Evaluating the economic return to public wind energy research and development in the United States

The U.S. government has invested in wind energy research since 1976. Building on a literature that has sought to develop and apply methods for retrospective benefit-to-cost evaluation for federal research programs, this study provides a quantitative analysis of the economic social return on these historical wind energy research investments. Importantly, the study applies multiple innovative methods and varies important input parameters to test the sensitivity of the results. The analysis considers public wind research expenditures and U.S. wind power deployment over the period 1976–2017, while also accounting for the full useful lifetime of wind projects built over this period. Assessed benefits include energy cost savings and health benefits due to reductions in air pollution. Overall, this analysis demonstrates sizable, positive economic returns on past wind energy research. Under the core analysis and with a 3% real discount rate, the net benefits from historical federal wind energy research investments are found to equal $31.4 billion, leading to an 18 to 1 benefit-to-cost ratio and an internal rate of return of 15.4%. Avoided carbon dioxide emissions are not valued in monetary terms, but are estimated at 1510 million metric tons. Alternative methods and input assumptions yield benefit-to-cost ratios that fall within a relatively narrow range from 7-to-1 to 21-to-1, reinforcing in broad terms the general finding of a sizable positive return on investment. Unsurprisingly, results are sensitive to the chosen discount rate, with higher discount rates leading to lower benefit-to-cost ratios, and lower discount rates yielding higher benefit-to-cost ratios

Analysis of curtailment at The Geysers geothermal Field, California

Geothermal energy has traditionally been viewed as a baseload energy source, but the rapid growth of intermittent renewable energy has led to a need for more flexibility in power generation to avoid mandatory curtailment imposed by grid operators. This study of curtailment at The Geysers provides insights into the magnitude, duration, frequency, temporal and spatial distribution, and potential causes of curtailment events between 2013 and 2018. Annual levels of curtailment range during this period from 9 to 47 GW h, representing 0.15 to 0.81 % of the net generation. Most curtailments occurred at the power plants connected to a lower capacity transmission line and may result from transmission constriction. There is a clear link between negative pricing and economic curtailment, especially when solar production is higher. Economic curtailment events tend to be only a few hours and vary in magnitude up to almost 300 MW, whereas transmission-related curtailment events can be up to several weeks in duration. It is likely that curtailment of geothermal power will be an increasing concern, and could be mitigated by flexible generation strategies and increases in energy storage. It is critical to know the nature of curtailment events so that flexible generation options can be assessed properly

How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States?

Wind-plant performance declines with age, and the rate of decline varies between regions. The rate of performance decline is important when determining wind-plant financial viability and expected lifetime generation. We determine the rate of age-related performance decline in the United States wind fleet by evaluating generation records from 917 plants. We find the rate of performance decline to be 0.53%/year for older vintages of plants and 0.17%/year for newer vintages of plants on an energy basis for the first 10 years of operation, which is on the lower end of prior estimates in Europe. Unique to the United States, we find a significant drop in performance by 3.6% after 10 years, as plants lose eligibility for the production tax credit. Certain plant characteristics, such as the ratio of blade length to nameplate capacity, influence the rate of performance decline. These results indicate that the performance decline rate can be partially managed and influenced by policy

Identifying susceptibility genes by using joint tests of association and linkage and accounting for epistasis

Simulated Genetic Analysis Workshop14 data were analyzed by jointly testing linkage and association and by accounting for epistasis using a candidate gene approach. Our group was unblinded to the "answers." The 48 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the six disease loci were analyzed in addition to five SNPs from each of two non-disease-related loci. Affected sib-parent data was extracted from the first 10 replicates for populations Aipotu, Kaarangar, and Danacaa, and analyzed separately for each replicate. We developed a likelihood for testing association and/or linkage using data from affected sib pairs and their parents. Identical-by-descent (IBD) allele sharing between sibs was explicitly modeled using a conditional logistic regression approach and incorporating a covariate that represents expected IBD allele sharing given the genotypes of the sibs and their parents. Interactions were accounted for by performing likelihood ratio tests in stages determined by the highest order interaction term in the model. In the first stage, main effects were tested independently, and in subsequent stages, multilocus effects were tested conditional on significant marginal effects. A reduction in the number of tests performed was achieved by prescreening gene combinations with a goodness-of-fit chi square statistic that depended on mating-type frequencies. SNP-specific joint effects of linkage and association were identified for loci D1, D2, D3, and D4 in multiple replicates. The strongest effect was for SNP B03T3056, which had a median p-value of 1.98 × 10(-34). No two- or three-locus effects were found in more than one replicate

Is Your Neighborhood Designed to Support Physical Activity? A Brief Streetscape Audit Tool.

