Co-designing Indices for Tailored Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Malawi

In central and southern Malawi, climate variability significantly impacts agricultural production and food availability owing to a high dependence on rain-fed maize production. Seasonal climate forecast information has the potential to inform farmers' agricultural planning, thereby improving preparedness to extreme events. In this paper we describe and evaluate an approach to co-designing and testing agro-climatic indices for use in seasonal forecasts that are tailored to farmer-defined decision-making needs in three districts of central and southern Malawi. Specifically, we aim to (a) identify critical maize specific agro-climatic indices by engaging key stakeholders and farmers; (b) compare and triangulate these indices with the historical climate record in study districts; and (c) analyze empirical relationships between seasonal total rainfall and maize specific indices in order to assess the potential for forecasting them at appropriate seasonal timescales. The identified agro-climatic indices include critical temperature/rainfall thresholds that are directly associated with phenological stages of maize growth with direct implications for maize yield and quality. While there are statistically significant relationships between observed wet season rainfall totals and several agro-climatic indices (e.g., heavy rainfall days and dry spell), the forecast skill of the UK Met Office's coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5) over Malawi is currently low to provide confident predictions of total wet season rainfall and the agro-climatic indices correlated with it. We reflect on some of the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating farmers' information needs into a seasonal forecast process, through the use of agro-climatic indices

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Feasibility of trial procedures for a randomised controlled trial of a community based group exercise intervention for falls prevention for visually impaired older people: the VIOLET study

Background Visually impaired older people (VIOP) have a higher risk of falling than their sighted peers, and are likely to avoid physical activity. The aim was to adapt the existing Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme for VIOP, delivered in the community, and to investigate the feasibility of conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of this adapted intervention. Methods Two-centre randomised mixed methods pilot trial and economic evaluation of the adapted group-based FaME programme for VIOP versus usual care. A one hour exercise programme ran weekly over 12 weeks at the study sites (Newcastle and Glasgow), delivered by third sector (voluntary and community) organisations. Participants were advised to exercise at home for an additional two hours over the week. Those randomised to the usual activities group received no intervention. Outcome measures were completed at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks. The potential primary outcome was the Short Form Falls Efficacy Scale – International (SFES-I). Participants’ adherence was assessed by reviewing attendance records and self-reported compliance to the home exercises. Adherence with the course content (fidelity) by instructors was assessed by a researcher. Adverse events were collected in a weekly phone call. Results Eighteen participants, drawn from community-living VIOP were screened; 68 met the inclusion criteria; 64 participants were randomised with 33 allocated to the intervention and 31 to the usual activities arm. 94% of participants provided data at the 12 week visit and 92% at 24 weeks. Adherence was high. The intervention was found to be safe with 76% attending nine or more classes. Median time for home exercise was 50 min per week. There was little or no evidence that fear of falling, balance and falls risk, physical activity, emotional, attitudinal or quality of life outcomes differed between trial arms at follow-up. Conclusions The intervention, FaME, was implemented successfully for VIOP and all progression criteria for a main trial were met. The lack of difference between groups on fear of falling was unsurprising given it was a pilot study but there may have been other contributory factors including suboptimal exercise dose and apparent low risk of falls in participants. These issues need addressing for a future trial

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality

Clinical and radiographic outcomes of the treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis with segmental pedicle screws and combined local autograft and allograft bone for spinal fusion: a retrospective case series

