Kebijakan Penentuan Bentuk Insentif Pengembangan Hutan Rakyat di Wilayah Gunung Sawal, Ciamis dengan Metoda Ahp

Kawasan hutan Gunung Sawal terbagi menjadi beberapa klasifikasi, diantaranya Suaka Margasatwa Gunung Sawal (SMGS) dikelola BKSDA Jawa Barat II, hutan produksi dikelola Perum Perhutani, dan hutan rakyat dimiliki masyarakat. Ketiganya merupakan satu kesatuan ekosistem, dan keberadaannya berpengaruh terhadap wilayah yang ada di sekitarnya. Namun hutan rakyat terus mengalami konversi lahan menjadi fungsi lainnya. Untuk mempertahankannya, diperlukan insentif. Tujuan penelitian menemukan faktor-faktor penyebab terjadinya Perubahan lahan di hutan rakyat serta bentuk insentif yang sesuai dengan kondisi sosial ekonomi masyarakat. Kegiatan ini dilaksanakan di Desa Sandingtaman, Kecamatan Panjalu, Kabupaten Ciamis, pada bulan September - Oktober 2008. Data dikumpulkan dari responden petani dan informan kunci, dengan tehnik wawancara mendalam (indepth interview) dan metoda AHP (Analitical Hierarchy Process), selanjutnya dianalisis secara deskriptif. Kondisi sosial ekonomi mempengaruhi keputusan petani dalam pengelolaan hutan rakyatnya. Dari 9 bentuk insentif yang terpilih selanjutnya berdasarkan preferensi informan kunci, terpilih 3 insentif yang memiliki nilai tertinggi yaitu Penyuluhan yang tepat dan berlanjut baik tentang aspek teknis maupun manajemen, ekonomi, sosial, budaya (0,167); Perda yang mendukung kemantapan tata guna lahan yang melindungi lingkungan dan kesejahteraan masyarakat desa, (0,140); dan Regulasi yang dapat memberikan keadilan, yaitu peraturan pemerintah yang lebih berpihak kepada petani, misalnya pengaturan perizinan bertata niaga kayu yang berkaitan dengan jenis tanaman (0,126)

System Identification Based Proxy Model of a Reservoir under Water Injection

Simulation of numerical reservoir models with thousands and millions of grid blocks may consume a significant amount of time and effort, even when high performance processors are used. In cases where the simulation runs are required for sensitivity analysis, dynamic control, and optimization, the act needs to be repeated several times by continuously changing parameters. This makes it even more time-consuming. Currently, proxy models that are based on response surface are being used to lessen the time required for running simulations during sensitivity analysis and optimization. Proxy models are lighter mathematical models that run faster and perform in place of heavier models that require large computations. Nevertheless, to acquire data for modeling and validation and develop the proxy model itself, hundreds of simulation runs are required. In this paper, a system identification based proxy model that requires only a single simulation run and a properly designed excitation signal was proposed and evaluated using a benchmark case study. The results show that, with proper design of excitation signal and proper selection of model structure, system identification based proxy models are found to be practical and efficient alternatives for mimicking the performance of numerical reservoir models. The resulting proxy models have potential applications for dynamic well control and optimization

Numerical Modelling of Slope Stability and Transient Seepage Analysis: Jalan Puncak Borneo Road Case Study

A slope failure event in 2015 at KM 6+500 of Jalan Puncak Borneo in Padawan, Kuching was modelled using Seep/w and Slope/w software of commercial geotechnical programme GEOSTUDIO. The failure was occurred after a prolonged three days of heavy rain. The state road which connected the villagers from Puncak Borneo was cut off and caused traffic congestion.  In this study, the slope stability was evaluated based on finite element and limit equilibrium method by considering the transient seepage analysis due to rainfall infiltration.  The slope failure was modelled based on ground investigation report and published data to replicate the field condition.  A hyetograph was plotted using daily rainfall data and cumulative rainfall depth was determined to obtain the total rainfall during the wet monsoon. As a result of numerical analyses, the factor of safety was observed to fluctuate with time of infiltration. Based on this case study, the factor of safety or FOS reduced with time and a perched water table also has been observed developed just below the pavement.  However, the factor of safety calculated from Slope/w could not replicate the actual failure.  Nevertheless, it can be observed that factor of safety had decreased with respect to infiltration in the analyses.  The steady state condition provided FOS 1.33 and had reduced to 1.27 after 110 days of rainfall event.  Thus, the analyses of this current study have illustrated that the transient analysis is essential to model the seepage behaviour and infiltration event that caused slope failure along Sarawak’s roads