INTRODUCTION:Macro level built environment factors (eg, street connectivity, walkability) are correlated with physical activity. Less studied but more modifiable microscale elements of the environment (eg, crosswalks) may also affect physical activity, but short audit measures of microscale elements are needed to promote wider use. This study evaluated the relation of a 15-item neighborhood environment audit tool with a full version of the tool to assess neighborhood design on physical activity in 4 age groups. METHODS:From the 120-item Microscale Audit of Pedestrian Streetscapes (MAPS) measure of street design, sidewalks, and street crossings, we developed the 15-item version (MAPS-Mini) on the basis of associations with physical activity and attribute modifiability. As a sample of a likely walking route, MAPS-Mini was conducted on a 0.25-mile route from participant residences toward the nearest nonresidential destination for children (n = 758), adolescents (n = 897), younger adults (n = 1,655), and older adults (n = 367). Active transportation and leisure physical activity were measured with age-appropriate surveys, and accelerometers provided objective physical activity measures. Mixed-model regressions were conducted for each MAPS item and a total environment score, adjusted for demographics, participant clustering, and macrolevel walkability. RESULTS:Total scores of MAPS-Mini and the 120-item MAPS correlated at r = .85. Total microscale environment scores were significantly related to active transportation in all age groups. Items related to active transport in 3 age groups were presence of sidewalks, curb cuts, street lights, benches, and buffer between street and sidewalk. The total score was related to leisure physical activity and accelerometer measures only in children. CONCLUSION:The MAPS-Mini environment measure is short enough to be practical for use by community groups and planning agencies and is a valid substitute for the full version that is 8 times longer

Impact of Wind, Solar, and Other Factors on Wholesale Power Prices: An Historical Analysis—2008 through 2017

Wholesale power markets have evolved. Some of the most prominent changes over the last decade in the United States include growth in wind and solar, a reduction in the price of natural gas, weakened load growth, and an increase in the retirement of thermal power plants. Here we empirically assess the degree to which wind and solar—among other factors—have influenced wholesale electricity prices. We show that wind and solar have contributed to reductions in overall average annual wholesale electricity prices since 2008, but that natural gas prices have had the largest impact. More notable is that expansion of variable renewable energy has led to significant changes in locational, time of day, and seasonal pricing patterns in some regions. These altered pricing patterns reflect a fundamental shift, and hold important implications for the grid-system value of wind and solar, and for other electric-sector planning and operating decisions

Mapping the genetic architecture of gene expression in human liver

Genetic variants that are associated with common human diseases do not lead directly to disease, but instead act on intermediate, molecular phenotypes that in turn induce changes in higher-order disease traits. Therefore, identifying the molecular phenotypes that vary in response to changes in DNA and that also associate with changes in disease traits has the potential to provide the functional information required to not only identify and validate the susceptibility genes that are directly affected by changes in DNA, but also to understand the molecular networks in which such genes operate and how changes in these networks lead to changes in disease traits. Toward that end, we profiled more than 39,000 transcripts and we genotyped 782,476 unique single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in more than 400 human liver samples to characterize the genetic architecture of gene expression in the human liver, a metabolically active tissue that is important in a number of common human diseases, including obesity, diabetes, and atherosclerosis. This genome-wide association study of gene expression resulted in the detection of more than 6,000 associations between SNP genotypes and liver gene expression traits, where many of the corresponding genes identified have already been implicated in a number of human diseases. The utility of these data for elucidating the causes of common human diseases is demonstrated by integrating them with genotypic and expression data from other human and mouse populations. This provides much-needed functional support for the candidate susceptibility genes being identified at a growing number of genetic loci that have been identified as key drivers of disease from genome-wide association studies of disease. By using an integrative genomics approach, we highlight how the gene RPS26 and not ERBB3 is supported by our data as the most likely susceptibility gene for a novel type 1 diabetes locus recently identified in a large-scale, genome-wide association study. We also identify SORT1 and CELSR2 as candidate susceptibility genes for a locus recently associated with coronary artery disease and plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in the process. © 2008 Schadt et al

Do self-reported intentions predict clinicians behaviour: a systematic review.

