Seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E): results from the Flu Watch cohort study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved with reservations]

Background: There is currently a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The intensity and duration of this first wave in the UK may be dependent on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmits more effectively in the winter than the summer and the UK Government response is partially built upon the assumption that those infected will develop immunity to reinfection in the short term. In this paper we examine evidence for seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronavirus (HCoV) from a prospective cohort study in England. Methods: In this analysis of the Flu Watch cohort, we examine seasonal trends for PCR-confirmed coronavirus infections (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E) in all participants during winter seasons (2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009) and during the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (May-Sep 2009). We also included data from the pandemic and ‘post-pandemic’ winter seasons (2009-2010 and 2010-2011) to identify individuals with two confirmed HCoV infections and examine evidence for immunity against homologous reinfection. Results: We tested 1,104 swabs taken during respiratory illness and detected HCoV in 199 during the first four seasons. The rate of confirmed HCoV infection across all seasons was 390 (95% CI 338-448) per 100,000 person-weeks; highest in the Nov-Mar 2008/9 season at 674 (95%CI 537-835). The highest rate was in February at 759 (95% CI 580-975). Data collected during May-Sep 2009 showed there was small amounts of ongoing transmission, with four cases detected during this period. Eight participants had two confirmed infections, of which none had the same strain twice

Household transmission of seasonal coronavirus infections: Results from the Flu Watch cohort study [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

Background: In the context of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding household transmission of seasonal coronaviruses may inform pandemic control. We aimed to investigate what proportion of seasonal coronavirus transmission occurred within households, measure the risk of transmission in households, and describe the impact of household-related factors of risk of transmission. Methods: Using data from three winter seasons of the UK Flu Watch cohort study, we measured the proportion of symptomatic infections acquired outside and within the home, the household transmission risk and the household secondary attack risk for PCR-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses. We present transmission risk stratified by demographic features of households. Results: We estimated that the proportion of cases acquired outside the home, weighted by age and region, was 90.7% (95% CI 84.6- 94.5, n=173/195) and within the home was 9.3% (5.5-15.4, 22/195). Following a symptomatic coronavirus index case, 14.9% (9.8 - 22.1, 20/134) of households experienced symptomatic transmission to at least one other household member. Onward transmission risk ranged from 11.90% (4.84-26.36, 5/42) to 19.44% (9.21-36.49, 7/36) by strain. The overall household secondary attack risk for symptomatic cases was 8.00% (5.31-11.88, 22/275), ranging across strains from 5.10 (2.11-11.84, 5/98) to 10.14 (4.82- 20.11, 7/69). Median clinical onset serial interval was 7 days (IQR= 6-9.5). Households including older adults, 3+ children, current smokers, contacts with chronic health conditions, and those in relatively deprived areas had the highest transmission risks. Child index cases and male index cases demonstrated the highest transmission risks. Conclusion: Most seasonal coronaviruses appear to be acquired outside the household, with relatively modest risk of onward transmission within households. Transmission risk following an index case appears to vary by demographic household features, with potential overlap between those demonstrating the highest point estimates for seasonal coronavirus transmission risk and COVID-19 susceptibility and poor illness outcomes

Self-Swabbing for Virological Confirmation of Influenza-Like Illness Among an Internet-Based Cohort in the UK During the 2014-2015 Flu Season: Pilot Study

BACKGROUND: Routine influenza surveillance, based on laboratory confirmation of viral infection, often fails to estimate the true burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the community because those with ILI often manage their own symptoms without visiting a health professional. Internet-based surveillance can complement this traditional surveillance by measuring symptoms and health behavior of a population with minimal time delay. Flusurvey, the UK's largest crowd-sourced platform for surveillance of influenza, collects routine data on more than 6000 voluntary participants and offers real-time estimates of ILI circulation. However, one criticism of this method of surveillance is that it is only able to assess ILI, rather than virologically confirmed influenza. OBJECTIVE: We designed a pilot study to see if it was feasible to ask individuals from the Flusurvey platform to perform a self-swabbing task and to assess whether they were able to collect samples with a suitable viral content to detect an influenza virus in the laboratory. METHODS: Virological swabbing kits were sent to pilot study participants, who then monitored their ILI symptoms over the influenza season (2014-2015) through the Flusurvey platform. If they reported ILI, they were asked to undertake self-swabbing and return the swabs to a Public Health England laboratory for multiplex respiratory virus polymerase chain reaction testing. RESULTS: A total of 700 swab kits were distributed at the start of the study; from these, 66 participants met the definition for ILI and were asked to return samples. In all, 51 samples were received in the laboratory, 18 of which tested positive for a viral cause of ILI (35%). CONCLUSIONS: This demonstrated proof of concept that it is possible to apply self-swabbing for virological laboratory testing to an online cohort study. This pilot does not have significant numbers to validate whether Flusurvey surveillance accurately reflects influenza infection in the community, but highlights that the methodology is feasible. Self-swabbing could be expanded to larger online surveillance activities, such as during the initial stages of a pandemic, to understand community transmission or to better assess interseasonal activity

