COVID-19 Vaccination Prioritization Based on Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Number-Needed-to-Vaccinate to Prevent Death

The supply limitations of COVID-19 vaccines have led to the need to prioritize vaccine distribution. Obesity, diabetes and hypertension have been associated with an increased risk of severe COVID-19 infection. Approximately half as many individuals with a cardiovascular risk factor need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to prevent related death as compared with individuals without a risk factor. Adults with body-mass index ≥30kg/m2, diabetes or hypertension should be of a similar priority for COVID-19 vaccination to adults 10 years older with a body-mass index 20 to <30kg/m2, no diabetes and no hypertension

Negative discriminant states in N=4 supersymmetric string theories

Single centered BPS black hole solutions exist only when the charge carried by the black hole has positive discriminant. On the other hand the exact dyon spectrum in heterotic string theory compactified on T^6 is known to contain states with negative discriminant. We show that all of these negative discriminant states can be accounted for as two centered black holes. Thus after the contribution to the index from the two centered black holes is subtracted from the total microscopic index, the index for states with negative discriminant vanishes even for finite values of charges, in agreement with the results from the black hole side. Bound state metamorphosis -- which requires us to identify certain apparently different two centered configurations according to a specific set of rules -- plays a crucial role in this analysis. We also generalize these results to a class of CHL string theories.Comment: LaTeX file, 32 pages; v2: reference added; v3: added new section 3.

Counting all dyons in N =4 string theory

For dyons in heterotic string theory compactified on a six-torus, with electric charge vector Q and magnetic charge vector P, the positive integer I = g.c.d.(Q \wedge P) is an invariant of the U-duality group. We propose the microscopic theory for computing the spectrum of all dyons for all values of I, generalizing earlier results that exist only for the simplest case of I=1. Our derivation uses a combination of arguments from duality, 4d-5d lift, and a careful analysis of fermionic zero modes. The resulting degeneracy agrees with the black hole degeneracy for large charges and with the degeneracy of field-theory dyons for small charges. It naturally satisfies several physical requirements including integrality and duality invariance. As a byproduct, we also derive the microscopic (0,4) superconformal field theory relevant for computing the spectrum of five-dimensional Strominger-Vafa black holes in ALE backgrounds and count the resulting degeneracies

Discrete Information from CHL Black Holes

AdS_2/CFT_1 correspondence predicts that the logarithm of a Z_N twisted index over states carrying a fixed set of charges grows as 1/N times the entropy of the black hole carrying the same set of charges. In this paper we verify this explicitly by calculating the microscopic Z_N twisted index for a class of states in the CHL models. This demonstrates that black holes carry more information about the microstates than just the total degeneracy.Comment: LaTeX file, 24 pages; v2: references adde

A Twist in the Dyon Partition Function

In four dimensional string theories with N=4 and N=8 supersymmetries one can often define twisted index in a subspace of the moduli space which captures additional information on the partition function than the ones contained in the usual helicity trace index. We compute several such indices in type IIB string theory on K3 x T^2 and T^6, and find that they share many properties with the usual helicity trace index that captures the spectrum of quarter BPS states in N=4 supersymmetric string theories. In particular the partition function is a modular form of a subgroup of Sp(2,Z) and the jumps across the walls of marginal stability are controlled by the residues at the poles of the partition function. However for large charges the logarithm of this index grows as 1/n times the entropy of a black hole carrying the same charges where n is the order of the symmetry generator that is used to define the twisted index. We provide a macroscopic explanation of this phenomenon using quantum entropy function formalism. The leading saddle point corresponding to the attractor geometry fails to contribute to the twisted index, but a Z_n orbifold of the attractor geometry produces the desired contribution.Comment: LaTeX file, 35 pages; v2: references adde

BPS black holes, the Hesse potential, and the topological string

The Hesse potential is constructed for a class of four-dimensional N=2 supersymmetric effective actions with S- and T-duality by performing the relevant Legendre transform by iteration. It is a function of fields that transform under duality according to an arithmetic subgroup of the classical dualities reflecting the monodromies of the underlying string compactification. These transformations are not subject to corrections, unlike the transformations of the fields that appear in the effective action which are affected by the presence of higher-derivative couplings. The class of actions that are considered includes those of the FHSV and the STU model. We also consider heterotic N=4 supersymmetric compactifications. The Hesse potential, which is equal to the free energy function for BPS black holes, is manifestly duality invariant. Generically it can be expanded in terms of powers of the modulus that represents the inverse topological string coupling constant, $g_s$, and its complex conjugate. The terms depending holomorphically on $g_s$ are expected to correspond to the topological string partition function and this expectation is explicitly verified in two cases. Terms proportional to mixed powers of $g_s$ and $\bar g_s$ are in principle present.Comment: 28 pages, LaTeX, added comment

