Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Factors influencing place of delivery for women in Kenya: an analysis of the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 2008/2009

Background Maternal mortality in Kenya increased from 380/100000 live births to 530/100000 live births between 1990 and 2008. Skilled assistance during childbirth is central to reducing maternal mortality yet the proportion of deliveries taking place in health facilities where such assistance can reliably be provided has remained below 50% since the early 1990s. We use the 2008/2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey data to describe the factors that determine where women deliver in Kenya and to explore reasons given for home delivery. Methods Data on place of delivery, reasons for home delivery, and a range of potential explanatory factors were collected by interviewer-led questionnaire on 3977 women and augmented with distance from the nearest health facility estimated using health facility Global Positioning System (GPS) co-ordinates. Predictors of whether the woman’s most recent delivery was in a health facility were explored in an exploratory risk factor analysis using multiple logistic regression. The main reasons given by the woman for home delivery were also examined. Results Living in urban areas, being wealthy, more educated, using antenatal care services optimally and lower parity strongly predicted where women delivered, and so did region, ethnicity, and type of facilities used. Wealth and rural/urban residence were independently related. The effect of distance from a health facility was not significant after controlling for other variables. Women most commonly cited distance and/or lack of transport as reasons for not delivering in a health facility but over 60% gave other reasons including 20.5% who considered health facility delivery unnecessary, 18% who cited abrupt delivery as the main reason and 11% who cited high cost. Conclusion Physical access to health facilities through distance and/or lack of transport, and economic considerations are important barriers for women to delivering in a health facility in Kenya. Some women do not perceive a need to deliver in a health facility and may value health facility delivery less with subsequent deliveries. Access to appropriate transport for mothers in labour and improving the experiences and outcomes for mothers using health facilities at childbirth augmented by health education may increase uptake of health facility delivery in Kenya

The Problem of Large Leptonic Mixing

Unlike in the quark sector where simple $S_3$ permutation symmetries can generate the general features of quark masses and mixings, we find it impossible (under conditions of hierarchy for the charged leptons and without considering the see-saw mechanism or a more elaborate extension of the SM) to guarantee large leptonic mixing angles with any general symmetry or transformation of only known particles. If such symmetries exist, they must be realized in more extended scenarios.Comment: RevTeX, 4 pages, no figure

Uganda’s HIV Prevention Success: The Role of Sexual Behavior Change and the National Response. Commentary on Green et al. (2006)

The paper by Green et al. (vol. 10, this issue

Prevalence and pattern of HIV-related malnutrition among women in sub-Saharan Africa: a meta-analysis of demographic health surveys

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The world's highest HIV infection rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where adult prevalence in most countries exceeds 25%. Food shortages and malnutrition have combined with HIV/AIDS to bring some countries to the brink of crisis. The aim of this study was to describe prevalence of malnutrition among HIV-infected women and variations across socioeconomic status using data from 11 countries in SSA.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study uses meta-analytic procedures to synthesize the results of most recent data sets available from Demographic and Health Surveys of 11 countries in SSA. Pooled prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random-and fixed-effects models. Subgroup and leave-one-country-out sensitivity analyses were also carried out.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pooling the prevalence estimates of HIV-related malnutrition yielded an overall prevalence of 10.3% (95% CI 7.4% to 14.1%) with no statistically significant heterogeneity (<it>I</it>²= 0.0%, p = .903). The prevalence estimates decreased with increasing wealth index and education attainment. The pooled prevalence of HIV-related malnutrition was higher among women residing in rural areas than among women residing in urban areas; and lower among women that were professionally employed than unemployed or women in agricultural or manual work.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Prevalence of HIV-related malnutrition among women varies by wealth status, education attainment, occupation, and type of residence (rural/urban). The observed socioeconomic disparities can help provide more information about population subgroups in particular need and high risk groups, which may in turn lead to the development and implementation of more effective intervention programs.</p

Beta decay of 115-In to the first excited level of 115-Sn: Potential outcome for neutrino mass

Recent observation of beta decay of 115-In to the first excited level of 115-Sn with an extremely low Q_beta value (Q_beta ~ 1 keV) could be used to set a limit on neutrino mass. To give restriction potentially competitive with those extracted from experiments with 3-H (~2 eV) and 187-Re (~15 eV), atomic mass difference between 115-In and 115-Sn and energy of the first 115-Sn level should be remeasured with higher accuracy (possibly of the order of ~1 eV).Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures; talk at the NANP'05 Conferenc

