Body mass index trajectories in early childhood in relation to cardiometabolic risk profile and body composition at 5 years of age

BACKGROUND: Both impaired and accelerated postnatal growth have been associated with adult risks of obesity and cardiometabolic diseases, like type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. However, the timing of the onset of cardiometabolic changes and the specific growth trajectories linking early growth with later disease risks are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify distinct trajectories of BMI growth from 0 to 5 y and examine their associations with body composition and markers of cardiometabolic risk at age 5 y. METHODS: In a prospective birth cohort study of 453 healthy and term Ethiopian children with BMIs assessed a median of 9 times during follow-up, we identified subgroups of distinct BMI trajectories in early childhood using latent class trajectory modeling. Associations of the identified growth trajectories with cardiometabolic markers and body composition at 5 y were analyzed using multiple linear regression analyses in 4 adjustment models for each outcome. RESULTS: We identified 4 heterogeneous BMI growth trajectories: stable low BMI (19.2%), normal BMI (48.8%), rapid catch-up to high BMI (17.9%), and slow catch-up to high BMI (14.1%). Compared with the normal BMI trajectory, children in the rapid catch-up to high BMI trajectory had higher triglycerides (TGs) (range of β-coefficients in Models 1-4: 19-21%), C-peptides (23-25%), fat masses (0.48-0.60 kg), and fat-free masses (0.50-0.77 kg) across the 4 adjustment models. Children in the stable low BMI trajectory had lower LDL cholesterol concentrations (0.14-0.17 mmol/L), HDL cholesterol concentrations (0.05-0.09 mmol/L), fat masses (0.60-0.64 kg), and fat-free masses (0.35-0.49 kg), but higher TGs (11-13%). CONCLUSIONS: The development of obesity and cardiometabolic risks may be established already in early childhood; thus, our data provide a further basis for timely interventions targeted at young children from low-income countries with unfavorable growth patterns. The birth cohort was registered at ISRCTN as ISRCTN46718296

Development of a research mentorship guide and consensus statement for low- and middle-income countries: Results of a modified Delphi process

Background Institutional research mentorship is a form of mentorship whereby institutions foster mentor-mentee relationships. Research mentorship improves research effectiveness and supports relationships. However, resources are needed in order to institutionalize research mentorship tailored to low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study was to develop a consensus document on institutionalizing research mentorship through a modified Delphi process as part of the practical guide development process. Methods This study used a two-round modified Delphi process, which is an iterative, structured approach of consensus decision making. Each participant was asked about a series of items related to research mentorship using Likert scale questions. Agreement for each item was pre-defined as ≥80% of participants rating the item as “agree” or “strongly agree.” The items that reached agreement, were then discussed during round two at an in-person conference in Ethiopia. A separate group of individuals only participated virtually. For the final consensus survey, response rates and commenting rates (participants who wrote two or more comments) were compared among conference and non-conference participants. Results The Delphi process led to the inception of three main themes in terms of developing research mentorship: leveraging existing resources, measuring and evaluating institutional mentorship, and encouraging a research mentorship life cycle. During the virtual first round, 59% (36/61) participants who were emailed completed the survey. In the second round, conference participants had a response rate of 79% (11/14) compared to non-conference participants with a response rate of 45% (21/47). Conference participants had a 100% (11/11) commenting rate whereas non-conference participants had a 38% (8/21) commenting rate. This study achieved consensus in both survey rounds for all 35 items on the consensus document. Conclusions The data suggest that an in-person conference may increase participant engagement. The consensus developed through a modified Delphi method directly informed a practical guide on institutionalizing research mentorship in LMICs

High seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Ethiopian healthcare workers

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemic has a devastating impact on the economies and health care system of sub-Saharan Africa. Healthcare workers (HWs), the main actors of the health system, are at higher risk because of their occupation. Serology-based estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HWs represent a measure of HWs' exposure to the virus and could be used as a guide to the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and valuable in combating COVID-19. This information is currently lacking in Ethiopia and other African countries. This study aimed to develop an in-house antibody testing assay, assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Ethiopian high-risk frontline HWs. METHODS: We developed and validated an in-house Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for specific detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain immunoglobin G (IgG) antibodies. We then used this assay to assess the seroprevalence among HWs in five public hospitals located in different geographic regions of Ethiopia. From consenting HWs, blood samples were collected between December 2020 and February 2021, the period between the two peaks of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected using questionnaire-based interviews. Descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the overall and post-stratified seroprevalence and the association between seropositivity and potential risk factors. RESULTS: Our successfully developed in-house assay sensitivity was 100% in serum samples collected 2- weeks after the first onset of symptoms whereas its specificity in pre-COVID-19 pandemic sera was 97.7%. Using this assay, we analyzed a total of 1997 sera collected from HWs. Of 1997 HWs who provided a blood sample, and demographic and clinical data, 51.7% were females, 74.0% had no symptoms compatible with COVID-19, and 29.0% had a history of contact with suspected or confirmed patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The overall seroprevalence was 39.6%. The lowest (24.5%) and the highest (48.0%) seroprevalence rates were found in Hiwot Fana Specialized Hospital in Harar and ALERT Hospital in Addis Ababa, respectively. Of the 821 seropositive HWs, 224(27.3%) of them had a history of symptoms consistent with COVID-19 while 436 (> 53%) of them had no contact with COVID-19 cases as well as no history of COVID-19 like symptoms. A history of close contact with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 cases is associated with seropositivity (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8; p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence levels were observed in the five Ethiopian hospitals. These findings highlight the significant burden of asymptomatic infection in Ethiopia and may reflect the scale of transmission in the general population

