Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

Discretization Provides a Conceptually Simple Tool to Build Expression Networks

Biomarker identification, using network methods, depends on finding regular co-expression patterns; the overall connectivity is of greater importance than any single relationship. A second requirement is a simple algorithm for ranking patients on how relevant a gene-set is. For both of these requirements discretized data helps to first identify gene cliques, and then to stratify patients

Aldo Keto Reductase 1B7 and Prostaglandin F2α Are Regulators of Adrenal Endocrine Functions

Prostaglandin F2α (PGF2α), represses ovarian steroidogenesis and initiates parturition in mammals but its impact on adrenal gland is unknown. Prostaglandins biosynthesis depends on the sequential action of upstream cyclooxygenases (COX) and terminal synthases but no PGF2α synthases (PGFS) were functionally identified in mammalian cells. In vitro, the most efficient mammalian PGFS belong to aldo-keto reductase 1B (AKR1B) family. The adrenal gland is a major site of AKR1B expression in both human (AKR1B1) and mouse (AKR1B3, AKR1B7). Thus, we examined the PGF2α biosynthetic pathway and its functional impact on both cortical and medullary zones. Both compartments produced PGF2α but expressed different biosynthetic isozymes. In chromaffin cells, PGF2α secretion appeared constitutive and correlated to continuous expression of COX1 and AKR1B3. In steroidogenic cells, PGF2α secretion was stimulated by adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and correlated to ACTH-responsiveness of both COX2 and AKR1B7/B1. The pivotal role of AKR1B7 in ACTH-induced PGF2α release and functional coupling with COX2 was demonstrated using over- and down-expression in cell lines. PGF2α receptor was only detected in chromaffin cells, making medulla the primary target of PGF2α action. By comparing PGF2α-responsiveness of isolated cells and whole adrenal cultures, we demonstrated that PGF2α repressed glucocorticoid secretion by an indirect mechanism involving a decrease in catecholamine release which in turn decreased adrenal steroidogenesis. PGF2α may be regarded as a negative autocrine/paracrine regulator within a novel intra-adrenal feedback loop. The coordinated cell-specific regulation of COX2 and AKR1B7 ensures the generation of this stress-induced corticostatic signal

Forecasting with Big Data: A Review

Big Data is a revolutionary phenomenon which is one of the most frequently discussed topics in the modern age, and is expected to remain so in the foreseeable future. In this paper we present a comprehensive review on the use of Big Data for forecasting by identifying and reviewing the problems, potential, challenges and most importantly the related applications. Skills, hardware and software, algorithm architecture, statistical significance, the signal to noise ratio and the nature of Big Data itself are identified as the major challenges which are hindering the process of obtaining meaningful forecasts from Big Data. The review finds that at present, the fields of Economics, Energy and Population Dynamics have been the major exploiters of Big Data forecasting whilst Factor models, Bayesian models and Neural Networks are the most common tools adopted for forecasting with Big Data

Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

Background: The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings: Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools

Environmental sensing and response genes in cnidaria : the chemical defensome in the sea anemone Nematostella vectensis

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Cell Biology and Toxicology 24 (2008): 483-502, doi:10.1007/s10565-008-9107-5.The starlet sea anemone Nematostella vectensis has been recently established as a new model system for the study of the evolution of developmental processes, as cnidaria occupy a key evolutionary position at the base of the bilateria. Cnidaria play important roles in estuarine and reef communities, but are exposed to many environmental stressors. Here I describe the genetic components of a ‘chemical defensome’ in the genome of N. vectensis, and review cnidarian molecular toxicology. Gene families that defend against chemical stressors and the transcription factors that regulate these genes have been termed a ‘chemical defensome,’ and include the cytochromes P450 and other oxidases, various conjugating enyzymes, the ATP-dependent efflux transporters, oxidative detoxification proteins, as well as various transcription factors. These genes account for about 1% (266/27200) of the predicted genes in the sea anemone genome, similar to the proportion observed in tunicates and humans, but lower than that observed in sea urchins. While there are comparable numbers of stress-response genes, the stress sensor genes appear to be reduced in N. vectensis relative to many model protostomes and deuterostomes. Cnidarian toxicology is understudied, especially given the important ecological roles of many cnidarian species. New genomic resources should stimulate the study of chemical stress sensing and response mechanisms in cnidaria, and allow us to further illuminate the evolution of chemical defense gene networks.WHOI Ocean Life Institute and NIH R01-ES01591