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High morbidity has been reported with iliac crest bone graft harvesting; however, donor bone is typically necessary for posterior spinal fusion. Autograft bone combined with allograft may reduce the morbidity associated with iliac crest bone harvesting and improve the fusion rate. Our aim in this study was to determine the presence of complications, pseudarthrosis, non-union, and infection using combined <it>in situ </it>local autograft bone and freeze-dried cancellous allograft bone in patients undergoing posterior spinal fusion for the treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A combination of <it>in situ </it>local autograft bone and freeze-dried cancellous allograft blocks were used in 50 consecutive patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis treated by posterior fusion and Moss Miami pedicle screw instrumentation. Results were assessed clinically and radiographically and quality of life and functional outcome was evaluated by administration of a Chinese version of the SRS-22 survey.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 41 female and 9 male patients included for analysis with an average age of 14.7 years (range, 12-17). All patients had a minimum follow-up of 18 months (range, 18 to 40 months). The average preoperative Cobb angle was 49.8° (range, 40° to 86°). The average number of levels fused was 9.8 (range, 6-15). Patients had a minimum postoperative follow-up of 18 months. At final follow-up, the average Cobb angle correction was 77.8% (range, 43.4 to 92.5%). There was no obvious loss in the correction, and the average loss of correction was 1.1° (range, 0° to 4°). There was no pseudarthrosis and no major complications.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>In situ </it>autograft bone combined with allograft bone may be a promising method enhances spinal fusion in AIS treated with pedicle screw placement. By eliminating the need for iliac crest bone harvesting, significant morbidity may be avoided.</p

A systematic review of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer education and peer support in prisons.

BACKGROUND: Prisoners experience significantly worse health than the general population. This review examines the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of peer interventions in prison settings. METHODS: A mixed methods systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies, including qualitative and quantitative synthesis was conducted. In addition to grey literature identified and searches of websites, nineteen electronic databases were searched from 1985 to 2012. Study selection criteria were: Population: Prisoners resident in adult prisons and children resident in Young Offender Institutions (YOIs). INTERVENTION: Peer-based interventions Comparators: Review questions 3 and 4 compared peer and professionally led approaches. OUTCOMES: Prisoner health or determinants of health; organisational/ process outcomes; views of prison populations. STUDY DESIGNS: Quantitative, qualitative and mixed method evaluations. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies were included in the effectiveness review and one study in the cost-effectiveness review; most were of poor methodological quality. Evidence suggested that peer education interventions are effective at reducing risky behaviours, and that peer support services are acceptable within the prison environment and have a positive effect on recipients, practically or emotionally. Consistent evidence from many, predominantly qualitative, studies, suggested that being a peer deliverer was associated with positive effects. There was little evidence on cost-effectiveness of peer-based interventions. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence from a large number of studies that being a peer worker is associated with positive health; peer support services are also an acceptable source of help within the prison environment and can have a positive effect on recipients. Research into cost-effectiveness is sparse. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ref: CRD42012002349

Rapamycin and the transcription factor C/EBPβ as a switch in osteoclast differentiation: implications for lytic bone diseases

Lytic bone diseases and in particular osteoporosis are common age-related diseases characterized by enhanced bone fragility due to loss of bone density. Increasingly, osteoporosis poses a major global health-care problem due to the growth of the elderly population. Recently, it was found that the gene regulatory transcription factor CCAAT/enhancer binding protein beta (C/EBPβ) is involved in bone metabolism. C/EBPβ occurs as different protein isoforms of variable amino terminal length, and regulation of the C/EBPβ isoform ratio balance was found to represent an important factor in osteoclast differentiation and bone homeostasis. Interestingly, adjustment of the C/EBPβ isoform ratio by the process of translational control is downstream of the mammalian target of rapamycin kinase (mTOR), a sensor of the nutritional status and a target of immunosuppressive and anticancer drugs. The findings imply that modulating the process of translational control of C/EBPβ isoform expression could represent a novel therapeutic approach in osteolytic bone diseases, including cancer and infection-induced bone loss

