The demography of Papua and New Guinea's indigenous population

This study aims to make a significant contribution to knowledge about the demography of Papua-New Guinea's indigenous population. It presents information that was collected over the last half century or so by a great variety of people, and tries to reach reasonably firm conclusions on the population's vital rates, age structure and future growth by combining the most satisfactory elements to a plausible pattern. But the data are fragmentary and defective, and the best elements in them cannot always be identified by analysis. Sometimes, a fairly subjective judgement as to what might have gone wrong during their collection is necessary to explain obvious distortions. The interpretation of incomplete sets of data of doubtful accuracy is thus an important facet of the work undertaken here and model distributions are used in the process. Ideally, model and reference distributions should serve to 'discipline' reported data (Brass 1969). In the present case there often is, unfortunately, little information that can be disciplined and models are mainly used to bridge gaps that would otherwise put an end to the analysis. But as they are chosen as judiciously as possible and by taking all sources into account, this is probably the best alternative

Prehistory of Transit Searches

Nowadays the more powerful method to detect extrasolar planets is the transit method. We review the planet transits which were anticipated, searched, and the first ones which were observed all through history. Indeed transits of planets in front of their star were first investigated and studied in the solar system. The first observations of sunspots were sometimes mistaken for transits of unknown planets. The first scientific observation and study of a transit in the solar system was the observation of Mercury transit by Pierre Gassendi in 1631. Because observations of Venus transits could give a way to determine the distance Sun-Earth, transits of Venus were overwhelmingly observed. Some objects which actually do not exist were searched by their hypothetical transits on the Sun, as some examples a Venus satellite and an infra-mercurial planet. We evoke the possibly first use of the hypothesis of an exoplanet transit to explain some periodic variations of the luminosity of a star, namely the star Algol, during the eighteen century. Then we review the predictions of detection of exoplanets by their transits, those predictions being sometimes ancient, and made by astronomers as well as popular science writers. However, these very interesting predictions were never published in peer-reviewed journals specialized in astronomical discoveries and results. A possible transit of the planet beta Pic b was observed in 1981. Shall we see another transit expected for the same planet during 2018? Today, some studies of transits which are connected to hypothetical extraterrestrial civilisations are published in astronomical refereed journals. Some studies which would be classified not long ago as science fiction are now considered as scientific ones.Comment: Submiited to Handbook of Exoplanets (Springer

Risk of urothelial bladder cancer in Lynch syndrome is increased, in particular among MSH2 mutation carriers

Contains fulltext : 89346.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Colorectal, endometrial and upper urinary tract tumours are characteristic for Lynch syndrome (hereditary non-polyposis colon carcinoma, HNPCC). The aim of the present study was to establish whether carriers of mutations in mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2 or MSH6 are at increased risk of urinary bladder cancer. METHODS: Carriers and first degree relatives of 95 families with a germline mutation in the MLH1 (n=26), MSH2 (n=43), or MSH6 (n=26) gene were systematically questioned about the occurrence of carcinoma. The cumulative risk of cancer occurring before the age of 70 years (CR70) was compared to the CR70 of the general Dutch population. Microsatellite instability (MSI) testing and/or immunohistochemistry (IHC) for mismatch repair proteins was performed on bladder tumour tissue. RESULTS: Bladder cancer was diagnosed in 21 patients (90% men) from 19 Lynch syndrome families (2 MLH1, 15 MSH2, and 4 MSH6). CR70 for bladder cancer was 7.5% (95% CI 3.1% to 11.9%) for men and 1.0% (95% CI 0% to 2.4%) for women, resulting in relative risks for mutation carriers and first degree relatives of 4.2 (95% CI 2.2 to 7.2) for men and 2.2 (95% CI 0.3 to 8.0) for women. Men carrying an MSH2 mutation and their first degree relatives were at highest risks: CR70 for bladder and upper urinary tract cancer being 12.3% (95% CI 4.3% to 20.3%) and 5.9% (95% CI 0.7% to 11.1%). Bladder cancer tissue was MSI positive in 6/7 tumours and loss of IHC staining was found in 14/17 tumours, indicating Lynch syndrome aetiology. CONCLUSION: Patients with Lynch syndrome carrying an MSH2 mutation are at increased risk of urinary tract cancer including bladder cancer. In these cases surveillance should be considered.01 juli 201

Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure

Objective: We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Results: After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R2=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R2=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. Conclusions: AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Fertility, Living Arrangements, Care and Mobility

