding fundamental physics, in particular) are best understood in terms of commitment to theoretical progress that cannot be equated with accumulation of scientific knowledge

Busulphan is active against neuroblastoma and medulloblastoma xenografts in athymic mice at clinically achievable plasma drug concentrations

High-dose busulphan-containing chemotherapy regimens have shown high response rates in children with relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma, Ewing's sarcoma and medulloblastoma. However, the anti-tumour activity of busulfan as a single agent remains to be defined, and this was evaluated in athymic mice bearing advanced stage subcutaneous paediatric solid tumour xenografts. Because busulphan is highly insoluble in water, the use of several vehicles for enteral and parenteral administration was first investigated in terms of pharmacokinetics and toxicity. The highest bioavailability was obtained with busulphan in DMSO administered i.p. When busulphan was suspended in carboxymethylcellulose and given orally or i.p., the bioavailability was poor. Then, in the therapeutic experiments, busulphan in DMSO was administered i.p. on days 0 and 4. At the maximum tolerated total dose (50 mg kg−1), busulphan induced a significant tumour growth delay, ranging from 12 to 34 days in the three neuroblastomas evaluated and in one out of three medulloblastomas. At a dose level above the maximum tolerated dose, busulphan induced complete and partial tumour regressions. Busulphan was inactive in a peripheral primitive neuroectodermal tumour (PNET) xenograft. When busulphan pharmacokinetics in mice and humans were considered, the estimated systemic exposure at the therapeutically active dose in mice (113 μg h ml−1) was close to the mean total systemic exposure in children receiving high-dose busulphan (102.4 μg h ml−1). In conclusion, busulphan displayed a significant anti-tumour activity in neuroblastoma and medulloblastoma xenografts at plasma drug concentrations which can be achieved clinically in children receiving high-dose busulphan-containing regimens. 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Interstellar scintillation as the origin of rapid radio variability in the quasar J1819+3845

Quasars shine brightly due to the liberation of gravitational energy as matter falls onto a supermassive black hole in the centre of a galaxy. Variations in the radiation received from active galactic nuclei (AGN) are studied at all wavelengths, revealing the tiny dimensions of the region and the processes of fuelling the black hole. Some AGN are variable at optical and shorter wavelengths, and display radio outbursts over years and decades. These AGN often also show faster variations at radio wavelengths (intraday variability, IDV) which have been the subject of much debate. The simplest explanation, supported by a correlation in some sources between the optical (intrinsic) and faster radio variations, is that the rapid radio variations are intrinsic. However, this explanation implies physically difficult brightness temperatures, suggesting that the variations may be due to scattering of the incident radiation in the interstellar medium of our Galaxy. Here we present results which show unambiguously that the variations in one extreme case are due to interstellar scintillation. We also measure the transverse velocity of the scattering material, revealing a surprising high velocity plasma close to the Solar System