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic groups in England are at increased risk of death from COVID-19: indirect standardisation of NHS mortality data [version 2; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: International and UK data suggest that Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups are at increased risk of infection and death from COVID-19. We aimed to explore the risk of death in minority ethnic groups in England using data reported by NHS England. / Methods: We used NHS data on patients with a positive COVID-19 test who died in hospitals in England published on 28th April, with deaths by ethnicity available from 1st March 2020 up to 5pm on 21 April 2020. We undertook indirect standardisation of these data (using the whole population of England as the reference) to produce ethnic specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) adjusted for age and geographical region. / Results: The largest total number of deaths in minority ethnic groups were Indian (492 deaths) and Black Caribbean (460 deaths) groups. Adjusting for region we found a lower risk of death for White Irish (SMR 0.52; 95%CIs 0.45-0.60) and White British ethnic groups (0.88; 95%CIs 0.86-0.0.89), but increased risk of death for Black African (3.24; 95%CIs 2.90-3.62), Black Caribbean (2.21; 95%CIs 2.02-2.41), Pakistani (3.29; 95%CIs 2.96-3.64), Bangladeshi (2.41; 95%CIs 1.98-2.91) and Indian (1.70; 95%CIs 1.56-1.85) minority ethnic groups. / Conclusion: Our analysis adds to the evidence that BAME people are at increased risk of death from COVID-19 even after adjusting for geographical region. We believe there is an urgent need to take action to reduce the risk of death for BAME groups and better understand why some ethnic groups experience greater risk. Actions that are likely to reduce these inequities include ensuring adequate income protection (so that low paid and zero-hours contract workers can afford to follow social distancing recommendations), reducing occupational risks (such as ensuring adequate personal protective equipment), reducing barriers in accessing healthcare and providing culturally and linguistically appropriate public health communications

Estimates for quality of life loss due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Background In children aged <5 years in whom severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) episodes predominantly occur, there are currently no appropriate standardised instruments to estimate quality of life years (QALY) loss. Objectives We estimated the age‐specific QALY loss due to RSV by developing a regression model which predicts the QALY loss without the use of standardised instruments. Methods We conducted a surveillance study which targeted confirmed RSV episodes in children aged <5 years (confirmed cases) and their household members who experienced symptoms of RSV during the same time (suspected cases). All participants were asked to complete questions regarding their health during the infection, with the suspected cases additionally providing health‐related quality of life (HR‐QoL) loss estimates by completing EQ‐5D‐3L‐Y or EQ‐5D‐3L instruments. We used the responses from the suspected cases to calibrate a regression model which estimates the HR‐QoL and QALY loss due to infection. Findings For confirmed RSV cases in children under 5 years of age who sought health care, our model predicted a QALY loss per RSV episode of 3.823 × 10−3 (95% CI 0.492‐12.766 × 10−3), compared with 3.024 × 10−3 (95% CI 0.329‐10.098 × 10−3) for under fives who did not seek health care. Quality of life years loss per episode was less for older children and adults, estimated as 1.950 × 10−3 (0.185‐9.578 × 10−3) and 1.543 × 10−3 (0.136‐6.406 × 10−3) for those who seek or do not seek health care, respectively. Conclusion Evaluations of potential RSV vaccination programmes should consider their impact across the whole population, not just young child children

