Delay-adjusted age- and sex-specific case fatality rates for COVID-19 in South Korea: Evolution in the estimated risk of mortality throughout the epidemic

Objectives: The aim of this study was to estimate delay-adjusted case fatality rates (CFRs) for COVID-19 in South Korea, and evaluate how these estimates have evolved over time throughout the epidemic. Methods: Public data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) were used to estimate age- and sex-specific CFRs for COVID-19 in South Korea up to June 12, 2020. We applied statistical methods previously developed to adjust for the delay between diagnosis and death, and presented both delay-adjusted and crude (unadjusted) CFRs throughout the epidemic. Results: The overall estimated delay-adjusted CFR was 2.39% (3.05% for males and 1.92% for females). Within each age strata where deaths were reported, males were found to have significantly higher CFRs than females. The estimated CFRs increased substantially from age 60 years in males and from 70 years in females. Both the delay-adjusted and crude CFRs were found to have evolved substantially, particularly early in the epidemic, converging only from mid-April 2020. Conclusions: The CFRs for South Korea provide an estimate of mortality risk in a setting where case ascertainment is likely to be more complete. The evolution in CFRs throughout the epidemic highlights the need for caution when interpreting CFRs calculated at a given time point

Cost-Effective Strategies for Mitigating a Future Influenza Pandemic with H1N1 2009 Characteristics

Background: We performed an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic intervention strategies using a detailed, individual-based simulation model of a community in Australia together with health outcome data of infected individuals gathered during 2009–2010. The aim was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions to determine the most cost-effective strategies suitable for a future pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using transmissibility, age-stratified attack rates and health outcomes determined from H1N1 2009 data, we determined that the most cost-effective strategies involved treatment and household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs combined with limited duration school closure, with costs ranging from $632 to$777 per case prevented. When school closure was used as a sole intervention we found the use of limited duration school closure to be significantly more cost-effective compared to continuous school closure, a result with applicability to countries with limited access to antiviral drugs. Other social distancing strategies, such as reduced workplace attendance, were found to be costly due to productivity losses. Conclusion: The mild severity (low hospitalisation and case fatality rates) and low transmissibility of H1N1 2009 meant that health treatment costs were dominated by the higher productivity losses arising from workplace absence due to illness and childcare requirements following school closure. Further analysis for higher transmissibility but with the same, mild severit

Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts

Background. Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures. Methods. We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks. Results. The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia. Conclusions. The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks

Betting is loving and bettors are predators: a conceptual metaphor approach to online sports betting advertising

The legalisation of online gambling in multiple territories has caused a growth in the exposure of consumers to online sports betting (OSB) advertising. While some efforts have been made to understand the visible structure of betting promotional messages, little is known about the latent components of OSB advertisements. The present study sought to address this issue by examining the metaphorical conceptualisation of OSB advertising. A sample of Spanish and British television OSB advertisements from 2014 to 2016 was analysed (N = 133). Following Lakoff and Johnson’s conceptual metaphor theory, four main structural metaphors that shaped how OSB advertising can be understood were identified: betting as (1) an act of love, (2) a market, (3) a sport, and (4) a natural environment. In general, these metaphors, which were found widely across 29 different betting brands, facilitated the perception of bettors as active players, with an executive role in the sport events bet upon, and greater control over bet outcomes

Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Preparedness Strategies and Interventions against Influenza Pandemics

BACKGROUND: Although public health guidelines have implications for resource allocation, these issues were not explicitly considered in previous WHO pandemic preparedness and response guidance. In order to ensure a thorough and informed revision of this guidance following the H1N1 2009 pandemic, a systematic review of published and unpublished economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics was conducted. METHODS: The search was performed in September 2011 using 10 electronic databases, 2 internet search engines, reference list screening, cited reference searching, and direct communication with relevant authors. Full and partial economic evaluations considering both costs and outcomes were included. Conversely, reviews, editorials, and studies on economic impact or complications were excluded. Studies were selected by 2 independent reviewers. RESULTS: 44 studies were included. Although most complied with the cost effectiveness guidelines, the quality of evidence was limited. However, the data sources used were of higher quality in economic evaluations conducted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Vaccination and drug regimens were varied. Pharmaceutical plus non-pharmaceutical interventions are relatively cost effective in comparison to vaccines and/or antivirals alone. Pharmaceutical interventions vary from cost saving to high cost effectiveness ratios. According to ceiling thresholds (Gross National Income per capita), the reduction of non-essential contacts and the use of pharmaceutical prophylaxis plus the closure of schools are amongst the cost effective strategies for all countries. However, quarantine for household contacts is not cost effective even for low and middle income countries. CONCLUSION: The available evidence is generally inconclusive regarding the cost effectiveness of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics. Studies on their effectiveness and cost effectiveness should be readily implemented in forthcoming events that also involve the developing world. Guidelines for assessing the impact of disease and interventions should be drawn up to facilitate these studies

Influenza-associated mortality in South Africa, 2009-2013: The importance of choices related to influenza infection proxies

Background: Regression modeling methods are commonly used to estimate influenza-associated mortality using covariates such as laboratory-confirmed influenza activity in the population as a proxy of influenza incidence. Objective: We examined the choices of influenza proxies that can be used from influenza laboratory surveillance data and their impact on influenza-associated mortality estimates. Method: Semiparametric generalized additive models with a smoothing spline were applied on national mortality data from South Africa and influenza surveillance data as covariates to obtain influenza-associated mortality estimates from respiratory causes from 2009 to 2013. Proxies examined included alternative ways of expressing influenza laboratory surveillance data such as weekly or yearly proportion or rate of positive samples, using influenza subtypes, or total influenza data and expressing the data as influenza season-specific or across all seasons. Result: Based on model fit, weekly proportion and influenza subtype-specific proxy formulation provided the best fit. The choice of proxies used gave large differences to mortality estimates, but the 95% confidence interval of these estimates overlaps. Conclusion: Regardless of proxy chosen, mortality estimates produced may be broadly consistent and not statistically significant for public health practice

The potential cost-effectiveness of infant pneumococcal vaccines in Australia

Over the last decade infant pneumococcal vaccination has been adopted as part of routine immunisation schedules in many developed countries. Although highly successful in many settings such as Australia and the United States, rapid serotype replacement has occurred in some European countries. Recently two pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) with extended serotype coverage have been licensed for use, a 10-valent (PHiD-CV) and a 13-valent (PCV-13) vaccine, and offer potential replacements for the existing vaccine (PCV-7) in Australia. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PCV programs we developed a static, deterministic state-transition model. The perspective for costs included those to the government and healthcare system. When compared to current practice (PCV-7) both vaccines offered potential benefits, with those estimated for PHiD-CV due primarily to prevention of otitis media and PCV-13 due to a further reduction in invasive disease in Australia. At equivalent total cost to vaccinate an infant, compared to no PCV the base-case cost per QALY saved were estimated at A$64,900 (current practice, PCV-7; 3 + 0), A$50,200 (PHiD-CV; 3 + 1) and A$55,300 (PCV-13; 3 + 0), respectively. However, assumptions regarding herd protection, serotype protection, otitis media efficacy, and vaccination cost changed the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative PCV programs. The high proportion of current invasive disease caused by serotype 19A (as included in PCV-13) may be a decisive factor in determining vaccine policy in Australia