Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil-fuel and biomass-burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of brown carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of 2. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with the largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 Wm[superscript −2] (0.08 Wm[superscript −2] from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 Wm[superscript −2] from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 Wm[superscript −2], with an additional +0.11 Wm[superscript −2] of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of −80%/+140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2–1.0 Wm[superscript −2] range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 Wm[superscript −2] DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime (including the effect on the vertical profile) and the incorrect attribution of BrC absorption to BC.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program (Grant RD-83503301

Cloud condensation nuclei as a modulator of ice processes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds

We propose that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are important for modulating ice formation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, through modification of the droplet size distribution. Aircraft observations from the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) study in northern Alaska in April 2008 allow for identification and characterization of both aerosol and trace gas pollutants, which are then compared with cloud microphysical properties. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the concentration of precipitating ice particles (>400 μm) is correlated with the concentration of large droplets (>30 μm). We are further able to link the observed microphysical conditions to aerosol pollution, originating mainly from long range transport of biomass burning emissions. The case studies demonstrate that polluted mixed-phase clouds have narrower droplet size distributions and contain 1–2 orders of magnitude fewer precipitating ice particles than clean clouds at the same temperature. This suggests an aerosol indirect effect leading to greater cloud lifetime, greater cloud emissivity, and reduced precipitation. This result is opposite to the glaciation indirect effect, whereby polluted clouds are expected to precipitate more readily due to an increase in the concentration of particles acting as ice nuclei

Source contributions to Northern Hemisphere CO and black carbon during spring and summer 2008 from POLARCAT and START08/preHIPPO observations and MOZART-4

International audienceAnthropogenic pollution and wildfires are main producers of carbon monoxide (CO) and black carbon (BC) in the Northern Hemisphere. High concentrations of these compounds are transported into the Arctic troposphere, influencing the ecosystem in high northern latitudes and the global climate. The global chemical transport model MOZART-4 is used to quantify the seasonal evolution of the contribution of CO and BC from different source regions in spring and summer 2008 by tagging their emissions. Aircraft observations from the POLARCAT experiments, in particular NASA ARCTAS, NOAA ARCPAC, POLARCAT-France, DLR GRACE and YAK-AEROSIB, as well as the NSF START08/preHIPPO experiments during Spring-Summer 2008 are combined to quantify the representation of simulated tracer characteristics in anthropogenic and fire plumes. In general, the model reproduces CO and BC well. Based on aircraft measurements and FLEXPART back-trajectories, the altitude contribution of emissions coming from different source regions is well captured in the model. Uncertainties of the MOZART-4 model are identified by comparing the data with model results on the flight tracks and using MOPITT satellite observations. Anthropogenic emissions are underestimated by about 10% in high northern latitudes in spring, and shortcomings exist in simulating fire plumes. The remote impact of East-Siberian fire emissions is underestimated for spring, whereas the impact of Southeast Asian fire emissions to mid-latitude CO values is overestimated by the model. In summer, mid-latitude CO values agree well between model and observations, whereas summer high latitude East-Siberian fire emissions in the model are overestimated by 20% in comparison to observations in the region. On the other hand, CO concentrations are underestimated by about 30% over Alaska and Canada at altitudes above 4 km. BC values are overestimated by the model at altitudes above 4 km in summer. Based on MOZART-4, with tagged CO and BC tracers, anthropogenic emissions of Asia, Europe and the US have the largest contribution to the CO and BC in mid- and high latitudes in spring and summer. Southeast Asian, Chinese and Indian fires have a large impact on CO pollution in spring in low latitudes with a maximum between 20° and 30°, whereas Siberian fires contribute largely to the pollution in high latitudes, up to 10% in spring and up to 30% in summer. The largest contributions to BC values in high latitudes are from anthropogenic emissions (about 70%). CO and BC have larger mass loadings in April than in July, as a result of photochemistry and dynamics

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease. an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention

Characteristics, sources, and transport of aerosols measured in spring 2008 during the aerosol, radiation, and cloud processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) Project

