Enclosing a pen to improve response rate to postal questionnaire: an embedded randomised controlled trial

Background: Poor response to questionnaires collecting outcome data in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) can affect the validity of trial results. The aim of this study within a trial (SWAT) was to evaluate the effectiveness of including a pen with a follow-up postal questionnaire on response rate. Methods: A two-armed RCT was embedded within SSHeW (Stopping Slips among Healthcare Workers), a trial of slip-resistant footwear to reduce slips in NHS staff. Participants were randomised 1:1 to receive a pen or no pen with their follow-up questionnaire. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants who returned the questionnaire. Secondary outcomes were: time to response, completeness of response, and whether a postal reminder notice was required. Data were analysed using logistic regression, linear regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Overall, 1466 SSHEW trial participants were randomised into the SWAT. In total, 13 withdrew from the host trial before they were due to be sent their follow-up questionnaire, 728 participants received a pen with their questionnaire, and 725 did not receive a pen. A questionnaire was returned from 67.7% of the pen group and 64.7% of the group who did not receive a pen. There was no significant difference in return rates between the two groups (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.43, p=0.22), nor level of completeness of the questionnaires (AMD -0.01, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.05, p=0.77). There was weak evidence of a reduction in the proportion of participants requiring a reminder and in time to response in the pen group. Conclusion: Inclusion of a pen with the follow-up postal questionnaire sent to participants in the SSHeW trial did not statistically significantly increase the response rate. These results add to the body of evidence around improving response rates in trials. Trial registration: ISRCTN 33051393 (for SSHEW). Registered on 14/03/2017

Using a modified nominal group technique to develop complex interventions for a randomised controlled trial in children with symptomatic pes planus.

BackgroundChildren with symptomatic flat feet (pes planus) frequently present for care but there remains uncertainty about how best to manage their condition. There is considerable variation in practice between and within professions. We intend to conduct a three-arm trial to evaluate three frequently used interventions for pes planus (exercise and advice, exercise and advice plus prefabricated orthoses, and exercise and advice plus custom made orthoses). Each of these interventions are complex and required developing prior to starting the trial. This paper focusses on the development process undertaken to develop the interventions.MethodsWe used a modified Nominal Group Technique combining an electronic survey with two face-to-face meetings to achieve consensus on the final logic model and menu of options for each intervention. Using the Nominal Group Technique across consecutive meetings in combination with a questionnaire is novel, and enabled us to develop complex interventions that reflect contemporary clinical practice.ResultsIn total 16 healthcare professionals took part in the consensus. These consisted of 11 podiatrists, two orthotists, two physiotherapists, and one orthopaedic surgeon. Both meetings endorsed the logic model with amendments to reflect the wider psychosocial impact of pes planus and its treatment, as well as the increasing use of shared decision making in practice. Short lists of options were agreed for prefabricated and custom made orthoses, structures to target in stretching and strengthening exercises, and elements of health education and advice.ConclusionsOur novel modification of the nominal group technique produced a coherent logic model and shortlist of options for each of the interventions that explicitly enable adaptability. We formed a consensus on the range of what is permissible within each intervention so that their integrity is kept intact and they can be adapted and pragmatically applied. The process of combining survey data with face-to-face meetings has ensured the interventions mirror contemporary practice and may provide a template for other trials

An optimised patient information sheet did not significantly increase recruitment or retention in a falls prevention study: an embedded randomised recruitment trial