The linkage between virtual reality experience, visiting experience, and destination loyalty: Perspective of Muslim tourists from the West

This study examines the loyalty of Muslim tourists based in Western countries by incorporating their experiences visiting the destination in person and via virtual reality (VR). Data was gathered using an online survey from 330 Muslim tourists who have experience of actually visiting tourism destinations and via VR. This study employed partial least square (PLS) to examine the proposed destination loyalty model. Data analysis reveals that Muslim tourists’ loyalty toward a tourism destination is driven mainly by perceived experience quality from visiting the destination and experience with VR content with halal experiences demonstrating an insignificant effect on their loyalty

Numerical Modelling of Slope Stability and Transient Seepage Analysis: Jalan Puncak Borneo Road Case Study

A slope failure event in 2015 at KM 6+500 of Jalan Puncak Borneo in Padawan, Kuching was modelled using Seep/w and Slope/w software of commercial geotechnical programme GEOSTUDIO. The failure was occurred after a prolonged three days of heavy rain. The state road which connected the villagers from Puncak Borneo was cut off and caused traffic congestion.  In this study, the slope stability was evaluated based on finite element and limit equilibrium method by considering the transient seepage analysis due to rainfall infiltration.  The slope failure was modelled based on ground investigation report and published data to replicate the field condition.  A hyetograph was plotted using daily rainfall data and cumulative rainfall depth was determined to obtain the total rainfall during the wet monsoon. As a result of numerical analyses, the factor of safety was observed to fluctuate with time of infiltration. Based on this case study, the factor of safety or FOS reduced with time and a perched water table also has been observed developed just below the pavement.  However, the factor of safety calculated from Slope/w could not replicate the actual failure.  Nevertheless, it can be observed that factor of safety had decreased with respect to infiltration in the analyses.  The steady state condition provided FOS 1.33 and had reduced to 1.27 after 110 days of rainfall event.  Thus, the analyses of this current study have illustrated that the transient analysis is essential to model the seepage behaviour and infiltration event that caused slope failure along Sarawak’s roads

Coping styles in patients with haematological cancer in a Malaysian hospital.

OBJECTIVE: To assess coping styles of haematological cancer patients and investigate factors (major depressive disorders, socio-demographic profiles and clinical factors) that influence them. METHODS:This was a cross-sectional study conducted at the Ampang Hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, which is a tertiary referral centre for haematological diseases. In all, 105 patients with haematological cancer were assessed using the Brief COPE questionnaire to examine the coping styles of patients, and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview to assess major depressive disorder. RESULTS:The response rate was 83%. The coping strategies used by haematological cancer patients in descending order of frequency were: behavioural disengagement, active coping, denial, venting, self-distraction, substance use, acceptance, humour, use of emotional support, use of instrumental support, religion, positive reframing, planning, and self-blame. The coping styles were found to be associated with major depressive disorder, socio-demographic profiles, and clinical factors. Self-distraction and positive reframing coping styles were significant predictors and related to major depressive disorder. CONCLUSION:The early identification of poor coping styles in cancer patients is important, in order to enhance their survival and prevent relapses

Prediksi Kedatangan Turis Asing Ke Indonesia Menggunakan Backpropagation Neural Networks

In this paper, a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) method with time series data have been explored. The BPNN method to predict the foreign tourist's arrival to Indonesia datasets have been implemented. The foreign tourist's arrival datasets were taken from the center agency on statistics (BPS) Indonesia. The experimental results showed that the BPNN method with two hidden layers were able to forecast foreign tourist's arrival to Indonesia. Where, the mean square error (MSE) as forecasting accuracy has been indicated. In this study, the BPNN method is able and recommended to be alternative methods for predicting time series datasets. Also, the BPNN method showed that effective and easy to use. In other words, BPNN method is capable to producing good value of forecasting.Keywords - BPNN; foreign tourists; BPS; MSEPemanfaatan backpropagation neural network (BPNN) dengan data deret waktu telah digunakan dalam paper ini. Metode BPNN telah digunakan untuk memprediksi data kedatangan turis asing ke Indonesia, dimana data turis tersebut diambil dari badan pusat statistik Indonesia (BPS). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa metode BPNN dengan dua lapisan tersembunyi mampu memodelkan dan meramalkan data kedatangan turis asing ke Indonesia yang diindikasikan dengan nilai mean square error (MSE). Penelitian ini merekomendasikan bahwa metode BPNN mampu menjadi alternative metode dalam memprediksi data yang berjenis deret waktu karena metode BPNN efektif dan lebih mudah digunakan serta mampu menghasilkan akurasi nilai peramalan yang baik