Algunas consideraciones sobre los alcances y limitaciones metodológicas del cuerpo conceptual marxista para explicar el voto popular en las elecciones presidenciales 2015 en Argentina

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo contribuir a la discusión sobre las limitaciones que se presentan para poder comprender la coyuntura política actual, utilizando como disparador una reflexión hipotética sobre las condiciones de posibilidad del análisis de las últimas elecciones presidenciales argentinas de noviembre de 2015. En particular reflexionaremos a partir de algunos conceptos teóricos desarrollados por el marxismo heterodoxo. La situación sociopolítica actual que advierte el avance del neoliberalismo en Latinoamérica, en cada formación social con su especificidad, impone a la agenda de las ciencias sociales la necesidad de discutir de qué modo y con cuáles herramientas metodológicas podríamos obtener hoy la materia prima que nos permita dar cuenta de la especificidad de las formaciones sociales concretas, de modo tal, de alimentar los conceptos mediante los cuales pretendemos reflexionar sobre ellas. Nuestra reflexión está encuadrada dentro de las categorías del cuerpo conceptual althusseriano como así también de los aportes centrales con los que N. Poulantzas contribuye a la teoría del Estado en el marxismo, sin dejar de lado a intelectuales ineludibles de la región como A. García Linera, en tanto rescata la importancia de Poulantzas para pensar los procesos políticos en las periferias.Fil: Castagnolo, Héctor D.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y SocialesFil: Gelman, Mariela. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociale

THERMAL RADIATION FROM MAGNETIZED NEUTRON STARS: A look at the Surface of a Neutron Star.

Surface thermal emission has been detected by ROSAT from four nearby young neutron stars. Assuming black body emission, the significant pulsations of the observed light curves can be interpreted as due to large surface temperature differences produced by the effect of the crustal magnetic field on the flow of heat from the hot interior toward the cooler surface. However, the energy dependence of the modulation observed in Geminga is incompatible with blackbody emission: this effect will give us a strong constraint on models of the neutron star surface.Comment: 10 pages. tar-compressed and uuencoded postcript file. talk given at the `Jubilee Gamow Seminar', St. Petersburg, Sept. 1994

New near-threshold mesons

We show that under a number of rather plausible assumptions QCD spectrum may contain a number of mesons which have not been predicted or observed. Such states will have the quantum numbers of two existing mesons and masses very close to the dissociation threshold into the two mesons. Moreover, at least one of the two mesonic constituents itself must be very close to its dissociation threshold. In particular, one might expect the existence of loosely bound systems of $D$ and \D; similarly, $K$ and \ff, $\bar{K}$ and \ff, $K$ and $\aa$ and $\bar{K}$ and $\aa$ can be bound. The mechanism for binding in these cases is the S-wave kaon exchange. The nearness of one of the constituents to its decay threshold into a kaon plus a remainder, implies that the range of the kaon exchange force becomes abnormally long--significantly longer than $1/m_K$ which greatly aids the binding.Comment: 5 page

The Probability Density of the Higgs Boson Mass

The LEP Collaborations have reported a small excess of events in their combined Higgs boson analysis at center of mass energies up to about 208 GeV. In this communication, I present the result of a calculation of the probability distribution function of the Higgs boson mass which can be rigorously obtained if the validity of the Standard Model is assumed. It arises from the combination of the most recent set of precision electroweak data and the current results of the Higgs searches at LEP 2.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figure

Incremental Material Flow Analysis with Bayesian Inference

Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is widely used to study the life-cycles of materials from production, through use, to reuse, recycling or disposal, in order to identify environmental impacts and opportunities to address them. However, development of this type of analysis is often constrained by limited data, which may be uncertain, contradictory, missing or over-aggregated. This article proposes a Bayesian approach, in which uncertain knowledge about material flows is described by probability distributions. If little data is initially available, the model predictions will be rather vague. As new data is acquired, it is systematically incorporated to reduce the level of uncertainty. After reviewing previous approaches to uncertainty in MFA, the Bayesian approach is introduced, and a general recipe for its application to Material Flow Analysis is developed. This is applied to map global production of steel, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. As well as aiding the analyst, who can get started in the face of incomplete data, this incremental approach to MFA also supports efforts to improve communication of results by transparently accounting for uncertainty throughout.ngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. Grant Numbers: EP/K039326/1, EP/N02351x/

Modeling GRB 050904: Autopsy of a Massive Stellar Explosion at z=6.29

GRB 050904 at redshift z=6.29, discovered and observed by Swift and with spectroscopic redshift from the Subaru telescope, is the first gamma-ray burst to be identified from beyond the epoch of reionization. Since the progenitors of long gamma-ray bursts have been identified as massive stars, this event offers a unique opportunity to investigate star formation environments at this epoch. Apart from its record redshift, the burst is remarkable in two respects: first, it exhibits fast-evolving X-ray and optical flares that peak simultaneously at t~470 s in the observer frame, and may thus originate in the same emission region; and second, its afterglow exhibits an accelerated decay in the near-infrared (NIR) from t~10^4 s to t~3 10^4 s after the burst, coincident with repeated and energetic X-ray flaring activity. We make a complete analysis of available X-ray, NIR, and radio observations, utilizing afterglow models that incorporate a range of physical effects not previously considered for this or any other GRB afterglow, and quantifying our model uncertainties in detail via Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. In the process, we explore the possibility that the early optical and X-ray flare is due to synchrotron and inverse Compton emission from the reverse shock regions of the outflow. We suggest that the period of accelerated decay in the NIR may be due to suppression of synchrotron radiation by inverse Compton interaction of X-ray flare photons with electrons in the forward shock; a subsequent interval of slow decay would then be due to a progressive decline in this suppression. The range of acceptable models demonstrates that the kinetic energy and circumburst density of GRB 050904 are well above the typical values found for low-redshift GRBs.Comment: 45 pages, 7 figures, and ApJ accepted. Revised version, minor modifications and 1 extra figur

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimised software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organise and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasises hybrid tempered MCMC schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE is implements a full persistence or serialisation system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterised posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU GPL.Comment: Resubmitted version. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU GP