\ua9 2017 The Author(s).Background: Randomised controlled trials are generally regarded as the \u27gold standard\u27 experimental design to determine the effectiveness of an intervention. Unfortunately, many trials either fail to recruit sufficient numbers of participants, or recruitment takes longer than anticipated. The current embedded trial evaluates the effectiveness of optimised patient information sheets on recruitment of participants in a falls prevention trial. Methods: A three-arm, embedded randomised methodology trial was conducted within the National Institute for Health Research-funded REducing Falls with ORthoses and a Multifaceted podiatry intervention (REFORM) cohort randomised controlled trial. Routine National Health Service podiatry patients over the age of 65 were randomised to receive either the control patient information sheet (PIS) for the host trial or one of two optimised versions, a bespoke user-tested PIS or a template-developed PIS. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients in each group who went on to be randomised to the host trial. Results: Six thousand and nine hundred patients were randomised 1:1:1 into the embedded trial. A total of 193 (2.8%) went on to be randomised into the main REFORM trial (control n = 62, template-developed n = 68; bespoke user-tested n = 63). Information sheet allocation did not improve recruitment to the trial (odds ratios for the three pairwise comparisons: template vs control 1.10 (95% CI 0.77-1.56, p = 0.60); user-tested vs control 1.01 (95% CI 0.71-1.45, p = 0.94); and user-tested vs template 0.92 (95% CI 0.65-1.31, p = 0.65)). Conclusions: This embedded methodology trial has demonstrated limited evidence as to the benefit of using optimised information materials on recruitment and retention rates in the REFORM study. Trial registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number registry, ISRCTN68240461. Registered on 01 July 2011

Slip-resistant footwear to reduce slips among health-care workers : the SSHeW RCT

Background In Great Britain, 100,000 injuries due to slips, trips and falls on the level (as opposed to falls from a height, e.g. a ladder) occur in the workplace each year. They are the most common cause of non-fatal injury in the workplace, accounting for 30% of all those injuries reported to the Health and Safety Executive. Nearly 1 million working days are lost because of slips, trips and falls each year. Objectives To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 5-star, GRIP-rated, slip-resistant footwear in preventing slips in the workplace compared with usual footwear. Design A two-arm, multicentre, randomised controlled trial with an economic evaluation and qualitative study. Setting Seven NHS trusts in England. Participants NHS staff aged ≥ 18 years, working at least 22.5 hours per week in clinical, general or catering areas who owned a mobile phone. Staff required to wear protective footwear were excluded. Interventions Intervention participants were offered 5-star, GRIP-rated, slip-resistant footwear. The waiting list control group were asked to wear their usual work shoes for the duration of the study and were offered the trial footwear at the end of their participation. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was the incidence rate of self-reported slips in the workplace over 14 weeks. Secondary outcomes included the incidence rate of falls either resulting from a slip or not resulting from a slip, proportion of participants reporting a slip, fall or fracture, time to first slip and fall, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Results A total of 4553 eligible NHS staff were randomised (2275 to the intervention arm and 2278 to the control arm). In total, 6743 slips were reported [2633 in the intervention group (mean 1.16 per participant, range 0–36 per participant) and 4110 in the control group (mean 1.80 per participant, range 0–83 per participant)]. There was a statistically significant reduction in the slip rate in the intervention group relative to the control group (incidence rate ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.70; p < 0.001). Statistically significant reductions were observed in falls from a slip (incidence rate ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.28 to 0.92; p = 0.03), the proportion of participants who reported a slip (odds ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.66; p < 0.001) or fall (odds ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.99; p = 0.04) and the time to first slip (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.80; p < 0.001). Half of the intervention participants wore the shoes all the time at work. Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year in the base case was £38,900 from the NHS perspective and –£60,400 (i.e. cost saving) from the societal perspective. Limitations This was an unblinded trial in which outcome data were participant self-reported, which may have led to inaccuracies in the reported slip data. Exposure to the trial footwear was lower than hoped. Conclusions The offer and provision of 5-star, GRIP-rated footwear reduced slips in the workplace, was acceptable to participants and could be cost-effective. Future work Replication of the study within other settings may be required to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in other environments settings, such as catering and factories. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN33051393. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 3. See the NIHR Public Journals Library website for further project information. The Health and Safety Executive provided some research costs

