Incorporating ‘recruitment’ in matrix projection models : estimation, parameters, and the influence of model structure

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ornithology 152, Suppl.2 (2012):585-595, doi:10.1007/s10336-010-0573-1.Advances in the estimation of population parameters using encounter data from marked individuals have made it possible to include estimates of the probability of recruitment in population projection models. However, the projected growth rate of the population, and the sensitivity of projected growth to changes in recruitment, can vary significantly depending upon both the structural form of the model and how recruitment is parameterized. We show that the common practices of (1) collapsing some age classes into a single, terminal ‘aggregated’ age-class, and (2) parameterizing recruitment using the proportion of recruited individuals (breeders) in a given age-class may confound analysis of age-based (Leslie) matrix projection models in some instances, relative to state-based projection models where recruited and pre-recruited individuals are treated as separate states. Failing to account for these differences can lead to misinterpretation of the relative role of recruitment in the dynamics of an age-structured population.We show that such problems can be avoided, either by structural changes to the terminal aggregated age-class in age-based models, or by using using a state-based model instead. Since all the metrics of general interest from a classical age-based matrix models are readily derived from a state-based model equivalent, this suggests there may be little reason to use the classical age-based approach in situations where recruitment is a parameter of interest

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

The Weaker Sex? The Propensity for Male-Biased Piglet Mortality

For the most part solutions to farm animal welfare issues, such as piglet mortality, are likely to lie within the scientific disciplines of environmental design and genetic selection, however understanding the ecological basis of some of the complex dynamics observed between parent and offspring could make a valuable contribution. One interesting, and often discussed, aspect of mortality is the propensity for it to be sex-biased. This study investigated whether known physiological and behavioural indicators of piglet survival differed between the sexes and whether life history strategies (often reported in wild or feral populations) relating to parental investment were being displayed in a domestic population of pigs. Sex ratio (proportion of males (males/males+females)) at birth was 0.54 and sex allocation (maternal investment measured as piglet birth weight/litter weight) was statistically significantly male-biased at 0.55 (t35 = 2.51 P = 0.017), suggesting that sows invested more in sons than daughters during gestation. Despite this investment in birth weight, a known survival indicator, total pre-weaning male mortality was statistically significantly higher than female mortality (12% vs. 7% respectively z = 2.06 P = 0.040). Males tended to suffer from crushing by the sow more than females and statistically significantly more males died from disease-related causes. Although males were born on average heavier, with higher body mass index and ponderal index, these differences were not sustained. In addition male piglets showed impaired thermoregulation compared to females. These results suggest male-biased mortality exists despite greater initial maternal investment, and therefore reflects the greater susceptibility of this sex to causal mortality factors. Life history strategies are being displayed by a domestic population of pigs with sows in this study displaying a form of parental optimism by allocating greater resources at birth to males and providing an over-supply of this more vulnerable sex in expectation of sex-biased mortality

Senescence Is More Important in the Natural Lives of Long- Than Short-Lived Mammals

Senescence has been widely detected among mammals, but its importance to fitness in wild populations remains controversial. According to evolutionary theories, senescence occurs at an age when selection is relatively weak, which in mammals can be predicted by adult survival rates. However, a recent analysis of senescence rates found more age-dependent mortalities in natural populations of longer lived mammal species. This has important implications to ageing research and for understanding the ecological relevance of senescence, yet so far these have not been widely appreciated. We re-address this question by comparing the mean and maximum life span of 125 mammal species. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that senescence occurs at a younger age relative to the mean natural life span in longer lived species.We show, using phylogenetically-informed generalised least squares models, a significant log-log relationship between mean life span, as calculated from estimates of adult survival for natural populations, and maximum recorded life span among mammals (R2=0.57, p<0.0001). This provides further support for a key prediction of evolutionary theories of ageing. The slope of this relationship (0.353+/-0.052 s.e.m.), however, indicated that mammals with higher survival rates have a mean life span representing a greater fraction of their potential maximum life span: the ratio of maximum to mean life span decreased significantly from >10 in short-lived to approximately 1.5 in long-lived mammal species.We interpret the ratio of maximum to mean life span to be an index of the likelihood an individual will experience senescence, which largely determines maximum life span. Our results suggest that senescence occurs at an earlier age relative to the mean life span, and therefore is experienced by more individuals and remains under selection pressure, in long- compared to short-lived mammals. A minimum rate of somatic degradation may ultimately limit the natural life span of mammals. Our results also indicate that senescence and modulating factors like oxidative stress are increasingly important to the fitness of longer lived mammals (and vice versa)