Background: Implementation research is the scientific study of methods to promote the systematic uptake of clinical research findings into routine clinical practice. Several interventions have been shown to be effective in changing health care professionals' behaviour, but heterogeneity within interventions, targeted behaviours, and study settings make generalisation difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the 'active ingredients' in professional behaviour change strategies. Theories of human behaviour that feature an individual's "intention" to do something as the most immediate predictor of their behaviour have proved to be useful in non-clinical populations. As clinical practice is a form of human behaviour such theories may offer a basis for developing a scientific rationale for the choice of intervention to use in the implementation of new practice. The aim of this review was to explore the relationship between intention and behaviour in clinicians and how this compares to the intention-behaviour relationship in studies of non-clinicians. Methods: We searched: PsycINFO, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Science/Social science citation index, Current contents (social & behavioural med/clinical med), ISI conference proceedings, and Index to Theses. The reference lists of all included papers were checked manually. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they had: examined a clinical behaviour within a clinical context, included measures of both intention and behaviour, measured behaviour after intention, and explored this relationship quantitatively. All titles and abstracts retrieved by electronic searching were screened independently by two reviewers, with disagreements resolved by discussion. Discussion: Ten studies were found that examined the relationship between intention and clinical behaviours in 1623 health professionals. The proportion of variance in behaviour explained by intention was of a similar magnitude to that found in the literature relating to non-health professionals. This was more consistently the case for studies in which intention-behaviour correspondence was good and behaviour was self-reported. Though firm conclusions are limited by a smaller literature, our findings are consistent with that of the non-health professional literature. This review, viewed in the context of the larger populations of studies, provides encouragement for the contention that there is a predictable relationship between the intentions of a health professional and their subsequent behaviour. However, there remain significant methodological challenges

Immunogenic cell death pathway polymorphisms for predicting oxaliplatin efficacy in metastatic colorectal cancer

Background Immunogenic cell death (ICD) is a tumor cell death involving both innate and adaptive immune responses. Given published findings that oxaliplatin, but not irinotecan, drives ICD, we investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the ICD pathway are associated with the efficacy of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Methods Two randomized clinical trials data were analyzed: discovery cohort, FOLFOX/bevacizumab arm (MAVERICC); validation cohort, FOLFOXIRI/bevacizumab arm (TRIBE); and two control cohorts, FOLFIRI/bevacizumab arms (both trials). Genomic DNA extracted from blood samples was genotyped. Ten SNPs in the ICD pathway were tested for associations with clinical outcomes. Results In total, 648 patients were included. In the discovery cohort, three SNPs were significantly associated with clinical outcomes in univariate analysis: CALR rs1010222 with progression-free survival (G/G vs any A, HR=0.61, 95% CI 0.43-0.88), ANXA1 rs1050305 with overall survival (OS) (A/A vs any G, HR=1.87, 95% CI 1.04-3.35), and LRP1 rs1799986 with OS (C/C vs any T, HR=1.69, 95% CI 1.07-2.70). Multivariate analysis confirmed the trend, but statistical significance was not reached. In the validation cohort, ANXA1 rs1050305, and LRP1 rs1799986 were validated to have the significant associations with clinical outcome. No significant associations of these SNPs were observed in the two control cohorts. Treatment-by-SNP interaction test confirmed the predictive values. Conclusions The predictive utility of ICD-related SNPs for the efficacy of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy was demonstrated, warranting further validation studies to be translated into personalized treatment strategies using conventional cytotoxic agents in mCRC