Importance Sampling: Intrinsic Dimension and Computational Cost

The basic idea of importance sampling is to use independent samples from a proposal measure in order to approximate expectations with respect to a target measure. It is key to understand how many samples are required in order to guarantee accurate approximations. Intuitively, some notion of distance between the target and the proposal should determine the computational cost of the method. A major challenge is to quantify this distance in terms of parameters or statistics that are pertinent for the practitioner. The subject has attracted substantial interest from within a variety of communities. The objective of this paper is to overview and unify the resulting literature by creating an overarching framework. A general theory is presented, with a focus on the use of importance sampling in Bayesian inverse problems and filtering.Comment: Statistical Scienc

Complex dynamics of elementary cellular automata emerging from chaotic rules

We show techniques of analyzing complex dynamics of cellular automata (CA) with chaotic behaviour. CA are well known computational substrates for studying emergent collective behaviour, complexity, randomness and interaction between order and chaotic systems. A number of attempts have been made to classify CA functions on their space-time dynamics and to predict behaviour of any given function. Examples include mechanical computation, \lambda{} and Z-parameters, mean field theory, differential equations and number conserving features. We aim to classify CA based on their behaviour when they act in a historical mode, i.e. as CA with memory. We demonstrate that cell-state transition rules enriched with memory quickly transform a chaotic system converging to a complex global behaviour from almost any initial condition. Thus just in few steps we can select chaotic rules without exhaustive computational experiments or recurring to additional parameters. We provide analysis of well-known chaotic functions in one-dimensional CA, and decompose dynamics of the automata using majority memory exploring glider dynamics and reactions

Controlling Unpredictability with Observations in the Partially Observed Lorenz '96 Model

In the context of filtering chaotic dynamical systems it is well-known that partial observations, if sufficiently informative, can be used to control the inherent uncertainty due to chaos. The purpose of this paper is to investigate, both theoretically and numerically, conditions on the observations of chaotic systems under which they can be accurately filtered. In particular, we highlight the advantage of adaptive observation operators over fixed ones. The Lorenz '96 model is used to exemplify our findings. We consider discrete-time and continuous-time observations in our theoretical developments. We prove that, for fixed observation operator, the 3DVAR filter can recover the system state within a neighbourhood determined by the size of the observational noise. It is required that a sufficiently large proportion of the state vector is observed, and an explicit form for such sufficient fixed observation operator is given. Numerical experiments, where the data is incorporated by use of the 3DVAR and extended Kalman filters, suggest that less informative fixed operators than given by our theory can still lead to accurate signal reconstruction. Adaptive observation operators are then studied numerically; we show that, for carefully chosen adaptive observation operators, the proportion of the state vector that needs to be observed is drastically smaller than with a fixed observation operator. Indeed, we show that the number of state coordinates that need to be observed may even be significantly smaller than the total number of positive Lyapunov exponents of the underlying system

Varying efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in two similar trials: public health implications.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Intermittent preventive treatment (IPTi) with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in infants resulted in different estimates of clinical malaria protection in two trials that used the same protocol in Ifakara, Tanzania, and Manhiça, Mozambique. Understanding the reasons for the discrepant results will help to elucidate the action mechanism of this intervention, which is essential for rational policy formulation.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud A comparative analysis of two IPTi trials that used the same study design, follow-up, intervention, procedures and assessment of outcomes, in Tanzania and Mozambique was undertaken. Children were randomised to receive either SP or placebo administered 3 times alongside routine vaccinations delivered through the Expanded Program on Immunisation (EPI). Characteristics of the two areas and efficacy on clinical malaria after each dose were compared.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud The most relevant difference was in ITN's use ; 68% in Ifakara and zero in Manhiça. In Ifakara, IPTi was associated with a 53% (95% CI 14.0; 74.1) reduction in the risk of clinical malaria between the second and the third dose; during the same period there was no significant effect in Manhiça. Similarly, protection against malaria episodes was maintained in Ifakara during 6 months after dose 3, but no effect of IPTi was observed in Manhiça.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud The high ITN coverage in Ifakara is the most likely explanation for the difference in IPTi efficacy on clinical malaria. Combination of IPTi and ITNs may be the most cost-effective tool for malaria control currently available, and needs to be explored in current and future studies.\ud \ud TRIAL REGISTRATION\ud \ud Manhiça study registration number: NCT00209795Ifakara study registration number: NCT88523834

Absolute magnitudes and phase coefficients of trans-Neptunian objects

Accurate measurements of diameters of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are extremely difficult to obtain. Thermal modeling can provide good results, but accurate absolute magnitudes are needed to constrain the thermal models and derive diameters and geometric albedos. The absolute magnitude, H, is defined as the magnitude of the object reduced to unit helio-and geocentric distances and a zero solar phase angle and is determined using phase curves. Phase coefficients can also be obtained from phase curves. These are related to surface properties, but only few are known. Aims. Our objective is to measure accurate V-band absolute magnitudes and phase coefficients for a sample of TNOs, many of which have been observed and modeled within the program >TNOs are cool>, which is one of the Herschel Space Observatory key projects. Methods. We observed 56 objects using the V and R filters. These data, along with those available in the literature, were used to obtain phase curves and measure V-band absolute magnitudes and phase coefficients by assuming a linear trend of the phase curves and considering a magnitude variability that is due to the rotational light-curve. Results. We obtained 237 new magnitudes for the 56 objects, six of which were without previously reported measurements. Including the data from the literature, we report a total of 110 absolute magnitudes with their respective phase coefficients. The average value of H is 6.39, bracketed by a minimum of 14.60 and a maximum of-1.12. For the phase coefficients we report a median value of 0.10 mag per degree and a very large dispersion, ranging from-0.88 up to 1.35 mag per degree. © 2016 ESO.J.L.O. acknowledges support from the Spanish Mineco grant AYA-2011-30106-CO2-O1, from FEDER funds and from the Proyecto de Excelencia de la Junta de Andalucia, J.A. 2012-FQM1776. R.D. acknowledges the support of MINECO for his Ramon y Cajal ContractPeer Reviewe

Visible spectroscopy of the new ESO Large Program on trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs: final results

A second large programme (LP) for the physical studies of TNOs and Centaurs, started at ESO Cerro Paranal on October 2006 to obtain high-quality data, has recently been concluded. In this paper we present the spectra of these pristine bodies obtained in the visible range during the last two semesters of the LP. We investigate the spectral behaviour of the TNOs and Centaurs observed, and we analyse the spectral slopes distribution of the full data set coming from this LP and from the literature. We computed the spectral slope for each observed object, and searched for possible weak absorption features. A statistical analysis was performed on a total sample of 73 TNOs and Centaurs to look for possible correlations between dynamical classes, orbital parameters, and spectral gradient. We obtained new spectra for 28 bodies, 15 of which were observed for the first time. All the new presented spectra are featureless, including 2003 AZ84, for which a faint and broad absorption band possibly attributed to hydrated silicates on its surface has been reported. The data confirm a wide variety of spectral behaviours, with neutral--grey to very red gradients. An analysis of the spectral slopes available from this LP and in the literature for a total sample of 73 Centaurs and TNOs shows that there is a lack of very red objects in the classical population. We present the results of the statistical analysis of the spectral slope distribution versus orbital parameters. In particular, we confirm a strong anticorrelation between spectral slope and orbital inclination for the classical population. A strong correlation is also found between the spectral slope and orbital eccentricity for resonant TNOs, with objects having higher spectral slope values with increasing eccentricity.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

Cellular automaton supercolliders

Gliders in one-dimensional cellular automata are compact groups of non-quiescent and non-ether patterns (ether represents a periodic background) translating along automaton lattice. They are cellular-automaton analogous of localizations or quasi-local collective excitations travelling in a spatially extended non-linear medium. They can be considered as binary strings or symbols travelling along a one-dimensional ring, interacting with each other and changing their states, or symbolic values, as a result of interactions. We analyse what types of interaction occur between gliders travelling on a cellular automaton `cyclotron' and build a catalog of the most common reactions. We demonstrate that collisions between gliders emulate the basic types of interaction that occur between localizations in non-linear media: fusion, elastic collision, and soliton-like collision. Computational outcomes of a swarm of gliders circling on a one-dimensional torus are analysed via implementation of cyclic tag systems

Water-Gas Shift Reaction on K/Cu(111) and Cu/K/TiO2(110) Surfaces: Alkali Promotion of Water Dissociation and Production of H2

The addition of potassium atoms to Cu(111) and Cu/TiO2(110) surfaces substantially enhances the rate for water dissociation and the production of hydrogen through the water-gas shift reaction (WGS, CO + H2O → H2 + CO2). In the range of temperatures investigated, 550-625 K, Cu/K/TiO2(110) exhibits a WGS activity substantially higher than those of K/Cu(111), Cu(111), and Cu/ZnO(0001̄) systems used to model an industrial Cu/ZnO catalyst. The apparent activation energy for the WGS drops from 18 Kcal/mol on Cu(111) to 12 Kcal/mol on K/Cu(111) and 6 Kcal/mol on Cu/K/TiO2(110). The results of density functional calculations show that K adatoms favor the thermochemistry for water dissociation on Cu(111) and Cu/TiO2(110) with the cleavage of an O-H bond occurring at room temperature. Furthermore, at the Cu/K/TiO2 interface, there is a synergy, and this system has a unique ability to dissociate the water molecule and catalyze hydrogen production through the WGS process. Therefore, when optimizing a regular catalyst, it is essential to consider mainly the effects of an alkali promoter on the metal-oxide interface.US Department of Energy DE-SC0012704Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CTQ2015-64669-

Risk factors for presentation to hospital with severe anaemia in Tanzanian children: a case-control study.

In malaria endemic areas anaemia is a usually silent condition that nevertheless places a considerable burden on health services. Cases of severe anaemia often require hospitalization and blood transfusions. The objective of this study was to assess risk factors for admission with anaemia to facilitate the design of anaemia control programmes. We conducted a prospective case-control study of children aged 2-59 months admitted to a district hospital in southern Tanzania. There were 216 cases of severe anaemia [packed cell volume (PCV) < 25%] and 234 age-matched controls (PCV > or = 25%). Most cases [55.6% (n = 120)] were < 1 year of age. Anaemia was significantly associated with the educational level of parents, type of accommodation, health-seeking behaviour, the child's nutritional status and recent and current medical history. Of these, the single most important factor was Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia [OR 4.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.9-6.5, P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that increased recent health expenditure [OR 2.2 (95% CI 1.3-3.9), P = 0.005], malnutrition [OR 2.4 (95%CI 1.3-4.3), P < 0.001], living > 10 km from the hospital [OR 3.0 (95% CI 1.9-4.9), P < 0.001], a history of previous blood transfusion [OR 3.8 (95% CI 1.7-9.1), P < 0.001] and P. falciparum parasitaemia [OR 9.5 (95% CI 4.3-21.3), P < 0.001] were independently related to risk of being admitted with anaemia. These findings are considered in terms of the pathophysiological pathway leading to anaemia. The concentration of anaemia in infants and problems of access to health services and adequate case management underline the need for targeted preventive strategies for anaemia control