Material Support: Counternarcotics vs. Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

Microeconomic analysis of counternarcotics strategies in Afghanistan suggests that current policies lend material support to the enemy. Vigorous enforcement can increase the flow of funds to insurgents and other parties that profit from trafficking. Rural-development programs, promoted as elements of a counternarcotics strategy, are open to some of the same objections. The benefits of drug-fighting in Afghanistan for consumer countries in Europe and North America are likely to be modest. Anti-corruption efforts in Afghanistan and demand-reduction programs both in Afghanistan and in consumer countries, insofar as they are feasible, could serve both counternarcotics and counterinsurgency objectives

The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19

One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by lockingdown portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms oflost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What isthe optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamicallyover the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal controlmodel that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcaresystem's capacity to deliver appropriate care. The analysis shows that four broad strategies canbe optimal, ranging from brief lockdowns that only \smooth the curve" to sustained lockdownsthat prevent infections from spiking beyond the healthcare system's capacity. Within this model,it can be optimal to have two separate periods of locking down, so returning to a lockdown afterinitial restrictions have been lifted is not necessarily a sign of failure. Relatively small changesin judgments about how to balance health and economic harms can alter dramatically whichstrategy is optimal. Indeed, there are constellations of parameters for which two or even three ofthese distinct strategies can all be optimal for the same set of initial conditions; these correspondto so-called triple Skiba points. The performance of trajectories can be highly nonlinear in thestate variables, such that for various times t, the optimal unemployment rate could be low,medium, or high, but not anywhere in between. These complex dynamics emerge naturally from modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and suggest a degree of humility in policy debates.Even people who share a common understanding of the problem's economics and epidemiologycan prefer dramatically di_erent policies. Conversely, favoring very di_erent policies is notevidence that there are fundamental disagreements

Mathematical programming modelling tools for resource-poor countries and organisations

In recent years, powerful mathematical modelling languages have enabled Operational Research practitioners to rapidly develop prototype tools capable of modelling complex managerial decisions such as staff shift scheduling, or production and supply chain planning. However, such tools have often required expensive commercial optimisation solvers that are sometimes beyond the financial reach of small companies and organisations, particularly in the low-income and emerging economies. Fortunately, the worldwide scope of the internet has put powerful free optimisation tools within the reach of anyone with a modest PC and even a slow internet connection. This article will present examples showing just how beneficial such an approach can be for resource-poor organisations

COVID-19 and Optimal Lockdown Strategies: The Effect of New and More Virulent Strains

Most nations have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by locking down parts of their economies starting in early 2020 to reduce the infectious spread. The optimal timing of the beginning and end of the lockdown, together with its intensity, is determined by the tradeoff between economic losses and improved health outcomes. These choices can be modelled within the framework of an optimal control model that recognises the nonlinear dynamics of epidemic spread and the increased risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system’s capacity. Past work has shown that within such a framework very different strategies may be optimal ranging from short to long and even multiple lockdowns, and small changes in the valuation on preventing a premature death may lead to quite different strategies becoming optimal. There even exist parameter constellations for which two or more very different strategies can be optimal. Here we revisit those crucial questions with revised parameters reflecting the greater infectivity of variants such as the “UK variant” of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and describe how the new variant may affect levels of mortality and other outcomes

How Long Should the COVID-19 Lockdown Continue?

Nations are struggling to decide when to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and those arguing for continuing the lockdown. We examine this choice within a simple optimal dynamic control model that encompasses both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very di_erent strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying to essentially eradicate the virus or merely to atten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals are already _lled to capacity

How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?

Nations struggled to decide when and how to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and those arguing for continuing the lockdown in some form. We examine the choice between continuing or ending a full lockdown within a simple optimal control model that encompasses both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying essentially to eradicate the virus or merely to flatten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals are already filled to capacity

The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19

One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by locking down portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms of lost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What is the optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamically over the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal control model that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system’s capacity to deliver appropriate care. The analysis shows that four broad strategies emerge, ranging from brief lockdowns that only “smooth the curve” to sustained lockdowns that prevent infections from spiking beyond the healthcare system’s capacity. Within this model, it can be optimal to have two separate periods of locking down, so returning to a lockdown after initial restrictions have been lifted is not necessarily a sign of failure. Relatively small changes in judgments about how to balance health and economic harms can alter dramatically which strategy prevails. Indeed, there are constellations of parameters for which two or even three of these distinct strategies can all perform equally well for the same set of initial conditions; these correspond to so-called triple Skiba points. The performance of trajectories can be highly nonlinear in the state variables, such that for various times , the optimal unemployment rate could be low, medium, or high, but not anywhere in between. These complex dynamics emerge naturally from modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and suggest a degree of humility in policy debates. Even people who share a common understanding of the problem’s economics and epidemiology can prefer dramatically different policies. Conversely, favoring very different policies is not evidence that there are fundamental disagreements

The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?

on the values of other model parameters. That vaccines and lockdowns can act as either substitutes or complements even in a relatively simple model casts doubt on whether in more complicated models or the real world one should expect them to always be just one or the other. Within our model, for parameter values reflecting conditions in developed countries, the typical finding is to ease lockdown intensity gradually after substantial shares of the population have been vaccinated, but other strategies can be optimal for other parameter values. Reserving vaccines for those who have not yet been infected barely outperforms simpler strategies that ignore prior infection status. For certain parameter combinations, there are instances in which two quite different policies can perform equally well, and sometimes very small increases in vaccine capacity can tip the optimal solution to one that involves much longer and more intense lockdowns

Riding the waves from epidemic to endemic: Viral mutations, immunological change and policy responses

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are an important tool for countering pandemics such as COVID-19. Some are cheap; others disrupt economic, educational, and social activity. The latter force governments to balance the health benefits of reduced infection and death against broader lockdown-induced societal costs. A literature has developed modeling how to optimally adjust lockdown intensity as an epidemic evolves. This paper extends that literature by augmenting the classic SIR model with additional states and flows capturing decay over time in vaccine-conferred immunity, the possibility that mutations create variants that erode immunity, and that protection against infection erodes faster than protecting against severe illness. As in past models, we find that small changes in parameter values can tip the optimal response between very different solutions, but the extensions considered here create new types of solutions. In some instances, it can be optimal to incur perpetual epidemic waves even if the uncontrolled infection prevalence would settle down to a stable intermediate level