Eliciting trade-offs between water charges and service benefits in Scotland. ESRI Working Paper No. 655 March 2020

If it is the responsibility of a regulatory body to decide where to prioritise future investment, then it is important to understand the priorities of the citizenry it represents. This paper, in collaboration with the OECD and the Scottish water industry, presents the results of an online (n= 500) and face-to-face laboratory (n= 99) study that utilised experimental behavioural science to explore how Scottish citizens trade-off costs and potential improvements to their water service. Participants’ priorities for investment were elicited using a novel ‘slider task’ methodology that forced them to explicitly consider the trade-offs required to allocate limited resources across multiple possible water service improvements. The provision of additional cost and timing information was systematically varied. Results suggest that citizens are increasingly accepting of price rises when provided this information. Results also suggest that citizens’ priorities for specific improvements are not sensitive to the costs of different improvements but are sensitive to the lengths of time improvements take to be made. Findings from this study are designed to inform the regulatory process of the Scottish water industry and highlight the potential role of behavioural science in regulation more generally

An experimental study of attitudes to changing water charges in Scotland. ESRI Working Paper No.654 March 2020

If an aim of a regulatory body is to act on behalf of the views of its citizenry, then it is important to understand what those views are. This paper, in collaboration with the OECD and the Scottish water industry, presents the results of an online (n= 500) and face-to-face laboratory (n= 100) study that utilised experimental behavioural science to explore how the provision and presentation of future price change information influences Scottish citizens’ acceptance of water price changes. Participants were asked to rate different patterns of price rises for their water charges. The pattern, presentation, magnitude of price rises and the provision of additional cost information (designed to simplify the calculations of future costs) was manipulated across tasks and participants. Results from this study suggest that Scottish citizens are generally accepting of price rises in the short and medium terms. However, the patterns of price rises, and the way in which information is presented, can influence these attitudes, suggesting that consumers do not always accurately integrate sequential price rises over time. Findings from this study are designed to inform the regulatory process of the Scottish water industry and highlight the potential role of behavioural science in regulation more generally

Interventions to increase physical activity in disadvantaged communities: A review of behavioural mechanisms. ESRI Working Paper No. 646 December 2019

Physical inactivity is now a significant driver of health and social inequalities among socioeconomically disadvantaged communities and poses a major challenge to policymakers, worldwide. Although a vast amount of research has focused on designing and evaluating interventions to increase physical activity, there remains little consensus on which interventions are likely to work. In this narrative review, we build on previous reviews by not only examining what interventions tend to work but by trying to understand why certain interventions tend to work, while others do not, through the lens of behavioural science. We present a behavioural framework through which the existing body of physical activity research could be viewed, in order to identify potentially effective mechanisms that would be likely to work in their intended domain. Our analysis finds that while there is evidence that the physical and educational environment matter for increasing levels of physical activity, interventions are more likely to be successful where they involve a social component. We conclude that a behaviourally informed physical activity intervention would thus employ a set of focused educational and socially-mediated behavioural mechanisms, within an appropriate physical environment

The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis

The intelligence community uses ‘structured analytic techniques’ to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) – a technique designed to reduce ‘confirmation bias’. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts’ judgment processes and conclusions was collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH-trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH’s ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgment inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful, and to explore alternatives

Motivating social distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic: An online experiment. ESRI Working Paper No. 658 April 2020

Social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic will save lives. We tested communication strategies to promote social distancing via an online experiment (N = 500) commissioned by Ireland’s Department of Health. A control group saw a current informational poster. Two treatment groups saw similar posters with messages that highlighted: (i) the risk of transmission to identifiable persons vulnerable to COVID-19; (ii) the exponential nature of transmission. We then measured judgements of behaviours previously identified by focus groups as “marginal” (meaning that people were not sure whether they were advisable, such meeting others outdoors, or visiting parents). We recorded intention to undertake behaviours and stated acceptability of behaviours. Our hypotheses, that both treatments would increase participants’ caution about marginal behaviours, were preregistered (i.e. lodged with an international organisation for open science before data collection). Results confirmed the hypotheses. The findings suggest that the thought of infecting vulnerable people or large numbers of people can motivate social distancing. This has implications for communications strategies. The stud

Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis

The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. Participants generated from 3-6 scenarios. Over half were rated as ‘high’ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). Scenario quality was unaffected by scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, participants’ first scenarios contained from 0-17 forecasts. Mean forecast accuracy was 45% and this was unaffected by forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers tackle humanitarian crises