Status of Intraductal Therapy for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

The intraductal approach is particularly appealing in the setting of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), a preinvasive breast neoplasm that is thought to be entirely intraductal in its extent. Based on an emerging understanding of the anatomy of the ductal system as well as novel techniques to leverage the access accorded by the intraductal approach, researchers are actively exploring how ductal lavage, ductoscopy, and intraductal infusion of therapeutic agents may enhance breast cancer treatment. Both cytologic and molecular diagnostics continue to improve, and work is ongoing to identify the most effective diagnostic biomarkers for DCIS and cancer, although optimal targeting of the diseased duct remains an important consideration. Ductoscopy holds potential in detection of occult intraductal lesions, and ductoscopically guided lumpectomy could increase the likelihood of a more comprehensive surgical excision. Exciting pilot studies are in progress to determine the safety and feasibility of intraductal chemotherapy infusion. These studies are an important starting point for future investigations of intraductal ablative therapy for DCIS, because as our knowledge and techniques evolve, it is likely that DCIS may be the target most amenable to treatment by intraductal therapy. If such studies are successful, these approaches will allow an important and meaningful transformation in treatment options for women diagnosed with DCIS

Life-History Evolution on Tropidurinae Lizards: Influence of Lineage, Body Size and Climate

The study of life history variation is central to the evolutionary theory. In many ectothermic lineages, including lizards, life history traits are plastic and relate to several sources of variation including body size, which is both a factor and a life history trait likely to modulate reproductive parameters. Larger species within a lineage, for example tend to be more fecund and have larger clutch size, but clutch size may also be influenced by climate, independently of body size. Thus, the study of climatic effects on lizard fecundity is mandatory on the current scenario of global climatic change. We asked how body and clutch size have responded to climate through time in a group of tropical lizards, the Tropidurinae, and how these two variables relate to each other. We used both traditional and phylogenetic comparative methods. Body and clutch size are variable within Tropidurinae, and both traits are influenced by phylogenetic position. Across the lineage, species which evolved larger size produce more eggs and neither trait is influenced by temperature components. A climatic component of precipitation, however, relates to larger female body size, and therefore seems to exert an indirect relationship on clutch size. This effect of precipitation on body size is likely a correlate of primary production. A decrease in fecundity is expected for Tropidurinae species on continental landmasses, which are predicted to undergo a decrease in summer rainfall

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence

Bacillus anthracis Peptidoglycan Stimulates an Inflammatory Response in Monocytes through the p38 Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase Pathway

We hypothesized that the peptidoglycan component of B. anthracis may play a critical role in morbidity and mortality associated with inhalation anthrax. To explore this issue, we purified the peptidoglycan component of the bacterial cell wall and studied the response of human peripheral blood cells. The purified B. anthracis peptidoglycan was free of non-covalently bound protein but contained a complex set of amino acids probably arising from the stem peptide. The peptidoglycan contained a polysaccharide that was removed by mild acid treatment, and the biological activity remained with the peptidoglycan and not the polysaccharide. The biological activity of the peptidoglycan was sensitive to lysozyme but not other hydrolytic enzymes, showing that the activity resides in the peptidoglycan component and not bacterial DNA, RNA or protein. B. anthracis peptidoglycan stimulated monocytes to produce primarily TNFα; neutrophils and lymphocytes did not respond. Peptidoglycan stimulated monocyte p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase and p38 activity was required for TNFα production by the cells. We conclude that peptidoglycan in B. anthracis is biologically active, that it stimulates a proinflammatory response in monocytes, and uses the p38 kinase signal transduction pathway to do so. Given the high bacterial burden in pulmonary anthrax, these findings suggest that the inflammatory events associated with peptidoglycan may play an important role in anthrax pathogenesis