Fault Trees from Data: Efficient Learning with an Evolutionary Algorithm

Cyber-physical systems come with increasingly complex architectures and failure modes, which complicates the task of obtaining accurate system reliability models. At the same time, with the emergence of the (industrial) Internet-of-Things, systems are more and more often being monitored via advanced sensor systems. These sensors produce large amounts of data about the components' failure behaviour, and can, therefore, be fruitfully exploited to learn reliability models automatically. This paper presents an effective algorithm for learning a prominent class of reliability models, namely fault trees, from observational data. Our algorithm is evolutionary in nature; i.e., is an iterative, population-based, randomized search method among fault-tree structures that are increasingly more consistent with the observational data. We have evaluated our method on a large number of case studies, both on synthetic data, and industrial data. Our experiments show that our algorithm outperforms other methods and provides near-optimal results.Comment: This paper is an extended version of the SETTA 2019 paper, Springer-Verla

Phase I study of dose-escalated paclitaxel, ifosfamide, and cisplatin (PIC) combination chemotherapy in advanced solid tumours

Based on the already known in vitro synergy between paclitaxel (taxol), cisplatin and oxazophosphorine cytostatics and the broad spectrum of activity of the above drugs we sought to evaluate the paclitaxel (taxol)-ifosfamide-cisplatin (PIC) combination in the outpatient setting in individuals with a variety of advanced solid tumours. Cohorts of patients were entered into six successive dose levels (DLs) with drug doses ranging as follows: paclitaxel 135–215 mg m−2day 1 – (1 h infusion), ifosfamide 4.5–6.0 g m−2(total dose) – divided over days 1 and 2, and cisplatin 80–100 mg m−2(total) – divided over days 1 and 2. Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor was given from day 5 to 14. Forty-two patients were entered. Eighteen patients had 2–8 cycles of prior chemotherapy with no taxanes or ifosfamide (cisplatin was allowed). The regimen was tolerated with outpatient administration in 36/42 patients. Toxicities included: grade 4 neutropenia for ≤ 5 days in 27% of cycles; 5 episodes of febrile neutropenia in three patients at DL-III, -V and -VI. Grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia and cumulative grade 3 anaemia were seen in 7% and 13% of cycles respectively. Three cases of severe grade 3 neuromotor/sensory neuropathy were recorded at DL-II, -III, and -V, all after cycle 3. The maximum tolerated dose was not formally reached at DL-V, but because of progressive anaemia and asthenia/fatigue, it was decided to test a new DL-VI with doses of paclitaxel 200 mg m−2, ifosfamide 5.0 g m−2and cisplatin 100 mg m−2; this appeared to be tolerable and is recommended for further phase II testing. The response rate was 47.5% (complete response + partial response: 20/42). The PIC regimen appears to be feasible and safe in the outpatient setting. Care should be paid to neurotoxicity. Phase II studies are starting in non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer and head and neck cancer at DL-VI. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

Useful pharmacodynamic endpoints in children: selection, measurement, and next steps.

Pharmacodynamic (PD) endpoints are essential for establishing the benefit-to-risk ratio for therapeutic interventions in children and neonates. This article discusses the selection of an appropriate measure of response, the PD endpoint, which is a critical methodological step in designing pediatric efficacy and safety studies. We provide an overview of existing guidance on the choice of PD endpoints in pediatric clinical research. We identified several considerations relevant to the selection and measurement of PD endpoints in pediatric clinical trials, including the use of biomarkers, modeling, compliance, scoring systems, and validated measurement tools. To be useful, PD endpoints in children need to be clinically relevant, responsive to both treatment and/or disease progression, reproducible, and reliable. In most pediatric disease areas, this requires significant validation efforts. We propose a minimal set of criteria for useful PD endpoint selection and measurement. We conclude that, given the current heterogeneity of pediatric PD endpoint definitions and measurements, both across and within defined disease areas, there is an acute need for internationally agreed, validated, and condition-specific pediatric PD endpoints that consider the needs of all stakeholders, including healthcare providers, policy makers, patients, and families.Pediatric Research advance online publication, 11 April 2018; doi:10.1038/pr.2018.38

Diversity and abundance of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in an urban centre: a case study from Northampton (England)

The apparent reduction of solitary and primitively eusocial bees populations has remained a huge concern over the past few decades and urbanisation is considered as one of the factors affecting bees at different scales depending on bee guild. As urbanisation is increasing globally it necessitates more research to understand the complex community dynamics of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in urban settings. We investigated the urban core of a British town for diversity and abundance of solitary bees using standardized methods, and compared the results with nearby meadows and nature reserves. The study recorded 48 species within the town, about 22 % of the total species and 58 % of the genera of solitary bees in the United Kingdom. Furthermore we found the urban core to be more diverse and abundant in solitary and primitively eusocial bees compared to the meadows and nature re-serves. Of particular note was an urban record of the nationally rare Red Data Book species Coelioxys quadridentata and its host Anthophora quadrimaculata. This research demonstrates that urban settings can contribute significantly to the conservation of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in Britain