Artifact and Artifact Categorization: Comparing Humans and Capuchin Monkeys

International audienceWe aim to show that far-related primates like humans and the capuchin monkeys show interesting correspondences in terms of artifact characterization and categorization. We investigate this issue by using a philosophically-inspired definition of physical artifact which, developed for human artifacts, turns out to be applicable for cross-species comparison. In this approach an artifact is created when an entity is intentionally selected and some capacities attributed to it (often characterizing a purpose). Behavioral studies suggest that this notion of artifact is not specific to the human kind. On the basis of the results of a series of field observations and experiments on wild capuchin monkeys that routinely use stone hammers and anvils, we show that the notions of intentional selection and attributed capacity appear to be at play in capuchins as well. The study also suggests that functional criteria and contextualization play a fundamental role in terms of artifact recognition and categorization in nonhuman primates

Conformism in the food processing techniques of white-faced capuchin monkeys (Cebus capucinus)

Researchers of “culture” have long been interested in the role of social learning in establishing patterns of behavioral variation in wild animals, but very few studies examine this issue using a developmental approach. This 7-year study examines the acquisition of techniques used to process Luehea candida fruits in a wild population of white-faced capuchin monkeys, Cebus capucinus, residing in and near Lomas Barbudal Biological Reserve, Costa Rica. The two techniques for extracting seeds (pounding or scrubbing) were approximately equal in efficiency, and subjects experimented with both techniques before settling on one technique—typically the one they most frequently observed. In a sample of 106 subjects that had already settled on a preferred technique, the females adopted the maternal technique significantly more often than expected by chance, but the males did not. Using a longitudinal approach, I examined the acquisition of Luehea processing techniques during the first 5 years of life. Regression analysis revealed that the technique most frequently observed (measured as proportion of Luehea processing bouts observed that used pounding as opposed to scrubbing) significantly predicted the technique adopted by female observers, particularly in the second year of life; the amount of impact of the observed technique on the practiced technique was somewhat less significant for male observers. These results held true for (a) observations of maternal technique only, (b) observations of technique used by all individuals other than the mother, and (c) observations of maternal and non-maternal techniques combined

Quantifying humpback whale song sequences to understand the dynamics of song exchange at the ocean basin scale

Humpback whales have a continually evolving vocal sexual display, or "song," that appears to undergo both evolutionary and "revolutionary" change. All males within a population adhere to the current content and arrangement of the song. Populations within an ocean basin share similarities in their songs; this sharing is complex as multiple variations of the song (song types) may be present within a region at any one time. To quantitatively investigate the similarity of song types, songs were compared at both the individual singer and population level using the Levenshtein distance technique and cluster analysis. The highly stereotyped sequences of themes from the songs of 211 individuals from populations within the western and central South Pacific region from 1998 through 2008 were grouped together based on the percentage of song similarity, and compared to qualitatively assigned song types. The analysis produced clusters of highly similar songs that agreed with previous qualitative assignments. Each cluster contained songs from multiple populations and years, confirming the eastward spread of song types and their progressive evolution through the study region. Quantifying song similarity and exchange will assist in understanding broader song dynamics and contribute to the use of vocal displays as population identifiers

Household overcrowding and risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study in England and Wales

Background: Household overcrowding is associated with increased risk of infectious diseases across contexts and countries. Limited data exist linking household overcrowding and risk of COVID-19. We used data collected from the Virus Watch cohort to examine the association between overcrowded households and SARS-CoV-2. // Methods: The Virus Watch study is a household community cohort of acute respiratory infections in England and Wales. We calculated overcrowding using the measure of persons per room for each household. We considered two primary outcomes: PCR-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests and laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models that accounted for household structure to estimate the association between household overcrowding and SARS-CoV-2 infection. // Results: 26,367 participants were included in our analyses. The proportion of participants with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result was highest in the overcrowded group (9.0%; 99/1,100) and lowest in the under-occupied group (4.2%; 980/23,196). In a mixed-effects logistic regression model, we found strong evidence of an increased odds of a positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 antigen result (odds ratio 2.45; 95% CI:1.43–4.19; p-value=0.001) and increased odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody result in individuals living in overcrowded houses (3.32; 95% CI:1.54–7.15; p-value<0.001) compared with people living in under-occupied houses. // Conclusion: Public health interventions to prevent and stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 should consider the risk of infection for people living in overcrowded households and pay greater attention to reducing household transmission