Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Association of treatment satisfaction and psychopathological sub-syndromes among involuntary patients with psychotic disorders

Publisher's version: http://www.springerlink.com/content/rx24036274667t10

Impact of Dreissena fouling on the physiological condition of native and invasive bivalves : interspecific and temporal variations

The impact of Dreissena fouling on unionids has hardly been studied in Europe, despite the fact that in some ecosystems (e.g. Lake Balaton, Hungary) infestations of several hundreds to a thousand individuals per unionid have been observed. At present, the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha is a dominant species in Lake Balaton and in the last decade three other invasive bivalves were introduced, potentially increasing the pressure on native unionid survival. We examined whether the fouling of dreissenids (zebra and quagga (D. rostriformis bugensis) mussels) has a negative impact on native (Anodonta anatina, Unio pictorum and U. tumidus) and invasive (Corbicula fluminea and Sinanodonta woodiana) bivalves and whether there are any interspecific and temporal variations in fouling intensity and physiological condition measured by standard condition index and glycogen content. A significant negative impact was detected on native unionids only in July and September (no impact was detected in May), when the fouling rate was high. For invasive species, a significant negative impact was detected on S. woodiana with a high level of dressenid infestation; whereas no significant impact was detected on C. fluminea. Overall, this study confirms that Dreissena may threaten unionid species including the invasive S. woodiana, although high interspecific and temporal variations were observed. This situation should be taken into account in future ecological and conservational assessments because species respond differently to Dreissena fouling and effects seem to be more pronounced in late summer/early autumn. In addition, this study provides the first evidence that the invasive C. fluminea appear to be less vulnerable to dressenid fouling.The study was supported by the Hungarian Scientific Fund (KTIA-OTKA) under the contract No. CNK80140

Estimating stable isotope turnover rates of epidermal mucus and dorsal muscle for an omnivorous fish using a diet-switch experiment

© 2018, The Author(s). Stable isotope (SI) analysis studies rely on knowledge of isotopic turnover rates and trophic-step discrimination factors. Epidermal mucus (‘mucus’) potentially provides an alternative SI ‘tissue’ to dorsal muscle that can be collected non-invasively and non-destructively. Here, a diet-switch experiment using the omnivorous fish Cyprinus carpio and plant- and fish-based formulated feeds compared SI data between mucus and muscle, including their isotopic discrimination factors and turnover rates (as functions of time T and mass G, at isotopic half-life (50) and equilibrium (95)). Mucus isotope data differed significantly and predictively from muscle data. The fastest δ13C turnover rate was for mucus in fish on the plant-based diet (T50: 17 days, T95: 74 days; G50: 1.08(BM), G95: 1.40(BM)). Muscle turnover rates were longer for the same fish (T50: 44 days, T95: 190 days; G50: 1.13(BM), G95: 1.68(BM)). Longer half-lives resulted in both tissues from the fish-based diet. δ13C discrimination factors varied by diet and tissue (plant-based: 3.11–3.28‰; fishmeal: 1.28–2.13‰). Mucus SI data did not differ between live and frozen fish. These results suggest that mucus SI half-lives provide comparable data to muscle, and can be used as a non-destructive alternative tissue in fish-based SI studies

Screen-detected vs symptomatic breast cancer: is improved survival due to stage migration alone?

This paper examines whether screen-detected breast cancer confers additional prognostic benefit to the patient, over and above that expected by any shift in stage at presentation. In all, 5604 women (aged 50–70 years) diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1998 and 2003 were identified by the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) and mammographic screening status was determined. Using proportional hazards regression, we estimated the effect of screen detection compared with symptomatic diagnosis on 5-year survival unadjusted, then adjusted for age and Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). A total of 72% of the survival benefit associated with screen-detected breast cancer can be accounted for by age and shift in NPI. Survival analysis by continuous NPI showed a small but systematic survival benefit for screen-detected cancers at each NPI value. These data show that although most of the screen-detected survival advantage is due to a shift in NPI, the mode of detection does impact on survival in patients with equivalent NPI scores. This residual survival benefit is small but significant, and is likely to be due to differences in tumour biology. Current prognostication tools may, therefore, overestimate the benefit of systemic treatments in screen-detected cancers and lead to overtreatment of these patients

Genomic-Bioinformatic Analysis of Transcripts Enriched in the Third-Stage Larva of the Parasitic Nematode Ascaris suum

