Projecting prevalence by stage of care for prostate cancer and estimating future health service needs: protocol for a modelling study

Introduction Current strategies for the management of prostate cancer are inadequate in Australia. We will, in this study, estimate current service needs and project the future needs for prostate cancer patients in Australia. Methods and analysis First, we will project the future prevalence of prostate cancer for 2010-2018 using data for 1972-2008 from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry. These projections, based on modelled incidence and survival estimates, will be estimated using PIAMOD (Prevalence, Incidence, Analysis MODel) software. Then the total prevalence will be decomposed into five stages of care: initial care, continued monitoring, recurrence, last year of life and long-term survivor. Finally, data from the NSW Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study, including data on patterns of treatment and associated quality of life, will be used to estimate the type and amount of services that will be needed by prostate cancer patients in each stage of care. In addition, Central Cancer Registry episode data will be used to estimate transition rates from localised or locally advanced prostate cancer to metastatic disease. Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits data, linked with Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study data, will be used to complement the Cancer Registry episode data. The methods developed will be applied Australia-wide to obtain national estimates of the future prevalence of prostate cancer for different stages of clinical care. Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee. Results of the study will be disseminated widely to different interest groups and organisations through a report, conference presentations and peer-reviewed articles.This work is supported by the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia (grant number: PCFA – YI 0410). Both David Smith and Xue Qin Yu are supported by an Australian NHMRC Training Fellowship (Ref 1016598, 550002). Mark Clements is supported by an Australian NHMRC Career Development Award (Ref 471491)

Evolution of the far-infrared luminosity functions in the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic Legacy Survey

We present new observational determination of the evolution of the rest-frame 70 and 160 micron and total infrared (TIR) galaxy luminosity functions (LFs) using 70 micron data from the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic Legacy Survey (SWIRE). The LFs were constructed for sources with spectroscopic redshifts only in the XMM-LSS and Lockman Hole fields from the SWIRE photometric redshift catalogue. The 70 micron and TIR LFs were constructed in the redshift range 0<z<1.2 and the 160 micron LF was constructed in the redshift range 0<z<0.5 using a parametric Bayesian and the vmax methods. We assume in our models, that the faint-end power-law index of the LF does not evolve with redshifts. We find the the double power-law model is a better representation of the IR LF than the more commonly used power-law and Gaussian model. We model the evolution of the FIR LFs as a function of redshift where where the characteristic luminosity, $L^\ast$ evolve as \propto(1+z)^{\alpha_\textsc{l}}. The rest-frame 70 micron LF shows a strong luminosity evolution out to z=1.2 with alpha_l=3.41^{+0.18}_{-0.25}. The rest-frame 160 micron LF also showed rapid luminosity evolution with alpha_l=5.53^{+0.28}_{-0.23} out to z=0.5. The rate of evolution in luminosity is consistent with values estimated from previous studies using data from IRAS, ISO and Spitzer. The TIR LF evolves in luminosity with alpha_l=3.82^{+0.28}_{-0.16} which is in agreement with previous results from Spitzer 24 micron which find strong luminosity evolution. By integrating the LF we calculated the co-moving IR luminosity density out to z=1.2, which confirm the rapid evolution in number density of LIRGs and ULIRGs which contribute ~68^{+10}_{-07} % to the co-moving star formation rate density at z=1.2. Our results based on 70 micron data confirms that the bulk of the star formation at z=1 takes place in dust obscured objects.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figure

Exploratory Combinatorial Optimization with Reinforcement Learning

Many real-world problems can be reduced to combinatorial optimization on a graph, where the subset or ordering of vertices that maximize some objective function must be found. With such tasks often NP-hard and analytically intractable, reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise as a framework with which efficient heuristic methods to tackle these problems can be learned. Previous works construct the solution subset incrementally, adding one element at a time, however, the irreversible nature of this approach prevents the agent from revising its earlier decisions, which may be necessary given the complexity of the optimization task. We instead propose that the agent should seek to continuously improve the solution by learning to explore at test time. Our approach of exploratory combinatorial optimization (ECO-DQN) is, in principle, applicable to any combinatorial problem that can be defined on a graph. Experimentally, we show our method to produce state-of-the-art RL performance on the Maximum Cut problem. Moreover, because ECO-DQN can start from any arbitrary configuration, it can be combined with other search methods to further improve performance, which we demonstrate using a simple random search.Comment: In Proceedings of the 34th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 202

K band Spectroscopy of Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxies: The 2 Jy Sample

