HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air-pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone and the avoided deaths due to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, power and industry (PIN), ground transportation (TRN), and residential (RES), and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF HTAP2), and epidemiologically derived concentration response functions. We build on results from previous studies of TF HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290 000 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 30 000, 600 000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O3-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS, and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE, and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6000 (−3400, 15 500) deaths per year and 25 100 (8200, 35 800) deaths per year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances

Estimates of the Global Burden of Ambient PM2.5, Ozone, and NO2 on Asthma Incidence and Emergency Room Visits

Background: Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter (P[M.sub.2.5]), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide (N[O.sub.2]) concentrations. Methods: We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data. Results: We estimated that 9-23 million and 5-10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and P[M.sub.2.5], respectively, representing 8-20% and 4-9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for ~37% and 73% of ozone and P[M.sub.2.5] impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and P[M.sub.2.5] (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India. Conclusions: These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation

Long-range transport impacts on surface aerosol concentrations and the contributions to haze events in China: an HTAP2 multi-model study

Haze has been severely affecting the densely populated areas in China recently. While many of the efforts have been devoted to investigating the impact of local anthropogenic emission, limited attention has been paid to the contribution from long-range transport. In this study, we apply simulations from six participating models supplied through the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise to investigate the long-range transport impact of Europe (EUR) and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU) on the surface air quality in eastern Asia (EAS), with special focus on their contributions during the haze episodes in China. The impact of 20 % anthropogenic emission perturbation from the source region is extrapolated by a factor of 5 to estimate the full impact. We find that the full impacts from EUR and RBU are 0.99 µg m−3 (3.1 %) and 1.32 µg m−3 (4.1 %) during haze episodes, while the annual averaged full impacts are only 0.35 µg m−3 (1.7 %) and 0.53 µg m−3 (2.6 %). By estimating the aerosol response within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL), we find that long-range transport from EUR within the PBL contributes to 22–38 % of the total column density of aerosol response in EAS. Comparison with the HTAP phase 1 (HTAP1) assessment reveals that from 2000 to 2010, the long-range transport from Europe to eastern Asia has decreased significantly by a factor of 2–10 for surface aerosol mass concentration due to the simultaneous emission reduction in source regions and emission increase in the receptor region. We also find the long-range transport from the Europe and RBU regions increases the number of haze events in China by 0.15 % and 0.11 %, and the North China Plain and southeastern China has 1–3 extra haze days (<3  %). This study is the first investigation into the contribution of long-range transport to haze in China with multi-model experiments

The impact of future emission policies on tropospheric ozone using a parameterised approach

This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source–receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds – VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance only, neglecting any impact from climate change. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 – Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation perform well for most regions. The O3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in the TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remain one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and south Asia regions. Emission changes for the future Evaluating the CLimate and Air Quality ImPacts of Short-livEd Pollutants (ECLIPSE) scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O3 concentrations will increase regionally by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A change in the global tropospheric O3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m−2 from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O3

Multi-model study of HTAP II on sulfur and nitrogen deposition

This study uses multi-model ensemble results of 11 models from the second phase of Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP II) to calculate the global sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition in 2010. Modeled wet deposition is evaluated with observation networks in North America, Europe and East Asia. The modeled results agree well with observations, with 76–83 % of stations being predicted within ±50 % of observations. The models underestimate SO42−, NO3− and NH4+ wet depositions in some European and East Asian stations but overestimate NO3− wet deposition in the eastern United States. Intercomparison with previous projects (PhotoComp, ACCMIP and HTAP I) shows that HTPA II has considerably improved the estimation of deposition at European and East Asian stations. Modeled dry deposition is generally higher than the inferential data calculated by observed concentration and modeled velocity in North America, but the inferential data have high uncertainty, too. The global S deposition is 84 Tg(S) in 2010, with 49 % in continental regions and 51 % in the ocean (19 % of which coastal). The global N deposition consists of 59 Tg(N) oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition and 64 Tg(N) reduced nitrogen (NHx) deposition in 2010. About 65 % of N is deposited in continental regions, and 35 % in the ocean (15 % of which coastal). The estimated outflow of pollution from land to ocean is about 4 Tg(S) for S deposition and 18 Tg(N) for N deposition. Comparing our results to the results in 2001 from HTAP I, we find that the global distributions of S and N deposition have changed considerably during the last 10 years. The global S deposition decreases 2 Tg(S) (3 %) from 2001 to 2010, with significant decreases in Europe (5 Tg(S) and 55 %), North America (3 Tg(S) and 29 %) and Russia (2 Tg(S) and 26 %), and increases in South Asia (2 Tg(S) and 42 %) and the Middle East (1 Tg(S) and 44 %). The global N deposition increases by 7 Tg(N) (6 %), mainly contributed by South Asia (5 Tg(N) and 39 %), East Asia (4 Tg(N) and 21 %) and Southeast Asia (2 Tg(N) and 21 %). The NHx deposition increases with no control policy on NH3 emission in North America. On the other hand, NOy deposition has started to dominate in East Asia (especially China) due to boosted NOx emission