Logarithmic Corrections to Extremal Black Hole Entropy from Quantum Entropy Function

We evaluate the one loop determinant of matter multiplet fields of N=4 supergravity in the near horizon geometry of quarter BPS black holes, and use it to calculate logarithmic corrections to the entropy of these black holes using the quantum entropy function formalism. We show that even though individual fields give non-vanishing logarithmic contribution to the entropy, the net contribution from all the fields in the matter multiplet vanishes. Thus logarithmic corrections to the entropy of quarter BPS black holes, if present, must be independent of the number of matter multiplet fields in the theory. This is consistent with the microscopic results. During our analysis we also determine the complete spectrum of small fluctuations of matter multiplet fields in the near horizon geometry.Comment: LaTeX file, 52 pages; v2: minor corrections, references adde

ERK1/2 signaling dominates over RhoA signaling in regulating early changes in RNA expression induced by endothelin-1 in neonatal rat cardiomyocytes

Cardiomyocyte hypertrophy is associated with changes in gene expression. Extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1/2 (ERK1/2) and RhoA [activated by hypertrophic agonists (e.g. endothelin-1)] regulate gene expression and are implicated in the response, but their relative significance in regulating the cardiomyocyte transcriptome is unknown. Our aim was to establish the significance of ERK1/2 and/or RhoA in the early cardiomyocyte transcriptomic response to endothelin-1.Cardiomyocytes were exposed to endothelin-1 (1 h) with/without PD184352 (to inhibit ERK1/2) or C3 transferase (C3T, to inhibit RhoA). RNA expression was analyzed using microarrays and qPCR. ERK1/2 signaling positively regulated approximately 65% of the early gene expression response to ET-1 with a small (approximately 2%) negative effect, whereas RhoA signaling positively regulated approximately 10% of the early gene expression response to ET-1 with a greater (approximately 14%) negative contribution. Of RNAs non-responsive to endothelin-1, 66 or 448 were regulated by PD184352 or C3T, respectively, indicating that RhoA had a more significant effect on baseline RNA expression. mRNAs upregulated by endothelin-1 encoded a number of receptor ligands (e.g. Ereg, Areg, Hbegf) and transcription factors (e.g. Abra/Srf) that potentially propagate the response.ERK1/2 dominates over RhoA in the early transcriptomic response to endothelin-1. RhoA plays a major role in maintaining baseline RNA expression but, with upregulation of Abra/Srf by endothelin-1, RhoA may regulate changes in RNA expression over longer times. Our data identify ERK1/2 as a more significant node than RhoA in regulating the early stages of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy

BPS black holes in N=2 D=4 gauged supergravities

We construct and analyze BPS black hole solutions in gauged N=2, D=4 supergravity with charged hypermultiplets. A class of solutions can be found through spontaneous symmetry breaking in vacua that preserve maximal supersymmetry. The resulting black holes do not carry any hair for the scalars. We demonstrate this with explicit examples of both asymptotically flat and anti-de Sitter black holes. Next, we analyze the BPS conditions for asymptotically flat black holes with scalar hair and spherical or axial symmetry. We find solutions only in cases when the metric contains ripples and the vector multiplet scalars become ghost-like. We give explicit examples that can be analyzed numerically. Finally, we comment on a way to circumvent the ghost-problem by introducing also fermionic hair.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures; v2 references added; v3 minor changes, published versio

Evolution of opinions on social networks in the presence of competing committed groups

Public opinion is often affected by the presence of committed groups of individuals dedicated to competing points of view. Using a model of pairwise social influence, we study how the presence of such groups within social networks affects the outcome and the speed of evolution of the overall opinion on the network. Earlier work indicated that a single committed group within a dense social network can cause the entire network to quickly adopt the group's opinion (in times scaling logarithmically with the network size), so long as the committed group constitutes more than about 10% of the population (with the findings being qualitatively similar for sparse networks as well). Here we study the more general case of opinion evolution when two groups committed to distinct, competing opinions $A$ and $B$, and constituting fractions $p_A$ and $p_B$ of the total population respectively, are present in the network. We show for stylized social networks (including Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs and Barab\'asi-Albert scale-free networks) that the phase diagram of this system in parameter space $(p_A,p_B)$ consists of two regions, one where two stable steady-states coexist, and the remaining where only a single stable steady-state exists. These two regions are separated by two fold-bifurcation (spinodal) lines which meet tangentially and terminate at a cusp (critical point). We provide further insights to the phase diagram and to the nature of the underlying phase transitions by investigating the model on infinite (mean-field limit), finite complete graphs and finite sparse networks. For the latter case, we also derive the scaling exponent associated with the exponential growth of switching times as a function of the distance from the critical point.Comment: 23 pages: 15 pages + 7 figures (main text), 8 pages + 1 figure + 1 table (supplementary info