5,382 research outputs found
Quantum phenomenology of conjunction fallacy
A quantum-like description of human decision process is developed, and a
heuristic argument supporting the theory as sound phenomenology is given. It is
shown to be capable of quantitatively explaining the conjunction fallacy in the
same footing as the violation of sure-thing principle.Comment: LaTeX 8 pages, 2 figure
Are Individuals Fickle-Minded?
Game theory has been used to model large-scale social events — such as constitutional law, democratic stability, standard setting, gender roles, social movements, communication, markets, the selection of officials by means of elections, coalition formation, resource allocation, distribution of goods, and war — as the aggregate result of individual choices in interdependent decision-making. Game theory in this way assumes methodological individualism. The widespread observation that game theory predictions do not in general match observation has led to many attempts to repair game theory by creating behavioral game theory, which adds corrective terms to the game theoretic predictions in the hope of making predictions that better match observations. But for game theory to be useful in making predictions, we must be able to generalize from an individual’s behavior in one situation to that individual’s behavior in very closely similar situations. In other words, behavioral game theory needs individuals to be reasonably consistent in action if the theory is to have predictive power. We argue on the basis of experimental evidence that the assumption of such consistency is unwarranted. More realistic models of individual agents must be developed that acknowledge the variance in behavior for a given individual
Reasons and Means to Model Preferences as Incomplete
Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often
assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary
relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We
review some of the reasons that have been put forward to justify more complex
modeling, and review some of the techniques that have been proposed to obtain
models of such preferences
Experimental Evidence for Quantum Structure in Cognition
We proof a theorem that shows that a collection of experimental data of
membership weights of items with respect to a pair of concepts and its
conjunction cannot be modeled within a classical measure theoretic weight
structure in case the experimental data contain the effect called
overextension. Since the effect of overextension, analogue to the well-known
guppy effect for concept combinations, is abundant in all experiments testing
weights of items with respect to pairs of concepts and their conjunctions, our
theorem constitutes a no-go theorem for classical measure structure for common
data of membership weights of items with respect to concepts and their
combinations. We put forward a simple geometric criterion that reveals the non
classicality of the membership weight structure and use experimentally measured
membership weights estimated by subjects in experiments to illustrate our
geometrical criterion. The violation of the classical weight structure is
similar to the violation of the well-known Bell inequalities studied in quantum
mechanics, and hence suggests that the quantum formalism and hence the modeling
by quantum membership weights can accomplish what classical membership weights
cannot do.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure
Classical Logical versus Quantum Conceptual Thought: Examples in Economics, Decision theory and Concept Theory
Inspired by a quantum mechanical formalism to model concepts and their
disjunctions and conjunctions, we put forward in this paper a specific
hypothesis. Namely that within human thought two superposed layers can be
distinguished: (i) a layer given form by an underlying classical deterministic
process, incorporating essentially logical thought and its indeterministic
version modeled by classical probability theory; (ii) a layer given form under
influence of the totality of the surrounding conceptual landscape, where the
different concepts figure as individual entities rather than (logical)
combinations of others, with measurable quantities such as 'typicality',
'membership', 'representativeness', 'similarity', 'applicability', 'preference'
or 'utility' carrying the influences. We call the process in this second layer
'quantum conceptual thought', which is indeterministic in essence, and contains
holistic aspects, but is equally well, although very differently, organized
than logical thought. A substantial part of the 'quantum conceptual thought
process' can be modeled by quantum mechanical probabilistic and mathematical
structures. We consider examples of three specific domains of research where
the effects of the presence of quantum conceptual thought and its deviations
from classical logical thought have been noticed and studied, i.e. economics,
decision theory, and concept theories and which provide experimental evidence
for our hypothesis.Comment: 14 page
Phase control and measurement in digital microscopy