There are four main interconnecting themes around which the contributions in this book are based. This introductory chapter aims to establish the broad context for the chapters that follow by discussing each of the themes. It does so by setting these themes within the overarching demographic challenge of the twenty-first century – demographic ageing. Each chapter is introduced in the context of the specific theme to which it primarily relates and there is a summary of the data sets used by the contributors to illustrate the wide range of cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysed

Funnel plots, performance variation and the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project 2003–2004

BACKGROUND: Clinical governance requires health care professionals to improve standards of care and has resulted in comparison of clinical performance data. The Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (a UK cardiology dataset) tabulates its performance. However funnel plots are the display method of choice for institutional comparison. We aimed to demonstrate that funnel plots may be derived from MINAP data and allow more meaningful interpretation of data. METHODS: We examined the attainment of National Service Framework standards for all hospitals (n = 230) and all patients (n = 99,133) in the MINAP database between 1(st )April 2003 and 31(st )March 2004. We generated funnel plots (with control limits at 3 sigma) of Door to Needle and Call to Needle thrombolysis times, and the use of aspirin, beta-blockers and statins post myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Only 87,427 patients fulfilled criteria for analysis of the use of secondary prevention drugs and 15,111 patients for analysis by Door to Needle and Call to Needle times (163 hospitals achieved the standards for Door to Needle times and 215 were within or above their control limits). One hundred and sixteen hospitals fell outside the 'within 25%' and 'more than 25%' standards for Call to Needle times, but 28 were below the lower control limits. Sixteen hospitals failed to reach the standards for aspirin usage post AMI and 24 remained below the lower control limits. Thirty hospitals were below the lower CL for beta-blocker usage and 49 outside the standard. Statin use was comparable. CONCLUSION: Funnel plots may be applied to a complex dataset and allow visual comparison of data derived from multiple health-care units. Variation is readily identified permitting units to appraise their practices so that effective quality improvement may take place

The impact of alcohol consumption on patterns of union formation in Russia 1998–2010: An assessment using longitudinal data

Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1998–2010, we investigated the extent to which patterns of alcohol consumption in Russia are associated with the subsequent likelihood of entry into cohabitation and marriage. Using discrete-time event history analysis we estimated for 16–50 year olds the extent to which the probabilities of entry into the two types of union were affected by the amount of alcohol drunk and the pattern of drinking, adjusted to allow for social and demographic factors including income, employment, and health. The results show that individuals who did not drink alcohol were less likely to embark on either cohabitation or marriage, that frequent consumption of alcohol was associated with a greater chance of entering unmarried cohabitation than of entering into a marriage, and that heavy drinkers were less likely to convert their relationship from cohabitation to marriage

Italy’s Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories: Le cheminement de l’Italie vers les très basses fécondités: Adéquation des théories économique et de seconde transition démographique

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered

Modulation of the Epithelial-Immune Cell Crosstalk and Related Galectin Secretion by DP3-5 Galacto-Oligosaccharides and β-3′galactosyllactose

Prebiotic galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) were shown to support mucosal immune development by enhancing regulatory-type Th1 immune polarization induced by synthetic CpG oligode-oxynucleotides (TLR9 agonist mimicking a bacterial DNA trigger). Epithelial-derived galectin-9 was associated with these immunomodulatory effects. We aimed to identify the most active fractions within GOS based on the degree of polymerization (DP), and to study the immunomodulatory ca-pacities of DP3-sized β-3′galactosyllactose (β-3′GL) using a transwell co-culture model of human intestinal epithelial cells (IEC) and activated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). IEC were apically exposed to different DP fractions of GOS or β-3′GL in the presence of CpG, and basolater-ally co-cultured with αCD3/CD28-activated PBMC, washed, and incubated in fresh medium for IEC-derived galectin analysis. Only DP3-5 in the presence of CpG enhanced galectin-9 secretion. DP3-sized β-3′GL promoted a regulatory-type Th1 response by increasing IFNγ and IL-10 or galec-tin-9 concentrations as compared to CpG alone. In addition, IEC-derived galectin-3,-4, and-9 secretion was increased by β-3′GL when combined with CpG. Therefore, the GOS DP3-5 and most effectively DP3-sized β-3′GL supported the immunomodulatory properties induced by CpG by enhancing epithelial-derived galectin secretion, which, in turn, could support mucosal immunity