Geographical disparities in core population coverage indicators for roll back malaria in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Implementation of known effective interventions would necessitate the reduction of malaria burden by half by the year 2010. Identifying geographical disparities of coverage of these interventions at small area level is useful to inform where greatest scaling-up efforts should be concentrated. They also provide baseline data against which future scaling-up of interventions can be compared. However, population data are not always available at local level. This study applied spatial smoothing methods to generate maps at subdistrict level in Malawi to serve such purposes. METHODS: Data for the following responses from the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were aggregated at subdistrict level: (1) households possessing at least one bednet; (2) children under 5 years who slept under a bednet the night before the survey; (3) bednets retreated with insecticide within past 6-12 months preceding the survey; (4) children under 5 who had fever two weeks before the survey and received treatment within 24 hours from the onset of fever; and (5) women who received intermittent preventive treatment of malaria during their last pregnancy. Each response was geographically smoothed at subdistrict level by applying conditional autoregressive models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. RESULTS: The underlying geographical patterns of coverage of indicators were more clear in the smoothed maps than in the original unsmoothed maps, with relatively high coverage in urban areas than in rural areas for all indicators. The percentage of households possessing at least one bednet was 19% (95% credible interval (CI): 16-21%), with 9% (95% CI: 7-11%) of children sleeping under a net, while 18% (95% CI: 16-19%) of households had retreated their nets within past 12 months prior to the survey. The northern region and lakeshore areas had high bednet coverage, but low usage and re-treatment rates. Coverage rate of children who received antimalarial treatment within 24 hours after onset of fever was consistently low for most parts of the country, with mean coverage of 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5-5.0%). About 48% (95% CI: 47-50%) of women received antimalarial prophylaxis during their pregnancy, with highest rates in the southern and northern areas. CONCLUSION: The striking geographical patterns, for example between predominantly urban and rural areas, may reflect spatial differences in provider compliance or coverage, and can partly be explained by socio-economic and cultural differences. The wide gap between high bed net coverage and low retreatment rates may reflect variation in perceptions about malaria, which may be addressed by implementing information, education and communication campaigns or introducing long lasting insecticide nets. Our results demonstrate that DHS data, with appropriate methodology, can provide acceptable estimates at sub-national level for monitoring and evaluation of malaria control goals

Duration and determinants of birth interval among women of child bearing age in Southern Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Longer intervals between consecutive births decrease the number of children a woman can have. This results in beneficial effects on population size and on the health status of mothers and children. Therefore, understanding the practice of birth interval and its determinants is helpful to design evidence based strategies for interventions. The objective of this study was to determine duration and determinants of birth interval among women of child bearing age in Lemo district, southern Ethiopia in March 2010.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A community based cross sectional study design with stratified multistage sampling technique was employed. A sample of 844 women of child bearing age were selected by using simple random sampling technique after complete census was conducted in selected kebeles prior to data collection. Structured interviewer administered questionnaire was used for data collection. Actual birth interval was measured with the respondents' memory since majority of the women or their children in the area had no birth certificate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Majority (57%) of women were practicing short birth interval length with the median birth interval length of 33 months. Actual birth interval length is significantly shorter than preferred birth interval length. Birth interval showed significant variation by contraceptive use, residence, wealth index, breast feeding and occupation of husbands.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>low proportion of optimal birth spacing practices with short actual birth interval length and longer preferred birth interval lengths were evident among the study subjects. Hence interventions to enhance contraceptive utilization behaviors among women in Lemo district would be helpful to narrow the gap between optimal and actual birth spacing.</p

Uganda's HIV Prevention Success: The Role of Sexual Behavior Change and the National Response

There has been considerable interest in understanding what may have led to Uganda's dramatic decline in HIV prevalence, one of the world's earliest and most compelling AIDS prevention successes. Survey and other data suggest that a decline in multi-partner sexual behavior is the behavioral change most likely associated with HIV decline. It appears that behavior change programs, particularly involving extensive promotion of “zero grazing” (faithfulness and partner reduction), largely developed by the Ugandan government and local NGOs including faith-based, women’s, people-living-with-AIDS and other community-based groups, contributed to the early declines in casual/multiple sexual partnerships and HIV incidence and, along with other factors including condom use, to the subsequent sharp decline in HIV prevalence. Yet the debate over “what happened in Uganda” continues, often involving divisive abstinence-versus-condoms rhetoric, which appears more related to the culture wars in the USA than to African social reality