Associations of fat mass and fat-free mass accretion in infancy with body composition and cardiometabolic risk markers at 5 years: The Ethiopian iABC birth cohort study

BACKGROUND: Accelerated growth in early childhood is an established risk factor for later obesity and cardiometabolic disease, but the relative importance of fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) accretion is not well understood. We aimed to study how FM and FFM at birth and their accretion during infancy were associated with body composition and cardiometabolic risk markers at 5 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Healthy children born at term were enrolled in the Infant Anthropometry and Body Composition (iABC) birth cohort between December 2008 and October 2012 at Jimma University Specialized Hospital in the city of Jimma, Ethiopia. FM and FFM were assessed using air displacement plethysmography a median of 6 times between birth and 6 months of age. In 507 children, we estimated individual FM and FFM at birth and their accretion over 0-3 and 3-6 months of age using linear-spline mixed-effects modelling. We analysed associations of FM and FFM at birth and their accretion in infancy with height, waist circumference, FM, FFM, and cardiometabolic risk markers at 5 years using multiple linear regression analysis. A total of 340 children were studied at the 5-year follow-up (mean age: 60.0 months; girls: 50.3%; mean wealth index: 45.5 out of 100; breastfeeding status at 4.5 to 6 months post-partum: 12.5% exclusive, 21.4% almost exclusive, 60.6% predominant, 5.5% partial/none). Higher FM accretion in infancy was associated with higher FM and waist circumference at 5 years. For instance, 100-g/month higher FM accretion in the periods 0-3 and 3-6 months was associated with 339 g (95% CI: 243-435 g, p < 0.001) and 367 g (95% CI: 250-484 g, p < 0.001) greater FM at 5 years, respectively. Higher FM at birth and FM accretion from 0 to 3 months were associated with higher FFM and cholesterol concentrations at 5 years. Associations for cholesterol were strongest for low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, and remained significant after adjusting for current FM. A 100-g higher FM at birth and 100-g/month higher FM accretion from 0 to 3 months were associated with 0.16 mmol/l (95% CI: 0.05-0.26 mmol/l, p = 0.005) and 0.06 mmol/l (95% CI: 0.01-0.12 mmol/l, p = 0.016) higher LDL-cholesterol at 5 years, respectively. Higher FFM at birth and FFM accretion in infancy were associated with higher FM, FFM, waist circumference, and height at 5 years. For instance, 100-g/month higher FFM accretion in the periods 0-3 and 3-6 months was associated with 1,002 g (95% CI: 815-1,189 g, p < 0.001) and 624 g (95% CI: 419-829 g, p < 0.001) greater FFM at 5 years, respectively. We found no associations of FM and FFM growth with any of the other studied cardiometabolic markers including glucose, HbA1c, insulin, C-peptide, HOMA-IR, triglycerides, and blood pressure. Non-attendance at the 5-year follow-up visit was the main limitation of this study, which may have introduced selection bias and limited the power of the regression analyses. CONCLUSIONS: FM accretion in early life was positively associated with markers of adiposity and lipid metabolism, but not with blood pressure and cardiometabolic markers related to glucose homeostasis. FFM accretion was primarily related to linear growth and FFM at 5 years

Pathogen Proteins Eliciting Antibodies Do Not Share Epitopes with Host Proteins: A Bioinformatics Approach

The best way to prevent diseases caused by pathogens is by the use of vaccines. The advent of genomics enables genome-wide searches of new vaccine candidates, called reverse vaccinology. The most common strategy to apply reverse vaccinology is by designing subunit recombinant vaccines, which usually generate an humoral immune response due to B-cell epitopes in proteins. A major problem for this strategy is the identification of protective immunogenic proteins from the surfome of the pathogen. Epitope mimicry may lead to auto-immune phenomena related to several human diseases. A sequence-based computational analysis has been carried out applying the BLASTP algorithm. Therefore, two huge databases have been created, one with the most complete and current linear B-cell epitopes, and the other one with the surface-protein sequences of the main human respiratory bacterial pathogens. We found that none of the 7353 linear B-cell epitopes analysed shares any sequence identity region with human proteins capable of generating antibodies, and that only 1% of the 2175 exposed proteins analysed contain a stretch of shared sequence with the human proteome. These findings suggest the existence of a mechanism to avoid autoimmunity. We also propose a strategy for corroborating or warning about the viability of a protein linear B-cell epitope as a putative vaccine candidate in a reverse vaccinology study; so, epitopes without any sequence identity with human proteins should be very good vaccine candidates, and the other way around

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: Results from the global burden of disease study 2017

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC