Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective: Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD. Design: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. Subjects: 19 329 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population. Measurements: Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Results: For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (greater than or equal to30 kg m−2) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37–2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44–2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35–2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28–2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men greater than or equal to102 cm, women greater than or equal to88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (greater than or equal to1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04–1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19–2.01). Among women with a high WHR (greater than or equal to0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26–1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36–4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31–2.38). Conclusions: In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences

The UK Pharmacy Care Plan service: Description, recruitment and initial views on a new community pharmacy intervention

Introduction: The UK government advocates person-centred healthcare which is ideal for supporting patients to make appropriate lifestyle choices and to address non-adherence. The Community Pharmacy Future group, a collaboration between community pharmacy companies and independents in the UK, introduced a person-centred service for patients with multiple long-term conditions in 50 pharmacies in Northern England. Objective: Describe the initial findings from the set up and delivery of a novel community pharmacy-based person-centred service. Method: Patients over fifty years of age prescribed more than one medicine including at least one for cardiovascular disease or diabetes were enrolled. Medication review and person-centred consultation resulted in agreed health goals and steps towards achieving them. Data were collated and analysed to determine appropriateness of patient recruitment process and quality of outcome data collection. A focus group of seven pharmacists was used to ascertain initial views on the service. Results: Within 3 months of service initiation, 683 patients had baseline clinical data recorded, of which 86.9% were overweight or obese, 53.7% had hypertension and 80.8% had high cardiovascular risk. 544 (77.2%) patients set at least one goal during the first consultation with 120 (22.1%) setting multiple goals. A majority of patients identified their goals as improvement in condition, activity or quality of life. Pharmacists could see the potential patient benefit and the extended role opportunities the service provided. Allowing patients to set their own goals occasionally identified gaps to be addressed in pharmacist knowledge. Conclusion: Pharmacists successfully recruited a large number of patients who were appropriate for such a service. Patients were willing to identify goals with the pharmacist, the majority of which, if met, may result in improvements in quality of life. While challenges in delivery were acknowledged, allowing patients to identify their own personalised goals was seen as a positive approach to providing patient services

Childhood socioeconomic position, adult socioeconomic position and social mobility in relation to markers of adiposity in early adulthood: evidence of differential effects by gender in the 1978/79 Ribeirao Preto cohort study

Background: Longitudinal studies drawn from high-income countries demonstrate long-term associations of early childhood socioeconomic deprivation with increased adiposity in adulthood. However, there are very few data from resource-poor countries where there are reasons to anticipate different gradients. Accordingly, we sought to characterise the nature of the socioeconomic status (SES)-adiposity association in Brazil. / Methods: We use data from the Ribeirao Preto Cohort Study in Brazil in which 9067 newborns were recruited via their mothers in 1978/79 and one-in-three followed up in 2002/04 (23–25years). SES, based on family income (salaries, interest on savings, pensions and so on), was assessed at birth and early adulthood, and three different adiposity measures (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)) ascertained at follow-up. The association between childhood SES, adult SES and social mobility (defined as four permutations of SES in childhood and adulthood: low–low, low–high, high–low, high–high), and the adiposity measures was examined using linear regression. / Results: There was evidence that the association between SES and the three markers of adiposity was modified by gender in both adulthood (P<0.02 for all outcomes) and childhood SES (P<0.02 for WC and WHR). Thus, in an unadjusted model, linear regression analyses showed that higher childhood SES was associated with lower adiposity in women (coefficient (95% confidence intervals) BMI: −1.49 (−2.29,−0.69); WC: −3.85 (−5.73,−1.97); WHR: −0.03 (−0.04,−0.02)). However, in men, higher childhood SES was related to higher adiposity (BMI: 1.03 (0.28,−1.78); WC: 3.15 (1.20, 5.09); WHR: 0.009 (−0.001, 0.019)) although statistical significance was not seen in all analyses. There was a suggestion that adult SES (but not adult health behaviours or birthweight) accounted for these relationships in women only. Upward mobility was associated with protection against greater adiposity in women but not men. / Conclusion: In the present study, in men there was some evidence that both higher childhood and adulthood SES was related to a higher adiposity risk, while the reverse gradient was apparent in women

Antidepressant activity of anti-cytokine treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials of chronic inflammatory conditions.