Hydroxychloroquine effectiveness in reducing symptoms of hand osteoarthritis (HERO): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common type of arthritis, causing significant joint pain and disability. It is already a major cause of healthcare expenditure and its incidence will further increase with the ageing population. Current treatments for OA have major limitations and new analgesic treatments are needed. Synovitis is prevalent in OA and is associated with pain. Hydroxychloroquine is used in routine practice for treating synovitis in inflammatory arthritides, such as rheumatoid arthritis. We propose that treating patients with symptomatic hand OA with hydroxychloroquine will be a practical and safe treatment to reduce synovitis and pain. Methods/design HERO is an investigator-initiated, multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. A total of 252 subjects with symptomatic hand OA will be recruited across primary and secondary care sites in the UK and randomized on a 1:1 basis to active treatment or placebo for 12 months. Daily medication dose will range from 200 to 400 mg according to ideal body weight. The primary endpoint is change in average hand pain during the previous two weeks (measured on a numerical rating scale (NRS)) between baseline and six months. Secondary endpoints include other self-reported pain, function and quality-of-life measures and radiographic structural change at 12 months. A health economics analysis will also be performed. An ultrasound substudy will be conducted to examine baseline levels of synovitis. Linear and logistic regression will be used to compare changes between groups using univariable and multivariable modelling analyses. All analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. Discussion The HERO trial is designed to examine whether hydroxychloroquine is an effective analgesic treatment for OA and whether it provides any long-term structural benefit. The ultrasound substudy will address whether baseline synovitis is a predictor of therapeutic response. This will potentially provide a new treatment for OA, which could be of particular use in the primary care setting. Trial registration ISRCTN91859104

Hydroxychloroquine effectiveness in reducing symptoms of hand osteoarthritis (HERO): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common type of arthritis, causing significant joint pain and disability. It is already a major cause of healthcare expenditure and its incidence will further increase with the ageing population. Current treatments for OA have major limitations and new analgesic treatments are needed. Synovitis is prevalent in OA and is associated with pain. Hydroxychloroquine is used in routine practice for treating synovitis in inflammatory arthritides, such as rheumatoid arthritis. We propose that treating patients with symptomatic hand OA with hydroxychloroquine will be a practical and safe treatment to reduce synovitis and pain. Methods/design: HERO is an investigator-initiated, multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. A total of 252 subjects with symptomatic hand OA will be recruited across primary and secondary care sites in the UK and randomized on a 1:1 basis to active treatment or placebo for 12 months. Daily medication dose will range from 200 to 400 mg according to ideal body weight. The primary endpoint is change in average hand pain during the previous two weeks (measured on a numerical rating scale (NRS)) between baseline and six months. Secondary endpoints include other self-reported pain, function and quality-of-life measures and radiographic structural change at 12 months. A health economics analysis will also be performed. An ultrasound substudy will be conducted to examine baseline levels of synovitis. Linear and logistic regression will be used to compare changes between groups using univariable and multivariable modelling analyses. All analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. Discussion: The HERO trial is designed to examine whether hydroxychloroquine is an effective analgesic treatment for OA and whether it provides any long-term structural benefit. The ultrasound substudy will address whether baseline synovitis is a predictor of therapeutic response. This will potentially provide a new treatment for OA, which could be of particular use in the primary care setting

Internet-based treatment for older adults with depression and co-morbid cardiovascular disease: protocol for a randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and cognitive impairment are important causes of disability and poor health outcomes. In combination they lead to an even worse prognosis. Internet or web-based interventions have been shown to deliver efficacious psychological intervention programs for depression on a large scale, yet no published studies have evaluated their impact among patients with co-existing physical conditions. The aims of this randomised controlled trial are to determine the effects of an evidence-based internet intervention program for depression on depressive mood symptoms, cognitive function and treatment adherence in patients at risk of CVD.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This study is an internet-based, double-blind, parallel group randomised controlled trial. The trial will compare the effectiveness of online cognitive behavioural therapy with an online attention control placebo. The trial will consist of a 12-week intervention phase with a 40-week follow-up. It will be conducted in urban and rural New South Wales, Australia and will recruit a community-based sample of adults aged 45 to 75 years. Recruitment, intervention, cognitive testing and follow-up data collection will all be internet-based and automated. The primary outcome is a change in severity of depressive symptoms from baseline to three-months. Secondary outcomes are changes in cognitive function and adherence to treatment for CVD from baseline to three, six and 12-months.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Prior studies of depression amongst patients with CVD have targeted those with previous vascular events and major depression. The potential for intervening earlier in these disease states appears to have significant potential and has yet to be tested. Scalable psychological programs using web-based interventions could deliver care to large numbers in a cost effective way if efficacy were proved. This study will determine the effects of a web-based intervention on depressive symptoms and adherence to treatment among patients at risk of CVD. In addition it will also precisely and reliably define the effects of the intervention upon aspects of cognitive function that are likely to be affected early in at risk individuals, using sensitive and responsive measures.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12610000085077.aspx">ACTRN12610000085077</a></p

