What do we need for robust and quantitative health impact assessment?

Health impact assessment (HIA) aims to make the health consequences of decisions explicit. Decision-makers need to know that the conclusions of HIA are robust. Quantified estimates of potential health impacts may be more influential but there are a number of concerns. First, not everything that can be quantified is important. Second, not everything that is being quantified at present should be, if this cannot be done robustly. Finally, not everything that is important can be quantified; rigorous qualitative HIA will still be needed for a thorough assessment. This paper presents the first published attempt to provide practical guidance on what is required to perform robust, quantitative HIA. Initial steps include profiling the affected populations, obtaining evidence from for postulated impacts, and determining how differences in subgoups' exposures and suscepibilities affect impacts. Using epidemiological evidence for HIA is different from carrying out a new study. Key steps in quantifying impacts are mapping the causal pathway, selecting appropriate outcome measures and selecting or developing a statistical model. Evidence from different sources is needed. For many health impacts, evidence of an effect may be scarce and estimates of the size and nature of the relationship may be inadequate. Assumptions and uncertainties must therefore be explicit. Modelled data can sometimes be tested against empirical data but sensitivity analyses are crucial. When scientific problems occur, discontinuing the study is not an option, as HIA is usually intended to inform real decisions. Both qualitative and quantitative elements of HIA must be performed robustly to be of value

Organic nitrogen in aerosols and precipitation at Barbados and Miami: Implications regarding sources, transport and deposition to the western subtropical North Atlantic

The deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) species is believed to have a significant impact on the oligotrophic North Atlantic, but the magnitude of ecological effects remains uncertain because the deposition of water soluble organic N (WSON) is poorly quantified. Here we present measurements of water soluble inorganic N (WSIN) and WSON in aerosol and rain at two subtropical North Atlantic time series sites: Barbados and Miami. WSON total deposition rates ranged from 17.9 mmol m−2 yr−1 to 49.6 mmol m−2 yr−1, contributing on average only 6–14% of total N deposition, less than half the poorly constrained global average which is typically cited as 30%. On an event basis, biomass burning and dust events yielded the largest concentrations of WSON. However, biomass burning was relatively infrequent and highly variable in composition, and much of the organic N associated with dust appeared to be externally adsorbed from pollution sources. Conversely, in Miami pollution made relatively small contributions of WSON on an event basis, but impacts were relatively frequent, making pollution one of the largest sources of WSON during the year. The largest contributor to WSON was volatile basic organic N (VBON) species, which were present at concentrations 1–2 times higher than particulate WSON. Despite VBON inputs, samples associated with pollution-source trajectories yielded much more inorganic N than WSON. Consequently, we would expect that in the future as anthropogenic N emissions increase, inorganic nitrogen will remain the dominant form of N that is deposited to the western North Atlantic

Variable cavity volume tooling for high-performance resin infusion moulding

This article describes the research carried out by Warwick under the BAE Systems/EPSRC programme ‘Flapless Aerial Vehicles Integrated Interdisciplinary Research – FLAVIIR’. Warwick's aim in FLAVIIR was to develop low-cost innovative tooling technologies to enable the affordable manufacture of complex composite aerospace structures and to help realize the aim of the Grand Challenge of maintenance-free, low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle manufacture. This article focuses on the evaluation of a novel tooling process (variable cavity tooling) to enable the complete infusion of resin throughout non-crimp fabric within a mould cavity under low (0.1 MPa) injection pressure. The contribution of the primary processing parameters to the mechanical properties of a carbon composite component (bulk-head lug section), and the interactions between parameters, was determined. The initial mould gap (di) was identified as having the most significant effect on all measured mechanical properties, but complex interactions between di, n (number of fabric layers), and vc (mould closure rate) were observed. The process capability was low due to the manual processing, but was improved through process optimization, and delivered properties comparable to high-pressure resin transfer moulding

Atypical chemokine receptor ACKR2 controls branching morphogenesis in the developing mammary gland

Macrophages are important regulators of branching morphogenesis during development and postnatally in the mammary gland. Regulation of macrophage dynamics during these processes can therefore have a profound impact on development. We demonstrate here that the developing mammary gland expresses high levels of inflammatory CC-chemokines, which are essential in vivo regulators of macrophage migration. We further demonstrate that the atypical chemokine receptor ACKR2, which scavenges inflammatory CC-chemokines, is differentially expressed during mammary gland development. We have previously shown that ACKR2 regulates macrophage dynamics during lymphatic vessel development. Here, we extend these observations to reveal a novel role for ACKR2 in regulating the postnatal development of the mammary gland. Specifically, we show that Ackr2−/− mice display precocious mammary gland development. This is associated with increased macrophage recruitment to the developing gland and increased density of the ductal epithelial network. These data demonstrate that ACKR2 is an important regulator of branching morphogenesis in diverse biological contexts and provide the first evidence of a role for chemokines and their receptors in postnatal development processes

Using metal ratios to detect emissions from municipal waste incinerators in ambient air pollution data, atmospheric environment

