The use of national datasets to baseline science education reform: exploring value-added approaches

This paper uses data from the National Pupil Database to investigate the differences in ‘performance’ across the range of science courses available following the 2006 Key Stage 4 (KS4) science reforms in England. This is a value-added exploration (from Key Stage 3 [KS3] to KS4) aimed not at the student or the school level, but rather at that of the course. Different methodological approaches to carrying out such an analysis, ranging from simple non-contextualized techniques, to more complex fully contextualized multilevel models, are investigated and their limitations and benefits are evaluated. Important differences between courses are found in terms of the typical ‘value’ they add to the students studying them with particular applied science courses producing higher mean KS4 outcomes for the same KS3 level compared with other courses. The implications of the emergence of such differences, in a context where schools are judged to a great extent on their value-added performance, are discussed. The relative importance of a variety of student characteristics in determining KS4 outcomes are also investigated. Substantive findings are that across all types of course, science prior attainment at KS3, rather than that of mathematics or English, is the most important predictor of KS4 performance in science, and that students of lower socio-economic status consistently make less progress over KS4 than might be expected, despite prior attainment being accounted for in the modelling

Playing safe: Assessing the risk of sexual abuse to elite child athletes

Young athletes frequently suffer from being seen as athletes first and children second. This has consequences for their legal, civil and human rights as children (Kelly et al., 1995) and for the way in which sport organisations choose to intervene on their behalf to protect them from physical, psychological and sexual abuses (Brackenridge, 1994). Sport careers peak at different ages depending on the sport: in some, children as young as 12 or 13 may reach the highest levels of competitive performance; in others, full maturity as an athlete may come late into adulthood or even middle age. Recognition of this variation has given rise to the concept of ‘sport age’ (Kirby, 1986) referring to sport-specific athlete development. This concept is of significance in helping to identify the developmental process in terms of athletic, rather than chronological, maturity. The risk of sexual abuse in sport, formerly ignored or denied, has now been documented in a number of studies, using both quantitative and qualitative methods (Kirby & Greaves, 1996; Brackenridge, 1997; Volkwein, 1996). Drawing on data from these studies and from the previous work on sport age and athletic maturation, this paper proposes a possible means of identifying and assessing relative risk of sexual abuse to elite young athletes in selected sports. The concept of a ‘stage of imminent achievement’ (SIA) is proposed as the period of peak vulnerability of young athletes to sexual abuse

Changes in the photochemical environment of the temperate North Pacific troposphere in response to increased Asian emissions

Measurements during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) field study characterized the springtime, eastern Pacific ozone distribution at two ground sites, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D aircraft, and from a light aircraft operated by the University of Washington. D. Jaffe and colleagues compared the 2002 ozone distribution with measurements made in the region over the two previous decades and show that average ozone levels over the eastern midlatitude Pacific have systematically increased by ∼10 ppbv in the last two decades. Here we provide substantial evidence that a marked change in the photochemical environment in the springtime troposphere of the North Pacific is responsible for this increased O3. This change is evidenced in the eastern North Pacific ITCT 2K2 study region by (1) larger increases in the minimum observed ozone levels compared to more modest increases in the maximum levels, (2) increased peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) levels that parallel trends in NOx, emissions, and (3) decreased efficiency of photochemical O3 destruction, i.e., less negative O3 photochemical tendency (or net rate of O3 photochemical production; P(O3)). This change photochemical environment is hypothesized to be due to anthropogenic emissions from Asia, which are believed to have substantially increased over the two decades preceding the study. We propose that their influence has changed the springtime Pacific tropospheric photochemistry from predominately ozone destroying to more nearly ozone producing. However, chemical transport model calculations indicate the possible influence of a confounding factor; unusual transport of tropical air to the western North Pacific during one early field study may have played a role in this apparent change in the photochemistry. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union

Ocean forced variability of Totten Glacier mass loss

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Geological Society of London via the DOI in this record.A large volume of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet drains through the Totten Glacier (TG) and is thought to be a potential source of substantial global sea level rise over the coming centuries. We show the surface velocity and heightof the floating part of TG, which buttresses the grounded component, have varied substantially over two decades (1989–2011), with variations in surface height strongly anti-correlated with simulated basal melt rates (r=0.70, p<0.05). Coupled glacier/ice-shelf simulations confirm ice flow and thickness respond to both basal melting of the ice shelf and grounding on bed obstacles. We conclude the observed variability of TG is primarily ocean-driven. Ocean warming in this region will lead to enhanced ice-sheet dynamism and loss of upstream grounded ice.This work was supported by, Australian Antarctic Division projects 3103, 4077, 4287 and 4346, National Computing Infrastructure grant m68, NSF grant ANT-0733025, NASA grant NNX09AR52G (Operation Ice Bridge), NERC grant NE/F016646/1, NERC fellowship NE/G012733/2, the Jackson School of Geoscience, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. This research was also supported by the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Programme through the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. The work is also supported under the Australian Research Councils Special Research Initiative for Antarctic Gateway Partnership SR140300001. Landsat 4 and 7 images courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. This is UTIG contribution 2486. Thanks to Benoit Legresy for useful discussions

Selective P2X7 receptor antagonists for chronic inflammation and pain

ATP, acting on P2X7 receptors, stimulates changes in intracellular calcium concentrations, maturation, and release of interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and following prolonged agonist exposure, cell death. The functional effects of P2X7 receptor activation facilitate several proinflammatory processes associated with arthritis. Within the nervous system, these proinflammatory processes may also contribute to the development and maintenance of chronic pain. Emerging data from genetic knockout studies have indicated specific roles for P2X7 receptors in inflammatory and neuropathic pain states. The discovery of multiple distinct chemical series of potent and highly selective P2X7 receptor antagonists have enhanced our understanding of P2X7 receptor pharmacology and the diverse array of P2X7 receptor signaling mechanisms. These antagonists have provided mechanistic insight into the role(s) P2X7 receptors play under pathophysiological conditions. In this review, we integrate the recent discoveries of novel P2X7 receptor-selective antagonists with a brief update on P2X7 receptor pharmacology and its therapeutic potential

