The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C

Interpreting changes in measles genotype: the contribution of chance, migration and vaccine coverage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In some populations, complete shifts in the genotype of the strain of measles circulating in the population have been observed, with given genotypes being replaced by new genotypes. Studies have postulated that such shifts may be attributable to differences between the fitness of the new and the old genotypes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of measles, simulating the effects of different levels of migration, vaccination coverage and importation of new genotypes on patterns in the persistence and replacement of indigenous genotypes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analyses illustrate that complete replacement in the genotype of the strain circulating in populations may occur because of chance. This occurred in >50% of model simulations, for levels of vaccination coverage and numbers of imported cases per year which are compatible with those observed in several Western European populations (>80% and >3 per million per year respectively) and for the given assumptions in the model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The interpretation of genotypic data, which are increasingly being collected in surveillance programmes, needs to take account of the underlying vaccination coverage and the level of the importation rate of measles cases into the population.</p

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application

Quantitative assessment of microbicide-induced injury in the ovine vaginal epithelium using confocal microendoscopy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The development of safe topical microbicides that can preserve the integrity of cervicovaginal tract epithelial barrier is of great interest as this may minimize the potential for increased susceptibility to STI infections. High resolution imaging to assess epithelial integrity in a noninvasive manner could be a valuable tool for preclinical testing of candidate topical agents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A quantitative approach using confocal fluorescence microendoscopy (CFM) for assessment of microbicide-induced injury to the vaginal epithelium was developed. Sheep were treated intravaginally with one of five agents in solution (PBS; 0.02% benzalkonium chloride (BZK); 0.2% BZK) or gel formulation (hydroxyethyl cellulose (HEC); Gynol II nonoxynol-9 gel (N-9)). After 24 hours the vaginal tract was removed, labeled with propidium iodide (PI), imaged, then fixed for histology. An automated image scoring algorithm was developed for quantitative assessment of injury and applied to the data set. Image-based findings were validated with histological visual gradings that describe degree of injury and measurement of epithelial thickness.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Distinct differences in PI staining were detected following BZK and N-9 treatment. Images from controls had uniformly distributed nuclei with defined borders, while those after BZK or N-9 showed heavily stained and disrupted nuclei, which increased in proportion to injury detected on histology. The confocal scoring system revealed statistically significant scores for each agent versus PBS controls with the exception of HEC and were consistent with histology scores of injury.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Confocal microendoscopy provides a sensitive, objective, and quantitative approach for non-invasive assessment of vaginal epithelial integrity and could serve as a tool for real-time safety evaluation of emerging intravaginal topical agents.</p

Actual and undiagnosed HIV prevalence in a community sample of men who have sex with men in Auckland, New Zealand

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of HIV infection and how this varies between subgroups is a fundamental indicator of epidemic control. While there has been a rise in the number of HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSM) in New Zealand over the last decade, the actual prevalence of HIV and the proportion undiagnosed is not known. We measured these outcomes in a community sample of MSM in Auckland, New Zealand.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was embedded in an established behavioural surveillance programme. MSM attending a gay community fair day, gay bars and sex-on-site venues during 1 week in February 2011 who agreed to complete a questionnaire were invited to provide an anonymous oral fluid specimen for analysis of HIV antibodies. From the 1304 eligible respondents (acceptance rate 48.5%), 1049 provided a matched specimen (provision rate 80.4%).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>HIV prevalence was 6.5% (95% CI: 5.1-8.1). After adjusting for age, ethnicity and recruitment site, HIV positivity was significantly elevated among respondents who were aged 30-44 or 45 and over, were resident outside New Zealand, had 6-20 or more than 20 recent sexual partners, had engaged in unprotected anal intercourse with a casual partner, had had sex with a man met online, or had injected drugs in the 6 months prior to survey. One fifth (20.9%) of HIV infected men were undiagnosed; 1.3% of the total sample. Although HIV prevalence did not differ by ethnicity, HIV infected non-European respondents were more likely to be undiagnosed. Most of the small number of undiagnosed respondents had tested for HIV previously, and the majority believed themselves to be either "definitely" or "probably" uninfected. There was evidence of continuing risk practices among some of those with known HIV infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first estimate of actual and undiagnosed HIV infection among a community sample of gay men in New Zealand. While relatively low compared to other countries with mature epidemics, HIV prevalence was elevated in subgroups of MSM based on behaviour, and diagnosis rates varied by ethnicity. Prevention should focus on raising condom use and earlier diagnosis among those most at risk, and encouraging safe behaviour after diagnosis.</p

The case for home based telehealth in pediatric palliative care: a systematic review

Background: Over the last decade technology has rapidly changed the ability to provide home telehealth services. At the same time, pediatric palliative care has developed as a small, but distinct speciality. Understanding the experiences of providing home telehealth services in pediatric palliative care is therefore important

Optimising care for patients with cognitive impairment and dementia following hip fracture

The global shift in demographics towards aging populations is leading to a commensurate increase in age-related disease and frailty. It is essential to optimise health services to meet current needs and prepare for anticipated future demands. This paper explores issues impacting on people living with cognitive impairment and/or dementia who experience a hip fracture and are cared for in acute settings. This is important given the high mortality and morbidity associated with this population. Given the current insufficiency of clear evidence on optimum rehabilitation of this patient group, this paper explored three key themes namely: recognition of cognitive impairment, response by way of training and education of staff to optimise care for this patient group and review of the importance of outcomes measures. Whilst there is currently insufficient evidence to draw conclusions about the optimal ways of caring for patients living with dementia following hip fracture, this paper concludes that future research should improve understanding of healthcare staff education to improve the outcomes for this important group of patients