Differential transcription in Ascaris suum was investigated using a genomic-bioinformatic approach. A cDNA archive enriched for molecules in the infective third-stage larva (L3) of A. suum was constructed by suppressive-subtractive hybridization (SSH), and a subset of cDNAs from 3075 clones subjected to microarray analysis using cDNA probes derived from RNA from different developmental stages of A. suum. The cDNAs (n = 498) shown by microarray analysis to be enriched in the L3 were sequenced and subjected to bioinformatic analyses using a semi-automated pipeline (ESTExplorer). Using gene ontology (GO), 235 of these molecules were assigned to ‘biological process’ (n = 68), ‘cellular component’ (n = 50), or ‘molecular function’ (n = 117). Of the 91 clusters assembled, 56 molecules (61.5%) had homologues/orthologues in the free-living nematodes Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae and/or other organisms, whereas 35 (38.5%) had no significant similarity to any sequences available in current gene databases. Transcripts encoding protein kinases, protein phosphatases (and their precursors), and enolases were abundantly represented in the L3 of A. suum, as were molecules involved in cellular processes, such as ubiquitination and proteasome function, gene transcription, protein–protein interactions, and function. In silico analyses inferred the C. elegans orthologues/homologues (n = 50) to be involved in apoptosis and insulin signaling (2%), ATP synthesis (2%), carbon metabolism (6%), fatty acid biosynthesis (2%), gap junction (2%), glucose metabolism (6%), or porphyrin metabolism (2%), although 34 (68%) of them could not be mapped to a specific metabolic pathway. Small numbers of these 50 molecules were predicted to be secreted (10%), anchored (2%), and/or transmembrane (12%) proteins. Functionally, 17 (34%) of them were predicted to be associated with (non-wild-type) RNAi phenotypes in C. elegans, the majority being embryonic lethality (Emb) (13 types; 58.8%), larval arrest (Lva) (23.5%) and larval lethality (Lvl) (47%). A genetic interaction network was predicted for these 17 C. elegans orthologues, revealing highly significant interactions for nine molecules associated with embryonic and larval development (66.9%), information storage and processing (5.1%), cellular processing and signaling (15.2%), metabolism (6.1%), and unknown function (6.7%). The potential roles of these molecules in development are discussed in relation to the known roles of their homologues/orthologues in C. elegans and some other nematodes. The results of the present study provide a basis for future functional genomic studies to elucidate molecular aspects governing larval developmental processes in A. suum and/or the transition to parasitism

Glutamate-Gated Chloride Channels of Haemonchus contortus Restore Drug Sensitivity to Ivermectin Resistant Caenorhabditis elegans

Anthelmintic resistance is a major problem in livestock farming, especially of small ruminants, but our understanding of it has been limited by the difficulty in carrying out functional genetic studies on parasitic nematodes. An important nematode infecting sheep and goats is Haemonchus contortus; in many parts of the world this species is resistant to almost all the currently available drugs, including ivermectin. It is extremely polymorphic and to date it has proved impossible to relate any sequence polymorphisms to its ivermectin resistance status. Expression of candidate drug-resistance genes in Caenorhabditis elegans could provide a convenient means to study the effects of polymorphisms found in resistant parasites, but may be complicated by differences between the gene families of target and model organisms. We tested this using the glutamate-gated chloride channel (GluCl) gene family, which forms the ivermectin drug target and are candidate resistance genes. We expressed GluCl subunits from C. elegans and H. contortus in a highly resistant triple mutant C. elegans strain (DA1316) under the control of the avr-14 promoter; expression of GFP behind this promoter recapitulated the pattern previously reported for avr-14. Expression of ivermectin-sensitive subunits from both species restored drug sensitivity to transgenic worms, though some quantitative differences were noted between lines. Expression of an ivermectin-insensitive subunit, Hco-GLC-2, had no effect on drug sensitivity. Expression of a previously uncharacterised parasite-specific subunit, Hco-GLC-6, caused the transgenic worms to become ivermectin sensitive, suggesting that this subunit also encodes a GluCl that responds to the drug. These results demonstrate that both orthologous and paralogous subunits from C. elegans and H. contortus are able to rescue the ivermectin sensitivity of mutant C. elegans, though some quantitative differences were observed between transgenic lines in some assays. C. elegans is a suitable system for studying parasitic nematode genes that may be involved in drug resistance

Using a genetically informative design to examine the relationship between breastfeeding and childhood conduct problems

A number of public health interventions aimed at increasing the uptake of breastfeeding are in place in the United States and other Western countries. While the physical health and nutritional benefits of breastfeeding for the mother and child are relatively well established, the evidence for psychological effects is less clear. This study aimed to examine whether there is an association between breastfeeding and later conduct problems in children. It also considered the extent to which any relationship is attributable to maternally-provided inherited characteristics that influence both likelihood of breastfeeding and child conduct problems. A prenatal cross-fostering design with a sample of 870 families with a child aged 4–11 years was used. Mothers were genetically related or unrelated to their child as a result of assisted reproductive technologies. The relationship between breastfeeding and conduct problems was assessed while controlling for theorised measured confounders by multivariate regression (e.g. maternal smoking, education, and antisocial behaviour), and for unmeasured inherited factors by testing associations separately for related and unrelated mother-child pairs. Breastfeeding was associated with lower levels of conduct disorder symptoms in offspring in middle childhood. Breastfeeding was associated with lower levels of conduct problems even after controlling for observed confounders in the genetically related group, but not in the genetically unrelated group. In contrast, maternal antisocial behaviour showed robust associations with child conduct problems after controlling for measured and inherited confounders. These findings highlight the importance of using genetically sensitive designs in order to test causal environmental influences