This study aimed to fingerprint emissions from six municipal waste incinerators (MWIs) and then test if these fingerprint ratios could be found in ambient air samples. Stack emissions tests from MWIs comprised As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, V and Hg. Those pairs of metals showing good correlation (R &gt; 0.75) were taken as tracers of MWI emissions and ratios calculated: Cu/Pb; Cd/Pb; Cd/Cu and Cr/Pb. Emissions ratios from MWIs differed significantly from those in ambient rural locations and those close to traffic. In order to identify MWI emissions in ambient air two analysis tests were carried out. The first, aimed to explore if MWI emissions dominate the ambient concentrations. The mean ambient ratio of each of the four metal ratios were calculated for six ambient sampling sites within 10 km from a MWI under stable meteorological conditions when the wind blew from the direction of the incinerator. Under these meteorological conditions ambient Cd/Pb was within the range of MWI emissions at one location, two monitoring sites measured mean Cr/Pb ratios representative of the MWI emissions and the four sites measured values of Cu/Pb within the range of MWI emissions. No ambient measurements had mean Cd/Cu ratios within the MWI values. Even though MWI was not the main source determining the ambient metal ratios, possible occasional plume grounding might have occurred. The second test then examined possible plume grounding by identifying the periods when all metal ratios differed from rural and traffic values at the same time and were consistent with MWI emissions. Metal ratios consistent with MWI emissions were found in ambient air within 10 km of one MWI for about 0.2% of study period. Emissions consistent with a second MWI were similarly detected at two ambient measurement sites about 0.1% and 0.02% of the time. Where plume grounding was detected, the maximum annual mean particulate matter (PM) from the MWI was estimated to be 0.03 μg m-3 to 0.12 μg m-3; 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than background ambient PM10 concentrations. Ambient concentrations of Cr increased by 1.6-3.0 times when MWI emissions were detected. From our analysis we found no evidence of incinerator emissions in ambient metal concentrations around four UK MWIs. The six UK MWIs studied contributed little to ambient PM10 concentrations.</p

Cross-sectional associations between air pollution and chronic bronchitis: an ESCAPE meta-analysis across five cohorts

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess associations of outdoor air pollution on prevalence of chronic bronchitis symptoms in adults in five cohort studies (Asthma-E3N, ECRHS, NSHD, SALIA, SAPALDIA) participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) project. METHODS: Annual average particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5, PMabsorbance, PMcoarse), NO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and road traffic measures modelled from ESCAPE measurement campaigns 2008-2011 were assigned to home address at most recent assessments (1998-2011). Symptoms examined were chronic bronchitis (cough and phlegm for &ge;3 months of the year for &ge;2 years), chronic cough (with/without phlegm) and chronic phlegm (with/without cough). Cohort-specific cross-sectional multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted using common confounder sets (age, sex, smoking, interview season, education), followed by meta-analysis. RESULTS: 15 279 and 10 537 participants respectively were included in the main NO2 and PM analyses at assessments in 1998-2011. Overall, there were no statistically significant associations with any air pollutant or traffic exposure. Sensitivity analyses including in asthmatics only, females only or using back-extrapolated NO2 and PM10 for assessments in 1985-2002 (ECRHS, NSHD, SALIA, SAPALDIA) did not alter conclusions. In never-smokers, all associations were positive, but reached statistical significance only for chronic phlegm with PMcoarse OR 1.31 (1.05 to 1.64) per 5 &micro;g/m(3) increase and PM10 with similar effect size. Sensitivity analyses of older cohorts showed increased risk of chronic cough with PM2.5abs (black carbon) exposures. CONCLUSIONS: Results do not show consistent associations between chronic bronchitis symptoms and current traffic-related air pollution in adult European populations

Common polygenic risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with cognitive ability in the general population

Acknowledgements Generation Scotland has received core funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates CZD/16/6 and the Scottish Funding Council HR03006. We are grateful to all the families who took part, the general practitioners and the Scottish School of Primary Care for their help in recruiting them and the whole Generation Scotland team, which includes interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists, health-care assistants and nurses. We acknowledge with gratitude the financial support received for this work from the Dr Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation. For the Lothian Birth Cohorts (LBC1921 and LBC1936), we thank Paul Redmond for database management assistance; Alan Gow, Martha Whiteman, Alison Pattie, Michelle Taylor, Janie Corley, Caroline Brett and Caroline Cameron for data collection and data entry; nurses and staff at the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, where blood extraction and genotyping was performed; staff at the Lothian Health Board; and the staff at the SCRE Centre, University of Glasgow. The research was supported by a program grant from Age UK (Disconnected Mind) and by grants from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). The work was undertaken by The University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) and BBSRC is gratefully acknowledged. DJM is an NRS Career Research Fellow funded by the CSO. BATS were funded by the Australian Research Council (A79600334, A79906588, A79801419, DP0212016, DP0664638, and DP1093900) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (389875) Australia. MKL is supported by a Perpetual Foundation Wilson Fellowship. SEM is supported by a Future Fellowship (FT110100548) from the Australian Research Council. GWM is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia, Fellowship (619667). We thank the twins and siblings for their participation, Marlene Grace, Ann Eldridge and Natalie Garden for cognitive assessments, Kerrie McAloney, Daniel Park, David Smyth and Harry Beeby for research support, Anjali Henders and staff in the Molecular Epidemiology Laboratory for DNA sample processing and preparation and Scott Gordon for quality control and management of the genotypes. This work is supported by a Stragetic Award from the Wellcome Trust, reference 104036/Z/14/Z.Peer reviewedPublisher PD