The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning

An already pressing need to evidence the effectiveness of futures and foresight tools has been further amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, which highlighted more mainstream tools’ difficulty with uncertainty. In light of this, the recent discussion in this journal on providing futures and foresight science with a stronger scientific basis is welcome. In this discussion critical realism has been proffered as a useful philosophical foundation and experiments a useful method for improving this field’s scientific basis. Yet, experiments seek to isolate specific causal effects through closure (i.e., by controlling for all extraneous factors) and this may cause it to jar with critical realism’s emphasis on uncertainty and openness. We therefore extend the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science by doing three things. Firstly, we elaborate on critical realism and why the experimental method may jar with it. Secondly, we explain why the distinction between a conceptual and a direct replication can help overcome this jarring, meaning experiments can still be a valuable research tool for a futures and foresight science underpinned by critical realism. Thirdly, we consider the appropriate unit of analysis for experiments on futures and foresight tools. In so doing, we situate the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science within the much longer running one on improving the scientific basis of business, management and strategy research more broadly. We use the case of scenario planning to illustrate our argument in relation to futures and foresight science

Creation of 3D models from large unstructured image and video datasets

Exploration of various places using low-cost camera solutions over decades without having a photogrammetric application in mind has resulted in large collections of images and videos that may have significant cultural value. The purpose of collecting this data is often to provide a log of events and therefore the data is often unstructured and of varying quality. Depending on the equipment used there may be approximate location data available for the images but the accuracy of this data may also be of varying quality. In this paper we present an approach that can deal with these conditions and process datasets of this type to produce 3D models. Results from processing the dataset collected during the discovery and subsequent exploration of the HMAS Sydney and HSK Kormoran wreck sites shows the potential of our approach. The results are promising and show that there is potential to retrieve significantly more information from many of these datasets than previously thought possible

Investigation into the relationship between adolescents’ perceived and actual fundamental movement skills and physical activity

Abstract Objectives: To explore the relationship between fundamental movement skill (FMS) competence, perceived FMS competence and physical activity (PA) in adolescents. Methods: The Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD), the TGMD-2 and the Victorian Skills manual were used to assess FMS competence (locomotor, object control and stability). The Physical Self Confidence scale was used to assess perceived FMS competence (locomotor, object control and stability). Moderate to vigorous intensity PA (MVPA) was measured via accelerometry. Multi-level modelling analyses was used to examine: (i) actual FMS as the predictor and perceived FMS as the outcome, (ii) perceived FMS as the predictor and MVPA as the outcome, and (iii) actual FMS as the predictor and MVPA as the outcome. All analyses were completed for each subtest of FMS (locomotor, object control and stability). Results: A total of 584 adolescents (boys n = 278) aged 12.82 – 15.25 years (M 13.78, SD .42) participated in this study. Actual stability was associated with perceived stability (p<.01) and MVPA (p<.05) in boys. This was not found true for girls, however actual locomotor skills were associated with MVPA (p≤.05). Boys scored significantly higher than girls for FMS proficiency, perceived FMS and MVPA (p<.05). Discussion: Gender differences may exist due to cultural gender differences in sport participation norms. Considering the magnitude of physical and psychological changes occurring during adolescence, it is recommended to track young people over time to better understand the relationship between perceived and actual FMS, as well as PA participation. Keywords: physical activity, motor competence, adolescent

Readiness of Adolescent and Young Sickle Cell Patients to Transition from Pediatric to Adult Care

Patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) face many challenges as they enter adulthood; therefore, preparing for the transition to adult care is crucial. Assessing the knowledge and skills adolescents and young adults (AYAs) possess before transitioning to adult care can aid in the success of their transition. However, a gap exists regarding factors attributed to guiding patients’ sense of readiness. The purpose of this quantitative study, driven by the theory of self-care management of SCD, was to examine the self-perceived readiness of SCD patients as they prepare to transition to adult care. Cross-sectional survey data were collected from 68 sickle cell patients from a center in the northeastern U.S. Data analysis was conducted to examine the differences in readiness among AYAs based on several experiences and self-management skills. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, composite scores, Cronbach’s alpha test, and linear regression techniques. Meeting with an adult care provider was shown to have a positive impact on young adults’ self-perceived readiness (F (4,51) = 9.975, p \u3c .001). Results also indicate a significant association between self-perceived readiness and one’s perceptions of adult-oriented care (F (4,51) = 12.092, p \u3c .001). The social change implications of these findings include guiding the development of transition programs that are more targeted at meeting the transition needs of young adults with SCD