4,934 research outputs found

    Uncertainty in epidemiology and health risk assessment

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    Advances in leishmaniasis.

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    Governed by parasite and host factors and immunoinflammatory responses, the clinical spectrum of leishmaniasis encompasses subclinical (inapparent), localised (skin lesions), and disseminated infection (cutaneous, mucosal, or visceral). Symptomatic disease is subacute or chronic and diverse in presentation and outcome. Clinical characteristics vary further by endemic region. Despite T-cell-dependent immune responses, which produce asymptomatic and self-healing infection, or appropriate treatment, intracellular infection is probably life-long since targeted cells (tissue macrophages) allow residual parasites to persist. There is an epidemic of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Afghanistan and Pakistan and of visceral infection in India and Sudan. Diagnosis relies on visualising parasites in tissue or serology; culture and detection of parasite DNA are useful in the laboratory. Pentavalent antimony is the conventional treatment; however, resistance of visceral infection in India has spawned new treatment approaches--amphotericin B and its lipid formulations, injectable paromomycin, and oral miltefosine. Despite tangible advances in diagnosis, treatment, and basic scientific research, leishmaniasis is embedded in poverty and neglected. Current obstacles to realistic prevention and proper management include inadequate vector (sandfly) control, no vaccine, and insufficient access to or impetus for developing affordable new drugs

    The Company You Keep: Qualitative Uncertainty in Providing Club Goods

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    Clubs are typically experience goods. Potential members cannot ascertain precisely beforehand their quality (dependent endogenously on the club's facility investment and number of users, itself dependent on its pricing policy). Members with unsatisfactory initial experiences discontinue visits. We show that a monopoly profit maximiser never offers a free trial period for such goods but, for a quality function homogeneous of any feasible degree, a welfare maximiser always does. When the quality function is homogeneous of degree zero, the monopolist provides a socially excessive level of quality to repeat buyers. In other possible regimes, the monopolist permits too little club usage.Clubs, qualitative uncertainty, monopoly, welfarist

    Development and critical evaluation of a generic 2-D agro-hydrological model (SMCR_N) for the responses of crop yield and nitrogen composition to nitrogen fertilizer

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    Models play an important role in optimizing fertilizer use in agriculture to maintain sustainable crop production and to minimize the risk to the environment. In this study, we present a new Simulation Model for Crop Response to Nitrogen fertilizer (SMCR_N). The SMCR_N model, based on the recently developed model EU-Rotate_N for the N-economies of a wide range of crops and cropping systems, includes new modules for the estimation of N in the roots and an associated treatment of the recovery of soil mineral N by crops, for the reduction of growth rates by excessive fertilizer-N, and for the N mineralization from soil organic matter. The validity of the model was tested against the results from 32 multi-level fertilizer experiments on 16 different crop species. For this exercise none of the coefficients or parameters in the model was adjusted to improve the agreement between measurement and simulation. Over the practical range of fertilizer-N levels model predictions were, with few exceptions, in good agreement with measurements of crop dry weight (excluding fibrous roots) and its %N. The model considered that the entire reduction of soil inorganic N during growth was due to the sum of nitrate leaching, retention of N in fibrous roots and N uptake by the rest of the plant. The good agreement between the measured and simulated uptakes suggests that in this arable soil, losses of N from other soil processes were small. At high levels of fertilizer-N yields were dominated by the negative osmotic effect of fertilizer-N and model predictions for some crops were poor. However, the predictions were significantly improved by using a different value for the coefficient defining the osmotic effect for saline sensitive crops. The developed model SMCR_N uses generally readily available inputs, and is more mechanistic than most agronomic models and thus has the potential to be used as a tool for optimizing fertilizer practice

    Dark states in the magnetotransport through triple quantum dots

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    We consider the transport through a system of three coupled quantum dots in a perpendicular magnetic field. At zero field, destructive interference can trap an electron in a dark state -- a coherent superposition of dot states that completely blocks current flow. The magnetic field can disrupt this interference giving rise to oscillations in the current and its higher-order statistics as the field is increased. These oscillations have a period of either the flux-quantum or half the flux-quantum, depending on the dot geometry. We give results for the stationary current and for the shotnoise and skewness at zero and finite frequency.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

    Preliminary Investigation Into The Benefits From Investments In Environmental Research: Case Studies on Water Clarity/Quality and The Biological Management of Possums

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    MoRST is performing an evaluation of the funds invested in environmental research. The two case studies discussed in this paper contribute to the ongoing decision-making about this investment. Substantial funds have been invested in both research programmes identified. Because the main benefits associated with research output are environmental, they are difficult to value monetarily. Preliminary analysis suggests that at a discount rate of 6%, annual future benefit flows of 77 - 10 million will justify the water quality/clarity research. The expenditure on possum biocontrol will be justified if the research generates an annual future benefit flow of $20 million.Cost benefit analysis, returns to research, environmental research, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

    Phase Transitions in Generalised Spin-Boson (Dicke) Models

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    We consider a class of generalised single mode Dicke Hamiltonians with arbitrary boson coupling in the pseudo-spin xx-zz plane. We find exact solutions in the thermodynamic, large-spin limit as a function of the coupling angle, which allows us to continuously move between the simple dephasing and the original Dicke Hamiltonians. Only in the latter case (orthogonal static and fluctuating couplings), does the parity-symmetry induced quantum phase transition occur.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figue

    Increasing the frequency of hand washing by healthcare workers does not lead to commensurate reductions in staphylococcal infection in a hospital ward

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    Hand hygiene is generally considered to be the most important measure that can be applied to prevent the spread of healthcare-associated infection (HAI). Continuous emphasis on this intervention has lead to the widespread opinion that HAI rates can be greatly reduced by increased hand hygiene compliance alone. However, this assumes that the effectiveness of hand hygiene is not constrained by other factors and that improved compliance in excess of a given level, in itself, will result in a commensurate reduction in the incidence of HAI. However, several researchers have found the law of diminishing returns to apply to hand hygiene, with the greatest benefits occurring in the first 20% or so of compliance, and others have demonstrated that poor cohorting of nursing staff profoundly influences the effectiveness of hand hygiene measures. Collectively, these findings raise intriguing questions about the extent to which increasing compliance alone can further reduce rates of HAI. In order to investigate these issues further, we constructed a deterministic Ross-Macdonald model and applied it to a hypothetical general medical ward. In this model the transmission of staphylococcal infection was assumed to occur after contact with the transiently colonized hands of HCWs, who, in turn, acquire contamination only by touching colonized patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of imperfect hand cleansing on the transmission of staphylococcal infection and to identify, whether there is a limit, above which further hand hygiene compliance is unlikely to be of benefit. The model demonstrated that if transmission is solely via the hands of HCWs, it should, under most circumstances, be possible to prevent outbreaks of staphylococcal infection from occurring at a hand cleansing frequencies <50%, even with imperfect hand hygiene. The analysis also indicated that the relationship between hand cleansing efficacy and frequency is not linear - as efficacy decreases, so the hand cleansing frequency required to ensure R0<1 increases disproportionately. Although our study confirmed hand hygiene to be an effective control measure, it demonstrated that the law of diminishing returns applies, with the greatest benefit derived from the first 20% or so of compliance. Indeed, our analysis suggests that there is little benefit to be accrued from very high levels of hand cleansing and that in most situations compliance >40% should be enough to prevent outbreaks of staphylococcal infection occurring, if transmission is solely via the hands of HCWs. Furthermore we identified a non-linear relationship between hand cleansing efficacy and frequency, suggesting that it is important to maximise the efficacy of the hand cleansing process
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