The ongoing merger of the digital and optical components of the modern microscope is creating opportunities for new measurement techniques, along with new challenges for optical modelling. This thesis investigates several such opportunities and challenges which are particularly relevant to biomedical imaging. Fourier optics is used throughout the thesis as the underlying conceptual model, with a particular emphasis on three--dimensional Fourier optics. A new challenge for optical modelling provided by digital microscopy is the relaxation of traditional symmetry constraints on optical design. An extension of optical transfer function theory to deal with arbitrary lens pupil functions is presented in this thesis. This is used to chart the 3D vectorial structure of the spatial frequency spectrum of the intensity in the focal region of a high aperture lens when illuminated by linearly polarised beam. Wavefront coding has been used successfully in paraxial imaging systems to extend the depth of field. This is achieved by controlling the pupil phase with a cubic phase mask, and thereby balancing optical behaviour with digital processing. In this thesis I present a high aperture vectorial model for focusing with a cubic phase mask, and compare it with results calculated using the paraxial approximation. The effect of a refractive index change is also explored. High aperture measurements of the point spread function are reported, along with experimental confirmation of high aperture extended depth of field imaging of a biological specimen. Differential interference contrast is a popular method for imaging phase changes in otherwise transparent biological specimens. In this thesis I report on a new isotropic algorithm for retrieving the phase from differential interference contrast images of the phase gradient, using phase shifting, two directions of shear, and non--iterative Fourier phase integration incorporating a modified spiral phase transform. This method does not assume that the specimen has a constant amplitude. A simulation is presented which demonstrates good agreement between the retrieved phase and the phase of the simulated object, with excellent immunity to imaging noise
A Test of Rank-Dependent Utility in the Context of Ambiguity
Experimental investigations of non-expected utility have primarily concentrated on decision under risk (probability triangles). The literature suggests, however, that ambiguity is one of the main causes for deviations from expected utility (EU). This article investigates the descriptive performance of rank-dependent utility (RDU) in the context of choice under ambiguity. We use the axiomatic difference between RDU and EU to critically test RDU against EU. Surprisingly, the RDU model does not provide any descriptive improvement over EU. Our data suggest other framing factors that do provide descriptive improvements over EU
Investing in Prevention or Paying for Recovery - Attitudes to Cyber Risk
The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Broadly speaking an individual can invest time and effort to avoid becoming victim to a cyber attack and/or they can invest resource in recovering from any attack. We introduce a new game called the pre-vention and recovery game to study this trade-off. We report results from the experimental lab that allow us to categorize different approaches to risk taking. We show that many individuals appear relatively risk loving in that they invest in recovery rather than prevention. We find little difference in behavior between a gain and loss framing
A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics
The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical
economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put
forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that
real-life situations can violate Savage's Sure-Thing Principle and hence also
expected utility. We analyze how this violation is connected to the presence of
the 'disjunction effect' of decision theory and use our earlier study of this
effect in concept theory to put forward an explanation of the violation of
Savage's Sure-Thing Principle, namely the presence of 'quantum conceptual
thought' next to 'classical logical thought' within a double layer structure of
human thought during the decision process. Quantum conceptual thought can be
modeled mathematically by the quantum mechanical formalism, which we illustrate
by modeling the Hawaii problem situation, a well-known example of the
disjunction effect, and we show how the dynamics in the Hawaii problem
situation is generated by the whole conceptual landscape surrounding the
decision situation.Comment: 9 pages, no figure
Quantum Experimental Data in Psychology and Economics
We prove a theorem which shows that a collection of experimental data of
probabilistic weights related to decisions with respect to situations and their
disjunction cannot be modeled within a classical probabilistic weight structure
in case the experimental data contain the effect referred to as the
'disjunction effect' in psychology. We identify different experimental
situations in psychology, more specifically in concept theory and in decision
theory, and in economics (namely situations where Savage's Sure-Thing Principle
is violated) where the disjunction effect appears and we point out the common
nature of the effect. We analyze how our theorem constitutes a no-go theorem
for classical probabilistic weight structures for common experimental data when
the disjunction effect is affecting the values of these data. We put forward a
simple geometric criterion that reveals the non classicality of the considered
probabilistic weights and we illustrate our geometrical criterion by means of
experimentally measured membership weights of items with respect to pairs of
concepts and their disjunctions. The violation of the classical probabilistic
weight structure is very analogous to the violation of the well-known Bell
inequalities studied in quantum mechanics. The no-go theorem we prove in the
present article with respect to the collection of experimental data we consider
has a status analogous to the well known no-go theorems for hidden variable
theories in quantum mechanics with respect to experimental data obtained in
quantum laboratories. For this reason our analysis puts forward a strong
argument in favor of the validity of using a quantum formalism for modeling the
considered psychological experimental data as considered in this paper.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure
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