Sulfur dioxide and primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China and India, 1996–2010

China and India are the two largest anthropogenic aerosol generating countries in the world. In this study, we develop a new inventory of sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>) and primary carbonaceous aerosol (i.e., black and organic carbon, BC and OC) emissions from these two countries for the period 1996–2010, using a technology-based methodology. Emissions from major anthropogenic sources and open biomass burning are included, and time-dependent trends in activity rates and emission factors are incorporated in the calculation. Year-specific monthly temporal distributions for major sectors and gridded emissions at a resolution of 0.1°×0.1° distributed by multiple year-by-year spatial proxies are also developed. In China, the interaction between economic development and environmental protection causes large temporal variations in the emission trends. From 1996 to 2000, emissions of all three species showed a decreasing trend (by 9 %–17 %) due to a slowdown in economic growth, a decline in coal use in non-power sectors, and the implementation of air pollution control measures. With the economic boom after 2000, emissions from China changed dramatically. BC and OC emissions increased by 46 % and 33 % to 1.85 Tg and 4.03 Tg in 2010. SO<sub>2</sub> emissions first increased by 61 % to 34.0 Tg in 2006, and then decreased by 9.2 % to 30.8 Tg in 2010 due to the wide application of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) equipment in power plants. Driven by the remarkable energy consumption growth and relatively lax emission controls, emissions from India increased by 70 %, 41 %, and 35 % to 8.81 Tg, 1.02 Tg, and 2.74 Tg in 2010 for SO<sub>2</sub>, BC, and OC, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations are used to quantify the emission uncertainties. The average 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of SO<sub>2</sub>, BC, and OC emissions are estimated to be −16 %–17 %, −43 %–93 %, and −43 %–80 % for China, and −15 %–16 %, −41 %–87 %, and −44 %–92 % for India, respectively. Sulfur content, fuel use, and sulfur retention of hard coal and the actual FGD removal efficiency are the main contributors to the uncertainties of SO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Biofuel combustion related parameters (i.e., technology divisions, fuel use, and emission factor determinants) are the largest source of OC uncertainties, whereas BC emissions are also sensitive to the parameters of coal combustion in the residential and industrial sectors and the coke-making process. Comparing our results with satellite observations, we find that the trends of estimated emissions in both China and India are in good agreement with the trends of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and SO<sub>2</sub> retrievals obtained from different satellites

Emission estimates for air pollution transport models.

The results of studies of energy consumption and emission inventories in Asia are discussed. These data primarily reflect emissions from fuel combustion (both biofuels and fossil fuels) and were collected to determine emissions of acid-deposition precursors (SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}) and greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2} CO, CH{sub 4}, and NMHC) appropriate to RAINS-Asia regions. Current work is focusing on black carbon (soot), volatile organic compounds, and ammonia

Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005

An inventory of anthropogenic primary aerosol emissions in China was developed for 1990–2005 using a technology-based approach. Taking into account changes in the technology penetration within industry sectors and improvements in emission controls driven by stricter emission standards, a dynamic methodology was derived and implemented to estimate inter-annual emission factors. Emission factors of PM<sub>2.5</sub> decreased by 7%–69% from 1990 to 2005 in different industry sectors of China, and emission factors of TSP decreased by 18%–80% as well, with the measures of controlling PM emissions implemented. As a result, emissions of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and TSP in 2005 were 11.0 Tg and 29.7 Tg, respectively, less than what they would have been without the adoption of these measures. Emissions of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>10</sub> and TSP presented similar trends: they increased in the first six years of 1990s and decreased until 2000, then increased again in the following years. Emissions of TSP peaked (35.5 Tg) in 1996, while the peak of PM<sub>10</sub> (18.8 Tg) and PM<sub>2.5</sub> (12.7 Tg) emissions occurred in 2005. Although various emission trends were identified across sectors, the cement industry and biofuel combustion in the residential sector were consistently the largest sources of PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions, accounting for 53%–62% of emissions over the study period. The non-metallic mineral product industry, including the cement, lime and brick industries, accounted for 54%–63% of national TSP emissions. There were no significant trends of BC and OC emissions until 2000, but the increase after 2000 brought the peaks of BC (1.51 Tg) and OC (3.19 Tg) emissions in 2005. Although significant improvements in the estimation of primary aerosols are presented here, there still exist large uncertainties. More accurate and detailed activity information and emission factors based on local tests are essential to further improve emission estimates, this especially being so for the brick and coke industries, as well as for coal-burning stoves and biofuel usage in the residential sector

Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 2: Climate response

We investigate the climate response to changing US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950–2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050). We find that most of the warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period

Improved quantification of Chinese carbon fluxes using CO2/CO correlations in Asian outflow

[1] We use observed CO2:CO correlations in Asian outflow from the TRACE-P aircraft campaign (February–April 2001), together with a three-dimensional global chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM), to constrain specific components of the east Asian CO2 budget including, in particular, Chinese emissions. The CO2/CO emission ratio varies with the source of CO2 (different combustion types versus the terrestrial biosphere) and provides a characteristic signature of source regions and source type. Observed CO2/CO correlation slopes in east Asian boundary layer outflow display distinct regional signatures ranging from 10–20 mol/mol (outflow from northeast China) to 80 mol/mol (over Japan). Model simulations using best a priori estimates of regional CO2 and CO sources from Streets et al. [2003] (anthropogenic), the CASA model (biospheric), and Duncan et al. [2003] (biomass burning) overestimate CO2 concentrations and CO2/CO slopes in the boundary layer outflow. Constraints from the CO2/CO slopes indicate that this must arise from an overestimate of the modeled regional net biospheric CO2 flux. Our corrected best estimate of the net biospheric source of CO2 from China for March–April 2001 is 3200 Gg C/d, which represents a 45 % reduction of the net flux from the CASA model. Previous analyses of the TRACE-P data had found that anthropogenic Chinese C

Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: a global simulation including aerosols and tropospheric ozone

International audienceNitrate aerosols are expected to become more important in the future atmosphere due to the expected increase in nitrate precursor emissions and the decline of ammonium-sulphate aerosols in wide regions of this planet. The GISS climate model is used in this study, including atmospheric gas- and aerosol phase chemistry to investigate current and future (2030, following the SRES A1B emission scenario) atmospheric compositions. A set of sensitivity experiments was carried out to quantify the individual impact of emission- and physical climate change on nitrate aerosol formation. We found that future nitrate aerosol loads depend most strongly on changes that may occur in the ammonia sources. Furthermore, microphysical processes that lead to aerosol mixing play a very important role in sulphate and nitrate aerosol formation. The role of nitrate aerosols as climate change driver is analyzed and set in perspective to other aerosol and ozone forcings under pre-industrial, present day and future conditions. In the near future, year 2030, ammonium nitrate radiative forcing is about ?0.14 W/m² and contributes roughly 10% of the net aerosol and ozone forcing. The present day nitrate and pre-industrial nitrate forcings are ?0.11 and ?0.05 W/m², respectively. The steady increase of nitrate aerosols since industrialization increases its role as a non greenhouse gas forcing agent. However, this impact is still small compared to greenhouse gas forcings, therefore the main role nitrate will play in the future atmosphere is as an air pollutant, with annual mean near surface air concentrations, in the fine particle mode, rising above 3 ?g/m³ in China and therefore reaching pollution levels, like sulphate aerosols

Source characteristics of volatile organic compounds during high ozone episodes in Hong Kong, Southern China

