Comparison of Glasgow Admission Prediction Score and Amb Score in predicting need for inpatient care.

AIM: We compared the abilities of two established clinical scores to predict emergency department (ED) disposition: the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score (GAPS) and the Ambulatory Score (Ambs). METHODS: The scores were compared in a prospective, multicentre cohort study. We recruited consecutive patients attending ED triage at two UK sites: Northern General Hospital in Sheffield and Glasgow Royal Infirmary, between February and May 2016. Each had a GAPS and Ambs calculated at the time of triage, with the triage nurses and treating clinicians blinded to the scores. Patients were followed up to hospital discharge. The ability of the scores to discriminate discharge from ED and from hospital at 12 and 48 hours after arrival was compared using the area under the curve (AUC) of their receiving-operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: 1424 triage attendances were suitable for analysis during the study period, of which 567 (39.8%) were admitted. The AUC for predicting admission was significantly higher for GAPS at 0.807 (95% CI 0.785 to 0.830), compared with 0.743 (95% CI 0.717 to 0.769) for Ambs, P12 hour and >48 hour. GAPS was also more accurate as a binary test, correctly predicting 1057 outcomes compared with 1004 for Ambs (74.2vs70.5%, P=0.012). CONCLUSION: The GAPS is a significantly better predictor of need for hospital admission than Ambs in an unselected ED population

A service evaluation of FIT and anaemia for risk stratification in the two week wait pathway for colorectal cancer

Introduction: New national guidance on urgent referral for investigation for Colorectal Cancer (CRC) included faecal occult blood testing in 2015. We evaluated faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and anaemia as risk stratification tools in symptomatic patients suspected of having CRC.Methods: Postal FIT was incorporated into the CRC two week wait (2WW) pathway for all patients without rectal bleeding in 2016. Patients were investigated in the 2WW pathway as normal and outcomes of investigations were prospectively recorded. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin less than 120g/L in women and less than 130g/L in men.Results: FIT kits were sent to 1106 patients with an 80.9% return rate; 810 patients completed investigation with 40 CRCs diagnosed (4.9%). Median FIT results were significantly higher in patients who were anaemic (median 4.8 iqr 0.8-34.1 versus 1.2 iqr 0-6.4, Mann-Whitney p less than 0.001).Some 538 (60.4%) had a result of less than 4 µgHb/gFaeces (limit of detectability) and 621 (69.7%) a result less than 10 µgHb/gFaeces. Sixty per cent of CRCs had a FIT reading of >150 µgHb/gFaeces. Five CRCs diagnosed in patients with a FIT4 µgHb/gFaeces had 97.5% sensitivity and 64.5% specificity for CRC diagnosis. A FIT result of >4 µgHb/gFaeces and/or anaemia had a 100% sensitivity and 45.3% specificity for CRC diagnosis.Conclusion: FIT is most useful at the extremes of detectability; strongly positive readings predict high rates of CRC and other significant pathology, whilst very low readings in the absence of anaemia or palpable rectal mass identify a group with very low risk. High return rates for FIT within this 2WW pathway indicate its acceptability

Multicentre, prospective observational study of the correlation between the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score and adverse outcomes

Objectives: To assess whether the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score (GAPS) is correlated with hospital length of stay, 6-month hospital readmission and 6-month all-cause mortality. This study represents a 6-month follow-up of patients who were included in an external validation of the GAPS’ ability to predict admission at the point of triage. Setting: Sampling was conducted between February and May 2016 at two separate emergency departments (EDs) in Sheffield and Glasgow. Participants: Data were collected prospectively at triage for consecutive adult patients who presented to the ED within sampling times. Any patients who avoided formal triage were excluded from the study. In total, 1420 patients were recruited. Primary outcomes: GAPS was calculated following triage and did not influence patient management. Length of hospital stay, hospital readmission and mortality against GAPS were modelled using survival analysis at 6 months. Results: Of the 1420 patients recruited, 39.6% of these patients were initially admitted to hospital. At 6 months, 30.6% of patients had been readmitted and 5.6% of patients had died. For those admitted at first presentation, the chance of being discharged fell by 4.3% (95% CI 3.2% to 5.3%) per GAPS point increase. Cox regression indicated a 9.2% (95% CI 7.3% to 11.1%) increase in the chance of 6-month hospital readmission per point increase in GAPS. An association between GAPS and 6-month mortality was demonstrated, with a hazard increase of 9.0% (95% CI 6.9% to 11.2%) for every point increase in GAPS. Conclusion: A higher GAPS is associated with increased hospital length of stay, 6-month hospital readmission and 6-month all-cause mortality. While GAPS’s primary application may be to predict admission and support clinical decision making, GAPS may provide valuable insight into inpatient resource allocation and bed planning

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

Spectral and transport properties of doped Mott-Hubbard systems with incommensurate magnetic order

We present spectral and optical properties of the Hubbard model on a two-dimensional square lattice using a generalization of dynamical mean-field theory to magnetic states in finite dimension. The self-energy includes the effect of spin fluctuations and screening of the Coulomb interaction due to particle-particle scattering. At half-filling the quasiparticles reduce the width of the Mott-Hubbard `gap' and have dispersions and spectral weights that agree remarkably well with quantum Monte Carlo and exact diagonalization calculations. Away from half-filling we consider incommensurate magnetic order with a varying local spin direction, and derive the photoemission and optical spectra. The incommensurate magnetic order leads to a pseudogap which opens at the Fermi energy and coexists with a large Mott-Hubbard gap. The quasiparticle states survive in the doped systems, but their dispersion is modified with the doping and a rigid band picture does not apply. Spectral weight in the optical conductivity is transferred to lower energies and the Drude weight increases linearly with increasing doping. We show that incommensurate magnetic order leads also to mid-gap states in the optical spectra and to decreased scattering rates in the transport processes, in qualitative agreement with the experimental observations in doped systems. The gradual disappearence of the spiral magnetic order and the vanishing pseudogap with increasing temperature is found to be responsible for the linear resistivity. We discuss the possible reasons why these results may only partially explain the features observed in the optical spectra of high temperature superconductors.Comment: 22 pages, 18 figure

The Perplexing Problem of Persistently PCR-Positive Personnel

Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published return-to-work criteria for healthcare personnel who had recovered from severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. These criteria were most recently updated on April 3, 2020.1 The CDC has endorsed 2 different approaches to allow staff to return to work: a symptom or time-based strategy and a test-based strategy. Many institutions initially adopted the test-based strategy, in part because CDC initially recommended it as the preferred option (but no longer does so) and, in part, because it seemed the more definitive or conservative of the 2 CDC options

Grain Surface Models and Data for Astrochemistry

AbstractThe cross-disciplinary field of astrochemistry exists to understand the formation, destruction, and survival of molecules in astrophysical environments. Molecules in space are synthesized via a large variety of gas-phase reactions, and reactions on dust-grain surfaces, where the surface acts as a catalyst. A broad consensus has been reached in the astrochemistry community on how to suitably treat gas-phase processes in models, and also on how to present the necessary reaction data in databases; however, no such consensus has yet been reached for grain-surface processes. A team of ∼25 experts covering observational, laboratory and theoretical (astro)chemistry met in summer of 2014 at the Lorentz Center in Leiden with the aim to provide solutions for this problem and to review the current state-of-the-art of grain surface models, both in terms of technical implementation into models as well as the most up-to-date information available from experiments and chemical computations. This review builds on the results of this workshop and gives an outlook for future directions