A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of repeated nebulisation of non-viral cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene therapy in patients with cystic fibrosis

Background: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a chronic, life-limiting disease caused by mutations in the CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene leading to abnormal airway surface ion transport, chronic lung infections, inflammation and eventual respiratory failure. With the exception of the small-molecule potentiator, ivacaftor (Kalydeco®, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Boston, MA, USA), which is suitable for a small proportion of patients, there are no licensed therapies targeting the basic defect. The UK Cystic Fibrosis Gene Therapy Consortium has taken a cationic lipid-mediated CFTR gene therapy formulation through preclinical and clinical development. Objective: To determine clinical efficacy of the formulation delivered to the airways over a period of 1 year in patients with CF. Design: This was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase IIb trial of the CFTR gene–liposome complex pGM169/GL67A. Randomisation was performed via InForm™ version 4.6 (Phase Forward Incorporated, Oracle, CA, USA) and was 1 : 1, except for patients in the mechanistic subgroups (2 : 1). Allocation was blinded by masking nebuliser chambers. Settings: Data were collected in the clinical and scientific sites and entered onto a trial-specific InForm, version 4.6 database. Participants: Patients with CF aged ≥ 12 years with forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) between 50% and 90% predicted and any combination of CFTR mutations. The per-protocol group (≥ 9 doses) consisted of 54 patients receiving placebo (62 randomised) and 62 patients receiving gene therapy (78 randomised). Interventions: Subjects received 5 ml of nebulised pGM169/G67A (active) or 0.9% saline (placebo) at 28 (±5)-day intervals over 1 year. Main outcome measures: The primary end point was the relative change in percentage predicted FEV1 over the 12-month period. A number of secondary clinical outcomes were assessed alongside safety measures: other spirometric values; lung clearance index (LCI) assessed by multibreath washout; structural disease on computed tomography (CT) scan; the Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire – Revised (CFQ-R), a validated quality-of-life questionnaire; exercise capacity and monitoring; systemic and sputum inflammatory markers; and adverse events (AEs). A mechanistic study was performed in a subgroup in whom transgene deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) was measured alongside nasal and lower airway potential difference. Results: There was a significant (p = 0.046) treatment effect (TE) of 3.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1% to 7.3%] in the primary end point at 12 months and in secondary end points, including forced vital capacity (FVC) (p = 0.031) and CT gas trapping (p = 0.048). Other outcomes, although not reaching statistical significance, favoured active treatment. Effects were noted by 1 month and were irrespective of sex, age or CFTR mutation class. Subjects with a more severe baseline FEV1 had a FEV1 TE of 6.4% (95% CI 0.8% to 12.1%) and greater changes in many other secondary outcomes. However, the more mildly affected group also demonstrated benefits, particularly in small airway disease markers such as LCI. The active group showed a significantly (p = 0.032) greater bronchial chloride secretory response. No difference in treatment-attributable AEs was seen between the placebo and active groups. Conclusions: Monthly application of the pGM169/GL67A gene therapy formulation was associated with an improvement in lung function, other clinically relevant parameters and bronchial CFTR function, compared with placebo. Limitations: Although encouraging, the improvement in FEV1 was modest and was not accompanied by detectable improvement in patients’ quality of life. Future work: Future work will focus on attempts to increase efficacy by increasing dose or frequency, the coadministration of a CFTR potentiator, or the use of modified viral vectors capable of repeated administration. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01621867. Funding: This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research partnership