Postnatal depression in Southern Brazil: prevalence and its demographic and socioeconomic determinants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies investigating the prevalence of postnatal depression (PND) show rates ranging from 5% to 36.7%. The investigation of age, race, educational levels, religion and income as risk factors for PND has yielded conflicting results. The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of PND in women residing in Southern Brazil and the associated risk factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is population-based cross-sectional study of women residing in Porto Alegre who delivered in June 2001. A sample of 271 participants were selected from the Record of Living Newborn Infants of the State Health Department (the official Brazilian database and stores the name and address of all women who give birth to living newborn infants) using a process based on pseudo-random numbers which choose a random sample from 2.000 records. Once the addresses were identified, the women were visited at their place of residence (home, hotel, boarding house and prison), with the interviews taking place between the 6^thand the 8^thweek after delivery.</p> <p>The association between the risk factors and PND was investigated through bivariate analysis using Pearson's chi-square test. Student's t-test was used to analyze the continuous variables. To identify independent risk factors, multivariate analysis was performed using hierarchical levels with a predefined model that took into account the time relationship between PND and the risk factors. Cox's regression was used to calculate the prevalence ratios.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The PND prevalence rate found was 20.7% (CI 95% 15.7 – 25.7). After adjusting for confounding variables, per capita income was found to have a significant association with PND.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of PND is higher than the figures found in most developed countries and similar to the figures found in developing countries. Differences in PND by regions or countries can be partially explained by the effect of income on the mediation of risk factors. In low income populations, women should be routinely evaluated for postnatal depression, and those with no partner or spouse are likely to require further care from health services and should be given the benefit of mental health prevention programs.</p

Rapid Environmental Change over the Past Decade Revealed by Isotopic Analysis of the California Mussel in the Northeast Pacific

The anthropogenic input of fossil fuel carbon into the atmosphere results in increased carbon dioxide (CO2) into the oceans, a process that lowers seawater pH, decreases alkalinity and can inhibit the production of shell material. Corrosive water has recently been documented in the northeast Pacific, along with a rapid decline in seawater pH over the past decade. A lack of instrumentation prior to the 1990s means that we have no indication whether these carbon cycle changes have precedence or are a response to recent anthropogenic CO2 inputs. We analyzed stable carbon and oxygen isotopes (δ13C, δ18O) of decade-old California mussel shells (Mytilus californianus) in the context of an instrumental seawater record of the same length. We further compared modern shells to shells from 1000 to 1340 years BP and from the 1960s to the present and show declines in the δ13C of modern shells that have no historical precedent. Our finding of decline in another shelled mollusk (limpet) and our extensive environmental data show that these δ13C declines are unexplained by changes to the coastal food web, upwelling regime, or local circulation. Our observed decline in shell δ13C parallels other signs of rapid changes to the nearshore carbon cycle in the Pacific, including a decline in pH that is an order of magnitude greater than predicted by an equilibrium response to rising atmospheric CO2, the presence of low pH water throughout the region, and a record of a similarly steep decline in δ13C in algae in the Gulf of Alaska. These unprecedented changes and the lack of a clear causal variable underscores the need for better quantifying carbon dynamics in nearshore environments

Establishing the reliability and validity of the Zagazig Depression Scale in a UK student population: an online pilot study

Background: It is thought that depressive disorders will be the second leading cause of disability worldwide by 2020. Recently, there is a steady increase in the number of university students diagnosed and treated as depression patients. It can be assumed that depression is a serious mental health problem for university students because it affects all age groups of the students either younger or older equally. The current study aims to establish the reliability and validity of the Zagazig Depression scale in a UK sample. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional online survey. A sample of 133 out of 275 undergraduate students from a range of UK Universities in the academic year 2008-2009, aged 20.3 ± 6.3 years old were recruited. A modified back translated version of Zagazig Depression scale was used. In order to validate the Zagazig Depression scale, participants were asked to complete the Patient Health Questionnaire. Statistical analysis includes Kappa analysis, Cronbach's alpha, Spearman's correlation analysis, and Confirmatory Factor analysis. Results: Using the recommended cut-off of Zagazig Depression scale for possible minor depression it was found that 30.3% of the students have depression and higher percentage was identified according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (37.4%). Females were more depressed. The mean ZDS score was 8.3 ± 4.2. Rates of depression increase as students get older. The reliability of The ZDS was satisfactory (Cronbach's alpha was .894). For validity, ZDS score was strongly associated with PHQ, with no significant difference (p-value > 0.05), with strong positive correlation (r = +.8, p-value < 0.01). Conclusion: The strong, significant correlation between the PHQ and ZDS, along with high internal consistency of the ZDS as a whole provides evidence that ZDS is a reliable measure of depressive symptoms and is promising for the use of the translated ZDS in a large-scale cross-culture study