International audienceMeasurements of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) are analyzed to characterize the sources impacting the Hong Kong area. The ratios of different VOC species, m,p-xylenes-to-ethylbenzene, C6H14-to-toluene and p-xylene-to-total xylenes are used for diagnostic analyses. Photochemical age analysis shows that the sources of reactive aromatics, the most important contributor to the photochemical reactivity, do not appear to be preferentially located in downtown Hong Kong. In addition, they do not appear to be dominated by mobile emissions based on the analyses of speciated VOC data from an earlier study, but related to industrial, waterfront, and fuel-storage activities. The ratios, p-xylene-to-total xylenes and dSO2/dNOy, suggest that the anomalously high pollutant concentrations in western Hong Kong in the early morning hours of two episode days appear to have come from transport of urban-type emissions. Comparison of observed ambient ratios of selected VOC and their ratios in the speciated VOC emission inventories for Hong Kong and adjacent Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region give mixed results. The observed ratio C6H14-to-toluene is consistent with the speciated version of the VOC emission inventory. The ratios of selected alkanes are not. This may be caused by the inaccuracies in the inventory and/or the speciation method

Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane

Methane (CH4) emission controls are found to be a powerful lever for reducing both global warming and air pollution via decreases in background tropospheric ozone (O3). Reducing anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 50% nearly halves the incidence of U.S. high-O3 events and lowers global radiative forcing by 0.37 W m−2 (0.30 W m−2 from CH4, 0.07 W m−2 from O3) in a 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry. A 2030 simulation based upon IPCC A1 emissions projections shows a longer and more intense U.S. O3 pollution season despite domestic emission reductions, indicating that intercontinental transport and a rising O3 background should be considered when setting air quality goals

Comparing open and minimally invasive surgical procedures for oesophagectomy in the treatment of cancer: the ROMIO (Randomised Oesophagectomy: Minimally Invasive or Open) feasibility study and pilot trial

Localised oesophageal cancer can be curatively treated with surgery (oesophagectomy) but the procedure is complex with a risk of complications, negative effects on quality of life and a recovery period of 6-9 months. Minimal-access surgery may accelerate recovery.The ROMIO (Randomised Oesophagectomy: Minimally Invasive or Open) study aimed to establish the feasibility of, and methodology for, a definitive trial comparing minimally invasive and open surgery for oesophagectomy. Objectives were to quantify the number of eligible patients in a pilot trial; develop surgical manuals as the basis for quality assurance; standardise pathological processing; establish a method to blind patients to their allocation in the first week post surgery; identify measures of postsurgical outcome of importance to patients and clinicians; and establish the main cost differences between the surgical approaches.Pilot parallel three-arm randomised controlled trial nested within feasibility work.Two UK NHS departments of upper gastrointestinal surgery.Patients aged ≥ 18 years with histopathological evidence of oesophageal or oesophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma, squamous cell cancer or high-grade dysplasia, referred for oesophagectomy or oesophagectomy following neoadjuvant chemo(radio)therapy.Oesophagectomy, with patients randomised to open surgery, a hybrid open chest and minimally invasive abdomen or totally minimally invasive access.The primary outcome measure for the pilot trial was the number of patients recruited per month, with the main trial considered feasible if at least 2.5 patients per month were recruited.During 21 months of recruitment, 263 patients were assessed for eligibility; of these, 135 (51%) were found to be eligible and 104 (77%) agreed to participate, an average of five patients per month. In total, 41 patients were allocated to open surgery, 43 to the hybrid procedure and 20 to totally minimally invasive surgery. Recruitment is continuing, allowing a seamless transition into the definitive trial. Consequently, the database is unlocked at the time of writing and data presented here are for patients recruited by 31 August 2014. Random allocation achieved a good balance between the arms of the study, which, as a high proportion of patients underwent their allocated surgery (69/79, 87%), ensured a fair comparison between the interventions. Dressing patients with large bandages, covering all possible incisions, was successful in keeping patients blind while pain was assessed during the first week post surgery. Postsurgical length of stay and risk of adverse events were within the typical range for this group of patients, with one death occurring within 30 days among 76 patients. There were good completion rates for the assessment of pain at 6 days post surgery (88%) and of the patient-reported outcomes at 6 weeks post randomisation (74%).Rapid recruitment to the pilot trial and the successful refinement of methodology indicated the feasibility of a definitive trial comparing different approaches to oesophagectomy. Although we have shown a full trial of open compared with minimally invasive oesophagectomy to be feasible, this is necessarily based on our findings from the two clinical centres that we could include in this small preliminary study.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN59036820.This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 48. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information