We present near-infrared spectroscopy for a complete sample of 33 ultraluminous infrared galaxies at a resolution of R\approx 1000. Most of the wavelength range from 1.80-2.20 microns in the rest frame is covered, including the Pa-alpha and Br-gamma hydrogen recombination lines, and the molecular hydrogen vibration-rotation 1-0 S(1) and S(3) lines. Other species, such as He I, [Fe II], and [Si VI] appear in the spectra as well, in addition to a number of weaker molecular hydrogen lines. Nuclear extractions for each of the individual galaxies are presented here, along with spectra of secondary nuclei, where available. The Pa-alpha emission is seen to be highly concentrated on the nuclei, typically with very little emision extending beyond a radius of 1 kpc. Signatures of active nuclei are rare in the present sample, occurring in only two of the 33 galaxies. It is found that visual extinctions to the nuclei via the Pa-alpha/Br-gamma line ratio in excess of 10 magnitudes are relatively common among ULIRGs, and that visual extinctions greater than 25 mag are necessary to conceal a QSO emitting half the total bolometric luminosity. The vibration-rotation lines of molecular hydrogen appear to be predominantly thermal in origin, with effective temperatures generally around 2200 K. The relative nuclear velocities between double nucleus ULIRGs are investigated, through which it is inferred that the maximum deprojected velocity difference is about 200 km/s. This figure is lower than the velocities predicted by physical models of strong interactions/mergers of large, gas-rich galaxies.Comment: 52 pages (19 with just figures), 9 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal; Table 3 not formatted properly on astro-ph: get source and print Murphy.tab3.p

Fracture toughness of the cancellous bone of FNF femoral heads in relation to its microarchitecture

This study considers the relationship between microarchitecture and mechanical properties for cancellous bone specimens collected from a cohort of patients who had suffered fractured necks of femur. OP is an acute skeletal condition with huge socioeconomic impact [1] and it is associated with changes in both bone quantity and quality [2], which affect greatly the strength and toughness of the tissue [3].Support was provided by the EPSRC (EP/K020196: Point-ofCare High Accuracy Fracture Risk Prediction), the UK Department of Transport under the BOSCOS (Bone Scanning for Occupant Safety) project, and approved by Gloucester and Cheltenham NHS Trust hospitals under ethical consent (BOSCOS – Mr. Curwen CI REC ref 01/179G)

The SCUBA Half Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES) - III : Identification of radio and mid-infrared counterparts to submillimetre galaxies

Peer reviewe

Mitigation of Electrostatic Hazards on Spacecraft

Spacecraft are complex systems operating in challenging environments that require customized testing procedures designed to mitigate the unique hazards of a space launch environment. As an example of those testing procedures, we describe the test methodology and recommendations developed to mitigate electrostatic discharges that could have triggered an explosion of the Space Shuttle during launch, return to launch site, abort after one orbit, or during normal landing

The 'permeome' of the malaria parasite: an overview of the membrane transport proteins of Plasmodium falciparum

BACKGROUND: The uptake of nutrients, expulsion of metabolic wastes and maintenance of ion homeostasis by the intraerythrocytic malaria parasite is mediated by membrane transport proteins. Proteins of this type are also implicated in the phenomenon of antimalarial drug resistance. However, the initial annotation of the genome of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum identified only a limited number of transporters, and no channels. In this study we have used a combination of bioinformatic approaches to identify and attribute putative functions to transporters and channels encoded by the malaria parasite, as well as comparing expression patterns for a subset of these. RESULTS: A computer program that searches a genome database on the basis of the hydropathy plots of the corresponding proteins was used to identify more than 100 transport proteins encoded by P. falciparum. These include all the transporters previously annotated as such, as well as a similar number of candidate transport proteins that had escaped detection. Detailed sequence analysis enabled the assignment of putative substrate specificities and/or transport mechanisms to all those putative transport proteins previously without. The newly-identified transport proteins include candidate transporters for a range of organic and inorganic nutrients (including sugars, amino acids, nucleosides and vitamins), and several putative ion channels. The stage-dependent expression of RNAs for 34 candidate transport proteins of particular interest are compared. CONCLUSION: The malaria parasite possesses substantially more membrane transport proteins than was originally thought, and the analyses presented here provide a range of novel insights into the physiology of this important human pathogen

Near-Infrared and Star-forming properties of Local Luminous Infrared Galaxies

We use HST NICMOS continuum and Pa-alpha observations to study the near-infrared and star-formation properties of a representative sample of 30 local (d ~ 35-75Mpc) luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs, infrared 8-1000um luminosities of L_IR=11-11.9[Lsun]). The data provide spatial resolutions of 25-50pc and cover the central ~3.3-7.1kpc regions of these galaxies. About half of the LIRGs show compact (~1-2kpc) Pa-alpha emission with a high surface brightness in the form of nuclear emission, rings, and mini-spirals. The rest of the sample show Pa-alpha emission along the disk and the spiral arms extending over scales of 3-7kpc and larger. About half of the sample contains HII regions with H-alpha luminosities significantly higher than those observed in normal galaxies. There is a linear empirical relationship between the mid-IR 24um and hydrogen recombination (extinction-corrected Pa-alpha) luminosity for these LIRGs, and the HII regions in the central part of M51. This relation holds over more than four decades in luminosity suggesting that the mid-IR emission is a good tracer of the star formation rate (SFR). Analogous to the widely used relation between the SFR and total IR luminosity of Kennicutt (1998), we derive an empirical calibration of the SFR in terms of the monochromatic 24um luminosity that can be used for luminous, dusty galaxies.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. Contact first author for high qualitity version of figure