Development of a heptaplex PCR assay for identification of Staphylococcus aureus and CoNS with simultaneous detection of virulence and antibiotic resistance genes

Background Staphylococcal toxicity and antibiotic resistance (STAAR) have been menacing public health. Although vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (VRSA) is currently not as widespread as methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), genome evolution of MRSA into VRSA, including strains engineered within the same patient under anti-staphylococcal therapy, may build up to future public health concern. To further complicate diagnosis, infection control and anti-microbial chemotherapy, non-sterile sites such as the nares and the skin could contain both S. aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS), either of which could harbour mecA the gene driving staphylococcal methicillin-resistance and required for MRSA-VRSA evolution. Results A new heptaplex PCR assay has been developed which simultaneously detects seven markers for: i) eubacteria (16S rRNA), ii) Staphylococcus genus (tuf), iii) Staphylococcus aureus (spa), iv) CoNS (cns), v) Panton-Valentine leukocidin (pvl), vi) methicillin resistance (mecA), and vii) vancomycin resistance (vanA). Following successful validation using 255 reference bacterial strains, applicability to analyse clinical samples was evaluated by direct amplification in spiked blood cultures (n = 89) which returned 100 % specificity, negative and positive predictive values. The new assay has LoD of 1.0x103 CFU/mL for the 16S rRNA marker and 1.0x104 CFU/mL for six other markers and completes cycling in less than one hour. Conclusion The speed, sensitivity (100 %), NPV (100 %) and PPV (100 %) suggest the new heptaplex PCR assay could be easily integrated into a routine diagnostic microbiology workflow. Detection of the cns marker allows for unique identification of CoNS in mono-microbial and in poly-microbial samples containing mixtures of CoNS and S. aureus without recourse to the conventional elimination approach which is ambiguous. In addition to the SA-CoNS differential diagnostic essence of the new assay, inclusion of vanA primers will allow microbiology laboratories to stay ahead of the emerging MRSA-VRSA evolution. To the best of our knowledge, the new heptaplex PCR assay is the most multiplexed among similar PCR-based assays for simultaneous detection of STAAR

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

The Interleukin 3 Gene (IL3) Contributes to Human Brain Volume Variation by Regulating Proliferation and Survival of Neural Progenitors

One of the most significant evolutionary changes underlying the highly developed cognitive abilities of humans is the greatly enlarged brain volume. In addition to being far greater than in most other species, the volume of the human brain exhibits extensive variation and distinct sexual dimorphism in the general population. However, little is known about the genetic mechanisms underlying normal variation as well as the observed sex difference in human brain volume. Here we show that interleukin-3 (IL3) is strongly associated with brain volume variation in four genetically divergent populations. We identified a sequence polymorphism (rs31480) in the IL3 promoter which alters the expression of IL3 by affecting the binding affinity of transcription factor SP1. Further analysis indicated that IL3 and its receptors are continuously expressed in the developing mouse brain, reaching highest levels at postnatal day 1–4. Furthermore, we found IL3 receptor alpha (IL3RA) was mainly expressed in neural progenitors and neurons, and IL3 could promote proliferation and survival of the neural progenitors. The expression level of IL3 thus played pivotal roles in the expansion and maintenance of the neural progenitor pool and the number of surviving neurons. Moreover, we found that IL3 activated both estrogen receptors, but estrogen didn’t directly regulate the expression of IL3. Our results demonstrate that genetic variation in the IL3 promoter regulates human brain volume and reveals novel roles of IL3 in regulating brain development