Memory in Microbes: Quantifying History-Dependent Behavior in a Bacterium

Memory is usually associated with higher organisms rather than bacteria. However, evidence is mounting that many regulatory networks within bacteria are capable of complex dynamics and multi-stable behaviors that have been linked to memory in other systems. Moreover, it is recognized that bacteria that have experienced different environmental histories may respond differently to current conditions. These “memory” effects may be more than incidental to the regulatory mechanisms controlling acclimation or to the status of the metabolic stores. Rather, they may be regulated by the cell and confer fitness to the organism in the evolutionary game it participates in. Here, we propose that history-dependent behavior is a potentially important manifestation of memory, worth classifying and quantifying. To this end, we develop an information-theory based conceptual framework for measuring both the persistence of memory in microbes and the amount of information about the past encoded in history-dependent dynamics. This method produces a phenomenological measure of cellular memory without regard to the specific cellular mechanisms encoding it. We then apply this framework to a strain of Bacillus subtilis engineered to report on commitment to sporulation and degradative enzyme (AprE) synthesis and estimate the capacity of these systems and growth dynamics to ‘remember’ 10 distinct cell histories prior to application of a common stressor. The analysis suggests that B. subtilis remembers, both in short and long term, aspects of its cell history, and that this memory is distributed differently among the observables. While this study does not examine the mechanistic bases for memory, it presents a framework for quantifying memory in cellular behaviors and is thus a starting point for studying new questions about cellular regulation and evolutionary strategy

Exploring the predation of UK bumblebees (Apidae, Bombus spp.) by the invasive pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea: examining the effects of annual variation, seasonal variation, plant density and bumblebee gender

Invasive carnivorous plant species can impact the native invertebrate communities on which they prey. This article explores the predation of native UK bumblebees (Bombus spp.) by the invasive pitcher plant species Sarracenia purpurea and discusses the potential effect of S. purpurea on native bumblebees. Specifically, it evaluates whether the extent to which bumblebees are captured varies (i) over successive years, (ii) across June and July, (iii) with density of distribution of pitchers or (iv) with bumblebee gender. Pitcher contents were examined from an established population of Sarracenia purpurea growing in Dorset, UK. Results show that the total extent to which bumblebees were captured differed over the years 2012–2014 inclusive. A 1-year study in 2013 showed that more bumblebees were caught in July than in June and more bumblebees were captured when pitchers grew at high density. Results from 2013 also showed that more pitchers caught more than one bumblebee than would be expected based on a normal probability distribution and that this phenomenon affects female and male bumblebees equally. We discuss possible reasons for these results including that the bumblebees may be using S. purpurea as a resource. Further work is required to establish the exact underpinning mechanisms and the relative roles of plant and bumblebee behaviour within the relationship. Such interaction complexity may have consequences for consideration in invasive carnivorous plant management

Substitution of adeno-associated virus Rep protein binding and nicking sites with human Chromosome 19 sequences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Adeno-associated virus type 2 (AAV2) preferentially integrates its DNA at a ~2 kb region of human chromosome 19, designated <it>AAVS1 </it>(also known as <it>MBS85</it>). Integration at <it>AAVS1 </it>requires the AAV2 replication (Rep) proteins and a DNA sequence within <it>AAVS1 </it>containing a 16 bp Rep recognition sequence (RRS) and closely spaced Rep nicking site (also referred to as a terminal resolution site, or <it>trs</it>). The AAV2 genome is flanked by inverted terminal repeats (ITRs). Each ITR contains an RRS and closely spaced <it>trs</it>, but the sequences differ from those in <it>AAVS1</it>. These ITR sequences are required for replication and packaging.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study we demonstrate that the <it>AAVS1 </it>RRS and <it>trs </it>can function in AAV2 replication, packaging and integration by replacing a 61 bp region of the AAV2 ITR with a 49 bp segment of <it>AAVS1 </it>DNA. Modifying one or both ITRs did not have a large effect on the overall virus titers. These modifications did not detectably affect integration at <it>AAVS1</it>, as measured by semi-quantitative nested PCR assays. Sequencing of integration junctions shows the joining of the modified ITRs to <it>AAVS1 </it>sequences.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The ability of these <it>AAVS1 </it>sequences to substitute for the AAV2 RRS and <it>trs </it>provides indirect evidence that the stable secondary structure encompassing the <it>trs </it>is part of the AAV2 packaging signal.</p

The role of population PK-PD modelling in paediatric clinical research

Children differ from adults in their response to drugs. While this may be the result of changes in dose exposure (pharmacokinetics [PK]) and/or exposure response (pharmacodynamics [PD]) relationships, the magnitude of these changes may not be solely reflected by differences in body weight. As a consequence, dosing recommendations empirically derived from adults dosing regimens using linear extrapolations based on body weight, can result in therapeutic failure, occurrence of adverse effect or even fatalities. In order to define rational, patient-tailored dosing schemes, population PK-PD studies in children are needed. For the analysis of the data, population modelling using non-linear mixed effect modelling is the preferred tool since this approach allows for the analysis of sparse and unbalanced datasets. Additionally, it permits the exploration of the influence of different covariates such as body weight and age to explain the variability in drug response. Finally, using this approach, these PK-PD studies can be designed in the most efficient manner in order to obtain the maximum information on the PK-PD parameters with the highest precision. Once a population PK-PD model is developed, internal and external validations should be performed. If the model performs well in these validation procedures, model simulations can be used to define a dosing regimen, which in turn needs to be tested and challenged in a prospective clinical trial. This methodology will improve the efficacy/safety balance of dosing guidelines, which will be of benefit to the individual child