Updated global estimates of respiratory mortality in adults ≥ 30 years of age attributable to long-term ozone exposure

BACKGROUND: Relative risk estimates for long-term ozone (O3) exposure and respiratory mortality from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (ACS CPS-II) cohort have been used to estimate global O3-attributable mortality in adults. Updated relative risk estimates are now available for the same cohort based on an expanded study population with longer follow-up. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the global burden and spatial distribution of respiratory mortality attributable to long-term O3 exposure in adults ≥30 y of age using updated effect estimates from the ACS CPS-II cohort. METHODS: We used GEOS-Chem simulations (2×2.5º grid resolution) to estimate annual O3 exposures, and estimated total respiratory deaths in 2010 that were attributable to long-term annual O3 exposure based on the updated relative risk estimates and minimum risk thresholds set at the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the most recent CPS-II analysis. These estimates were compared with attributable mortality based on the earlier CPS-II analysis, using 6-mo average exposures and risk thresholds corresponding to the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the earlier study population. RESULTS: We estimated 1.04–1.23 million respiratory deaths in adults attributable to O3 exposures using the updated relative risk estimate and exposure parameters, compared with 0.40–0.55 million respiratory deaths attributable to O3 exposures based on the earlier CPS-II risk estimate and parameters. Increases in estimated attributable mortality were larger in northern India, southeast China, and Pakistan than in Europe, eastern United States, and northeast China. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the potential magnitude of health benefits of air quality policies targeting O3, health co-benefits of climate mitigation policies, and health implications of climate change-driven changes in O3 concentrations, are larger than previously thought

Global and regional radiative forcing from 20 % reductions in BC, OC and SO4 – an HTAP2 multi-model study

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20 % reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4) from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8 mW m-2 Tg-1&nbsp;for BC, between &minus;2.4 and &minus;17.9 mW  m-2 Tg-1 for OA and between &minus;3.6 and &minus;10.3 W  m-2 Tg-1&nbsp;for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20 % emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4&nbsp;by 25 % when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4&nbsp;is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37 % since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.</p

Estimates of the global burden of ambient PM2.5, ozone, and NO2 on asthma incidence and emergency room visits

Abstract Background: Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations. Methods: We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data. Results: We estimated that 9–23 million and 5–10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and PM2.5, respectively, representing 8–20% and 4–9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for ∼37% and 73% of ozone and PM2.5 impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and PM2.5 (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India. Conclusions: These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP376

Updated global estimates of respiratory mortality in adults >/=30Years of age attributable to long-term ozone exposure

BACKGROUND: Relative risk estimates for long-term ozone (O3) exposure and respiratory mortality from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (ACS CPS-II) cohort have been used to estimate global O3-attributable mortality in adults. Updated relative risk estimates are now available for the same cohort based on an expanded study population with longer follow-up. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the global burden and spatial distribution of respiratory mortality attributable to long-term O3 exposure in adults >/=30y of age using updated effect estimates from the ACS CPS-II cohort. METHODS: We used GEOS-Chem simulations (2x2.5 masculine grid resolution) to estimate annual O3 exposures, and estimated total respiratory deaths in 2010 that were attributable to long-term annual O3 exposure based on the updated relative risk estimates and minimum risk thresholds set at the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the most recent CPS-II analysis. These estimates were compared with attributable mortality based on the earlier CPS-II analysis, using 6-mo average exposures and risk thresholds corresponding to the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the earlier study population. RESULTS: We estimated 1.04-1.23 million respiratory deaths in adults attributable to O3 exposures using the updated relative risk estimate and exposure parameters, compared with 0.40-0.55 million respiratory deaths attributable to O3 exposures based on the earlier CPS-II risk estimate and parameters. Increases in estimated attributable mortality were larger in northern India, southeast China, and Pakistan than in Europe, eastern United States, and northeast China. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the potential magnitude of health benefits of air quality policies targeting O3, health co-benefits of climate mitigation policies, and health implications of climate change-driven changes in O3 concentrations, are larger than previously thought. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1390