Three Great American Disinflations

This paper analyzes the role of transparency and credibility in accounting for the widely divergent macroeconomic effects of three episodes of deliberate monetary contraction: the post-Civil War deflation, the post-WWI deflation, and the Volcker disinflation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model in which private agents use optimal filtering to infer the central bank's nominal anchor, we demonstrate that the salient features of these three historical episodes can be explained by differences in the design and transparency of monetary policy, even without any time variation in economic structure or model parameters. For a policy regime with relatively high credibility, our analysis highlights the benefits of a gradualist approach (as in the 1870s) rather than a sudden change in policy (as in 1920-21). In contrast, for a policy institution with relatively low credibility (such as the Federal Reserve in late 1980), an aggressive policy stance can play an important signalling role by making the policy shift more evident to private agents.

Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.Money supply ; Wages ; Depressions

Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.

The progression of deoxynivalenol-induced growth suppression in nursery pigs and the potential of an algae-modified montmorillonite clay to mitigate these effects

Citation: Frobose, H. L., Erceg, J. A., Fowler, S. Q., Tokach, M. D., DeRouchey, J. M., Woodworth, J. C., . . . Goodband, R. D. (2016). The progression of deoxynivalenol-induced growth suppression in nursery pigs and the potential of an algae-modified montmorillonite clay to mitigate these effects. Journal of Animal Science, 94(9), 3746-3759. doi:10.2527/jas2016-0663Two experiments were conducted to characterize the progression of deoxynivalenol (DON)-induced growth suppression and to investigate algae-modified montmorillonite clay (AMMC) as a means to alleviate the effects of DON in nursery pigs. In both experiments, naturally DON-contaminated wheat was used to produce diets with desired DON levels. In Exp. 1, 280 barrows and gilts (10.0 +/- 0.2 kg BW) were used in a 28-d experiment arranged in a 2 x 2 + 1 factorial design with 8 replicates per treatment. The 5 treatments consisted of 2 positive control (PC) diets with DON below detection limits and with or without 0 or 0.50% AMMC and 3 negative control (NC) diets with 5 mg/kg of DON and containing 0, 0.25, or 0.50% AMMC. No DON x AMMC interactions were observed. Overall, pigs fed DON had decreased (P < 0.001) ADG and final BW regardless of AMMC addition. Feeding DON-contaminated diets elicited the most severe depression (P < 0.001) in ADFI and G:F from d 0 to 3, remaining poorer overall (P < 0.01) but lessening in severity as exposure time increased. Pigs fed DON diets had greater (P < 0.05) within pen BW variation (CV) on d 28. Although the addition of 0.50% AMMC to diets restored (P < 0.05) ADFI from d 14 to 21 to levels similar to the PC, no other differences were observed for AMMC inclusion. In Exp. 2, 360 barrows (11.4 +/- 0.2 kg BW) were used in a 21-d experiment with 9 dietary treatments arranged in a 3 x 3 factorial design with DON and AMMC inclusion as main effects. There were 8 replicate pens per treatment. Treatments consisted of 3 PC diets without DON, 3 low-DON (1.5 mg/kg DON) NC diets, and 3 high-DON (3 mg/kg DON) NC diets with 0, 0.17, or 0.50% AMMC incorporated at each DON level. No DON x AMMC interactions were observed. As DON level increased, ADG and final BW decreased (quadratic, P < 0.05), driven by decreased (quadratic, P < 0.01) ADFI and poorer (quadratic; P < 0.05) G:F. At both 1.5 and 3 mg/kg DON, reductions in ADG were most marked from d 0 to 7 (15 to 22% lower) and were least distinct from d 14 to 21 (5 to 6% lower). Incorporating AMMC at increasing levels had no effect on ADG, ADFI, G:F, or final BW. Overall, these experiments reinforce DON effects on feed intake but also indicate that the effects of DON on G: F may be more severe than previously thought. Furthermore, some pigs appear to develop tolerance to DON, as effects on ADFI and G: F lessen over time. However, the addition of AMMC did not offset the deleterious effects of DON

Single-molecule super-resolution imaging of chromosomes and in situ haplotype visualization using Oligopaint FISH probes

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is a powerful single-cell technique for studying nuclear structure and organization. Here we report two advances in FISH-based imaging. We first describe the in situ visualization of single-copy regions of the genome using two single-molecule super-resolution methodologies. We then introduce a robust and reliable system that harnesses single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to visually distinguish the maternal and paternal homologous chromosomes in mammalian and insect systems. Both of these new technologies are enabled by renewable, bioinformatically designed, oligonucleotide-based Oligopaint probes, which we augment with a strategy that uses secondary oligonucleotides (oligos) to produce and enhance fluorescent signals. These advances should substantially expand the capability to query parent-of-origin-specific chromosome positioning and gene expression on a cell-by-cell basis

The search for universal transdiagnostic and trans-therapy change processes: evidence for intolerance of uncertainty