Inflammatory cytokines are commonly elevated in acute depression and are associated with resistance to monoaminergic treatment. To examine the potential role of cytokines in the pathogenesis and treatment of depression, we carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of antidepressant activity of anti-cytokine treatment using clinical trials of chronic inflammatory conditions where depressive symptoms were measured as a secondary outcome. Systematic search of the PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Cochrane databases, search of reference lists and conference abstracts, followed by study selection process yielded 20 clinical trials. Random effect meta-analysis of seven randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving 2370 participants showed a significant antidepressant effect of anti-cytokine treatment compared with placebo (standardised mean difference (SMD)=0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22-0.59). Anti-tumour necrosis factor drugs were most commonly studied (five RCTs); SMD=0.33 (95% CI; 0.06-0.60). Separate meta-analyses of two RCTs of adjunctive treatment with anti-cytokine therapy and eight non-randomised and/or non-placebo studies yielded similar small-to-medium effect estimates favouring anti-cytokine therapy; SMD=0.19 (95% CI, 0.00-0.37) and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.34-0.67), respectively. Adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab and tocilizumab all showed statistically significant improvements in depressive symptoms. Meta-regression exploring predictors of response found that the antidepressant effect was associated with baseline symptom severity (P=0.018) but not with improvement in primary physical illness, sex, age or study duration. The findings indicate a potentially causal role for cytokines in depression and that cytokine modulators may be novel drugs for depression in chronically inflamed subjects. The field now requires RCTs of cytokine modulators using depression as the primary outcome in subjects with high inflammation who are free of other physical illnesses.GMK is supported by a Clinical Lecturer Starter Grant from the Academy of Medical Sciences, UK (grant no. 80354) and a Gosling Fellowship from the Royal College of Psychiatrists, UK (2015). GMK also received funding support from the Wellcome Trust 094790/Z/10/Z). PBJ acknowledges grant sup port from the Wellcome Trust (095844/Z/11/Z & 088869/Z/09/Z) and NIHR (RP-PG-0606-1335, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and CLAHRC East of England). RD has received grants from the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke of the National Institutes of Health (grants R01 NS073939; R01 NS074999).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/mp.2016.16

Interaction between Education and Household Wealth on the Risk of Obesity in Women in Egypt

Obesity is a growing problem in lower income countries particularly among women. There are few studies exploring individual socioeconomic status indicators in depth. This study examines the interaction of education and wealth in relation to obesity, hypothesising that education protects against the obesogenic effect of wealth

Association of adiposity and mental health functioning across the lifespan:Findings from understanding society (The UK household longitudinal study)

Background: Evidence on the adiposity-mental health associations is mixed, with studies finding positive, negative or no associations, and less is known about how these associations may vary by age. Objective: To examine the association of adiposity -body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage body fat (BF%)- with mental health functioning across the adult lifespan. Methods: Data from 11,257 participants (aged 18+) of Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study (waves 2 and 3, 5/2010-7/2013) were employed. Regressions of mental health functioning, assessed by the Mental Component Summary (MCS-12) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), on adiposity measures (continuous or dichotomous indicators) were estimated adjusted for covariates. Polynomial age-adiposity interactions were estimated. Results: Higher adiposity was associated with poorer mental health functioning. This emerged in the 30s, increased up to mid-40s (all central adiposity and obesity-BF% measures) or early 50s (all BMI measures) and then decreased with age. Underlying physical health generally accounted for these associations except for central adiposity, where associations remained statistically significant from the mid-30s to50s. Cardiovascular, followed by arthritis and endocrine, conditions played the greatest role in attenuating the associations under investigation. Conclusions: We found strong age-specific patterns in the adiposity-mental health functioning association that varied across adiposity measures. Underlying physical health had the dominant role in attenuating these associations. Policy makers and health professionals should target increased adiposity, mainly central adiposity, as it is a risk factor for poor mental health functioning in those aged between mid-30s to 50 years