Images and nonlocal vortex pinning in thin superfluid films

For thin films of superfluid adsorbed on a disordered substrate, we derive the equation of motion for a vortex in the presence of a random potential within a mean field (Hartree) description of the condensate. The compressible nature of the condensate leads to an effective pinning potential experienced by the vortex which is nonlocal, with a long range tail that smoothes out the random potential coupling the condensate to the substrate. We interpret this nonlocality in terms of images, and relate the effective potential governing the dynamics to the pinning energy arising from the expectation value of the Hamiltonian with respect to the vortex wavefunction.Comment: 19 pages, revtex, to appear Phys. Rev.

An investigation of the chemistry of ship emission plumes during ITCT 2002

A ship emission plume experiment was conducted about 100 km off the California coast during the NOAA Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT) 2K2 airborne field campaign. Measurements of chemical species were made from the NOAA WP-3D aircraft in eight consecutive transects of a ship plume around midday during 2.5 hours of flight. The measured species include NOx, HNO3, peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), SO2, H2SO4, O3, CO, CO2, nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and particle number and size distributions. Observations demonstrate a NOx lifetime of ∼1.8 hours inside the ship plume compared to ∼6.5 hours (at noontime) in the moderately polluted background marine boundary layer of the experiment. This confirms the earlier hypothesis of highly enhanced in-plume NOx destruction. Consequently, one would expect the impact of ship emissions is much less severe than those predicted by global models that do not include rapid NOx destruction. Photochemical model calculations suggest that more than 80% of the NOx loss was due to the NO2 + OH reaction; the remainder was by PAN formation. The model underestimated in-plume NOx loss rate by about 30%. In addition, a comparison of measured to predicted H2SO4 in the plumes suggests that the photochemical model predicts OH variability reasonably well but may underestimate actual values. Predictions of in-plume O3 production agree well with the observations, suggesting that model-predicted peroxy radical (HO2 + RO2) levels are reasonable. The model estimated ozone production efficiency ranges from 6 to 30. The largest model bias was seen in the comparison with measured HNO3. The model overestimated in-plume HNO3 by about a factor of 6. This is most likely caused by underestimated HNO3 sinks possibly involving particle scavenging. However, limited data availability precluded a conclusive test of this possible loss process. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

Gas-phase chemical characteristics of Asian emission plumes observed during ITCT 2K2 over the eastern North Pacific Ocean

The gas-phase chemical characteristics of emission plumes transported from Asia across the Pacific Ocean observed during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation experiment in 2002 (ITCT 2K2) are described. Plumes measured in the troposphere from an aircraft were separated from the background air in data analysis using 1-s measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), total reactive nitrogen (NOy), and other gasphase species along with back trajectory analysis. On the basis of these measurements, Asian transport plumes with CO mixing ratios greater than 150 ppbv were observed on seven flights. Correlations between 1-s observations of CO, ozone (O3), and NOy are used to characterize the plumes. The NOy/CO ratios were similar in each plume and significantly lower than those derived from estimated Asian emission ratios, indicating substantial removal of soluble NOy species during transport. Observations of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) nitric acid (HNO3) peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN), and alkyl nitrates are used with the NOy measurements to further distinguish the transport plumes by their NOy partitioning. NOy was primarily in the form of PAN in plumes that were transported in cold high-latitude and high-altitude regions, whereas in plumes transported in warmer, lower latitude and altitude regions, NOy was mainly HNO3. Additional gas-phase species enhanced in these plumes include sulfuric acid, methanol, acetone, propane, and ethane. The O3/CO ratio varied among the plumes and was affected by the mixing of anthropogenic and stratospheric influences. The complexity of this mixing prevents the determination of the relative contribution of anthropogenic and stratospheric influences to the observed O3 levels. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union

Early Epidemiological Assessment of the Virulence of Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Case Study of an Influenza Pandemic

Background: The case fatality ratio (CFR), the ratio of deaths from an infectious disease to the number of cases, provides an assessment of virulence. Calculation of the ratio of the cumulative number of deaths to cases during the course of an epidemic tends to result in a biased CFR. The present study develops a simple method to obtain an unbiased estimate of confirmed CFR (cCFR), using only the confirmed cases as the denominator, at an early stage of epidemic, even when there have been only a few deaths. Methodology/Principal Findings: Our method adjusts the biased cCFR by a factor of underestimation which is informed by the time from symptom onset to death. We first examine the approach by analyzing an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong (2003) with known unbiased cCFR estimate, and then investigate published epidemiological datasets of novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the USA and Canada (2009). Because observation of a few deaths alone does not permit estimating the distribution of the time from onset to death, the uncertainty is addressed by means of sensitivity analysis. The maximum likelihood estimate of the unbiased cCFR for influenza may lie in the range of 0.16-4.48% within the assumed parameter space for a factor of underestimation. The estimates for influenza suggest that the virulence is comparable to the early estimate in Mexico. Even when there have been no deaths, our model permits estimating a conservative upper bound of the cCFR. Conclusions: Although one has to keep in mind that the cCFR for an entire population is vulnerable to its variations among sub-populations and underdiagnosis, our method is useful for assessing virulence at the early stage of an epidemic and for informing policy makers and the public. © 2009 Nishiura et al.published_or_final_versio

Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from mathematical modelling.

Accepted versio