Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program

Australia's Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change

Current and projected rainfall reduction in southeast Australia has seen the installation of large numbers of government-subsidised and ad hoc domestic water storage containers that could create the possibility of the mosquito Ae. aegypti expanding out of Queensland into southern Australian's urban regions. By assessing the past and current distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we construct distributional models for this dengue vector for our current climate and projected climates for 2030 and 2050. The resulting mosquito distribution maps are compared to published theoretical temperature limits for Ae. aegypti and some differences are identified. Nonetheless, synthesising our mosquito distribution maps with dengue transmission climate limits derived from historical dengue epidemics in Australia suggests that the current proliferation of domestic water storage tanks could easily result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti along with the associated dengue risk were the virus to be introduced

Predictors of delayed culture conversion among Ugandan patients.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of month-2 culture conversion, a proxy indicator of tuberculosis (TB) treatment efficacy in phase-2 trials can vary by culture-type and geographically with lower rates reported among African sites. The sub-study aimed at comparing TB detection rates of different culture media, within and across rifampicin-based regimens (R10, 15 and 20 mg/Kg) over a 6-month treatment follow-up period, and to establish predictors of month-2 culture non-conversion among HIV-negative TB patients enrolled at RIFATOX trial site in Uganda. METHODS: Unlike in other Rifatox Trial sites, it is only in Uganda were Lowenstein-Jensen (LJ) and Mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) were used throughout 6-months for treatment monitoring. Conversion rates were compared at month-2, 4 and 6 across cultures and treatment-type. Binomial regression analysis performed for predictors of month-2 non-conversion. RESULTS: Of the 100 enrolled patients, 45% had converted based on combined LJ and MGIT by month-2, with no significant differences across treatment arms, p = 0.721. LJ exhibited higher conversion rates than MGIT at month-2 (58.4% vs 56.0%, p = 0.0707) and month-4 (98.9% vs 88.4%, p = 0.0391) respectively, more so within the high-dose rifampicin arms. All patients had converted by month-6. Time-to-TB detection (TTD) on MGIT and social service jobs independently predict month-2 non-conversion. CONCLUSION: The month-2 culture conversion used in phase 2 clinical trials as surrogate marker of treatment efficacy is influenced by the culture method used for monitoring mycobacterial response to TB treatment. Therefore, multi-centric TB therapeutic trials using early efficacy endpoint should use the same culture method across sites. The Time-to-detection of MTB on MGIT prior to treatment and working in Social service jobs bear an increased risk of culture non-conversion at month-2. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN55670677 . Registered 09th November 2010. Retrospectively registered

Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and approximately 2.5 billion people live in dengue endemic countries. In Brazil it is mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from asymptomatic infections or mild illness, to the more severe forms of infection such as dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome. The spread and dramatic increase in the occurrence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries has been blamed on uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and international traveling. Vaccines are under development and the only current disease control strategy is trying to keep the vector quantity at the lowest possible levels. Mathematical models have been developed to help understand the disease's epidemiology. These models aim not only to predict epidemics but also to expand the capacity of phenomena explanation. We developed a spatially explicit model to simulate the dengue transmission in a densely populated area. The model involves the dynamic interactions between humans and mosquitoes and takes into account human mobility as an important factor of disease spread. We investigated the importance of human population size, human renewal rate, household infestation and ratio of vectors per person in the maintenance of sustained viral circulation

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue is a major public health problem in many tropical regions of the world, including Brazil, where Aedes aegypti is the main vector. We present a household study that combines data on dengue fever seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density, in three neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during its most devastating dengue epidemic to date. This integrated entomological–serological survey showed evidence of silent transmission even during a severe epidemic. Also, past exposure to dengue virus was highly associated with age and living in areas of high movement of individuals and social/commercial activity. No association was observed between household infestation index and risk of dengue infection in these areas. Our findings are discussed in the light of current theories regarding transmission thresholds and relative role of mosquitoes and humans as vectors of dengue viruses