We present an overview of the background, scientific goals, and execution of the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project of April 2008. We then summarize airborne measurements, made in the troposphere of the Alaskan Arctic, of aerosol particle size distributions, composition, and optical properties and discuss the sources and transport of the aerosols. The aerosol data were grouped into four categories based on gas-phase composition. First, the background troposphere contained a relatively diffuse, sulfate-rich aerosol extending from the top of the sea-ice inversion layer to 7.4 km altitude. Second, a region of depleted (relative to the background) aerosol was present within the surface inversion layer over sea-ice. Third, layers of dense, organic-rich smoke from open biomass fires in southern Russia and southeastern Siberia were frequently encountered at all altitudes from the top of the inversion layer to 7.1 km. Finally, some aerosol layers were dominated by components originating from fossil fuel combustion. &lt;br&gt;&lt;/br&gt; Of these four categories measured during ARCPAC, the diffuse background aerosol was most similar to the average springtime aerosol properties observed at a long-term monitoring site at Barrow, Alaska. The biomass burning (BB) and fossil fuel layers were present above the sea-ice inversion layer and did not reach the sea-ice surface during the course of the ARCPAC measurements. The BB aerosol layers were highly scattering and were moderately hygroscopic. On average, the layers produced a noontime net heating of ~0.1 K day&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; between 3 and 7 km and a slight cooling at the surface. The ratios of particle mass to carbon monoxide (CO) in the BB plumes, which had been transported over distances &gt;5000 km, were comparable to the high end of literature values derived from previous measurements in wildfire smoke. These ratios suggest minimal precipitation scavenging and removal of the BB particles between the time they were emitted and the time they were observed in dense layers above the sea-ice inversion layer

MADE-in : a new aerosol microphysics submodel for global simulation of insoluble particles and their mixing state

Black carbon (BC) and mineral dust are among the most abundant insoluble aerosol components in the atmosphere. When released, most BC and dust particles are externally mixed with other aerosol species. Through coagulation with particles containing soluble material and condensation of gases, the externally mixed particles may obtain a liquid coating and be transferred into an internal mixture. The mixing state of BC and dust aerosol particles influences their radiative and hygroscopic properties, as well as their ability of forming ice crystals. We introduce the new aerosol microphysics submodel MADE-in, implemented within the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry global model (EMAC). MADE-in is able to track mass and number concentrations of BC and dust particles in their different mixing states, as well as particles free of BC and dust. MADE-in describes these three classes of particles through a superposition of seven log-normally distributed modes, and predicts the evolution of their size distribution and chemical composition. Six out of the seven modes are mutually interacting, allowing for the transfer of mass and number among them. Separate modes for the different mixing states of BC and dust particles in EMAC/MADEin allow for explicit simulations of the relevant aging processes, i.e. condensation, coagulation and cloud processing. EMAC/MADE-in has been evaluated with surface and airborne measurements and mostly performs well both in the planetary boundary layer and in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere

Influenza A Viruses from Wild Birds in Guatemala Belong to the North American Lineage

The role wild bird species play in the transmission and ecology of avian influenza virus (AIV) is well established; however, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the worldwide distribution of these viruses, specifically about the prevalence and/or significance of AIV in Central and South America. As part of an assessment of the ecology of AIV in Guatemala, we conducted active surveillance in wild birds on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Cloacal and tracheal swab samples taken from resident and migratory wild birds were collected from February 2007 to January 2010.1913 samples were collected and virus was detected by real time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) in 28 swab samples from ducks (Anas discors). Virus isolation was attempted for these positive samples, and 15 isolates were obtained from the migratory duck species Blue-winged teal. The subtypes identified included H7N9, H11N2, H3N8, H5N3, H8N4, and H5N4. Phylogenetic analysis of the viral sequences revealed that AIV isolates are highly similar to viruses from the North American lineage suggesting that bird migration dictates the ecology of these viruses in the Guatemalan bird population

Renormalized Coupled Cluster Approaches in the Cluster-in-Molecule Framework: Predicting Vertical Electron Binding Energies of the Anionic Water Clusters (H2O)n–

Anionic water clusters are generally considered to be extremely challenging to model using fragmentation approaches due to the diffuse nature of the excess electron distribution. The local correlation coupled cluster (CC) framework cluster-in-molecule (CIM) approach combined with the completely renormalized CR-CC(2,3) method [abbreviated CIM/CR-CC(2,3)] is shown to be a viable alternative for computing the vertical electron binding energies (VEBE). CIM/CR-CC(2,3) with the threshold parameter ζ set to 0.001, as a trade-off between accuracy and computational cost, demonstrates the reliability of predicting the VEBE, with an average percentage error of ∼15% compared to the full ab initio calculation at the same level of theory. The errors are predominantly from the electron correlation energy. The CIM/CR-CC(2,3) approach provides the ease of a black-box type calculation with few threshold parameters to manipulate. The cluster sizes that can be studied by high-level ab initio methods are significantly increased in comparison with full CC calculations. Therefore, the VEBE computed by the CIM/CR-CC(2,3) method can be used as benchmarks for testing model potential approaches in small-to-intermediate-sized water clusters