The search for universal processes associated with symptom change across emotional disorders and different forms of psychotherapy offers hope of increased theoretical parsimony and treatment efficiencies. This study investigated whether intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a universal process by examining whether changes in IU were associated with changes in symptoms across three different cognitive behavior therapy protocols for depression (n = 106), social anxiety disorder (n = 88), or generalized anxiety disorder (n = 62) in a community mental health clinic. IU was associated with reductions in repetitive negative thinking in all treatments, which is consistent with IU being a transdiagnostic and 'trans-therapy' process of change. Changes in IU were also associated with symptom relief in the social anxiety disorder and generalized anxiety disorder groups, but not in the depression group. Implications of these findings are discussed within the broader literature of transdiagnostic approaches to emotional disorders

New generalized fuzzy metrics and fixed point theorem in fuzzy metric space

In this paper, in fuzzy metric spaces (in the sense of Kramosil and Michalek (Kibernetika 11:336-344, 1957)) we introduce the concept of a generalized fuzzy metric which is the extension of a fuzzy metric. First, inspired by the ideas of Grabiec (Fuzzy Sets Syst. 125:385-389, 1989), we define a new G-contraction of Banach type with respect to this generalized fuzzy metric, which is a generalization of the contraction of Banach type (introduced by M Grabiec). Next, inspired by the ideas of Gregori and Sapena (Fuzzy Sets Syst. 125:245-252, 2002), we define a new GV-contraction of Banach type with respect to this generalized fuzzy metric, which is a generalization of the contraction of Banach type (introduced by V Gregori and A Sapena). Moreover, we provide the condition guaranteeing the existence of a fixed point for these single-valued contractions. Next, we show that the generalized pseudodistance J:X×X→[0,∞) (introduced by Włodarczyk and Plebaniak (Appl. Math. Lett. 24:325-328, 2011)) may generate some generalized fuzzy metric NJ on X. The paper includes also the comparison of our results with those existing in the literature

Imagery enhancements increase the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural group therapy for social anxiety disorder: A benchmarking study

Emerging evidence suggests that imagery-based techniques may enhance the effectiveness of traditional verbal-linguistic cognitive interventions for emotional disorders. This study extends an earlier pilot study by reporting outcomes from a naturalistic trial of an imagery-enhanced cognitive behavioural group therapy (IE-CBGT, n=53) protocol for social anxiety disorder (SAD), and comparing outcomes to historical controls who completed a predominantly verbally-based group protocol (n=129). Patients were consecutive referrals from health professionals to a community clinic specialising in anxiety and mood disorders. Both treatments involved 12, two-hour group sessions plus a one-month follow-up. Analyses evaluated treatment adherence, predictors of dropout, treatment effect sizes, reliable and clinically significant change, and whether self-reported tendencies to use imagery in everyday life and imagery ability predicted symptom change. IE-CBGT patients were substantially more likely to complete treatment than controls (91% vs. 65%). Effect sizes were very large for both treatments, but were significantly larger for IE-CBGT. A higher proportion of the IE-CBGT patients achieved reliable change, and better imagery ability was associated with larger symptom change. Outcomes compared very favourably to published group and individual treatments for SAD, suggesting that IE-CBGT may be a particularly effective and efficient mode of treatment delivery

Sanitary inspection of poisons in Croatia

Autori su našli da je broj higijensko-sanitarnih nedostataka u prostorijama i objektima gdje se otrovi proizvode i stavljaju u promet mnogo češći od nedostataka kod samih otrova. Ovo upućuje na to da je potrebno najprije obratiti veću pažnju na uvjete okoline u kojoj se otrovi nalaze. Tendencije pada broja nedostataka u prostorijama, objektima i kod otrova upućuje na to da se higijensko-sanitarni uvjeti stalno poboljšavaju.The authors analyzed the results of sanitary supervision of the conditions of handling and storage of poisonous substances in Croatia during the period between 1964 and 1976. They observed more inadequacy in the premises where the poisons are kept than imperfections in the poisonous material itself. The authors therefore concluded that more attention should be directed to the environmental conditions of poison production and storage. In recent years, however, there has been a tendency to improve these shortcomings

Mechanisms of change during group metacognitive therapy for repetitive negative thinking in primary and non-primary generalized anxiety disorder

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Repetitive negative thinking (RNT) is a transdiagnostic process that serves to maintain emotional disorders. Metacognitive theory suggests that positive and negative metacognitive beliefs guide the selection of RNT as a coping strategy which, in turn, increases psychological distress. The aim of this study was to test the indirect effect of metacognitive beliefs on psychological distress via RNT. Patients (N=52) with primary and non-primary generalized anxiety disorder attended a brief, six-week group metacognitive therapy program and completed measures of metacognitive beliefs, RNT, and symptoms at the first and final treatment sessions, and at a one-month follow-up. Prospective indirect effects models found that negative metacognitive beliefs (but not positive metacognitive beliefs) had a significant indirect effect on psychological distress via RNT. As predicted by metacognitive theory, targeting negative metacognitions in treatment appears to reduce RNT and, in turn, emotional distress. Further research using alternative measures at multiple time points during therapy is required to determine whether the absence of a relationship with positive metacognitive beliefs in this study was a consequence of (a) psychometric issues, (b) these beliefs only being relevant to a subgroup of patients, or (c) a lack of awareness early in treatment