Development and Validation of Predictive Model for a Diagnosis of First Episode Psychosis Using the Multinational EU-GEI Case–control Study and Modern Statistical Learning Methods

Background and Hypothesis: It is argued that availability of diagnostic models will facilitate a more rapid identification of individuals who are at a higher risk of first episode psychosis (FEP). Therefore, we developed, evaluated, and validated a diagnostic risk estimation model to classify individual with FEP and controls across six countries. / Study Design: We used data from a large multi-center study encompassing 2627 phenotypically well-defined participants (aged 18-64 years) recruited from six countries spanning 17 research sites, as part of the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions study. To build the diagnostic model and identify which of important factors for estimating an individual risk of FEP, we applied a binary logistic model with regularization by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The model was validated employing the internal-external cross-validation approach. The model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration, sensitivity, and specificity. / Study Results: Having included preselected 22 predictor variables, the model was able to discriminate adults with FEP and controls with high accuracy across all six countries (rangesAUROC=0.84-0.86). Specificity (range=73.9-78.0%) and sensitivity (range=75.6-79.3%) were equally good, cumulatively indicating an excellent model accuracy; though, calibration slope for the diagnostic model showed a presence of some overfitting when applied specifically to participants from France, the UK, and The Netherlands. / Conclusions: The new FEP model achieved a good discrimination and good calibration across six countries with different ethnic contributions supporting its robustness and good generalizability

Development and Validation of Predictive Model for a Diagnosis of First Episode Psychosis Using the Multinational EU-GEI Case-control Study and Modern Statistical Learning Methods

Background and Hypothesis: It is argued that availability of diagnostic models will facilitate a more rapid identification of individuals who are at a higher risk of first episode psychosis (FEP). Therefore, we developed, evaluated, and validated a diagnostic risk estimation model to classify individual with FEP and controls across six countries. Study Design: We used data from a large multi-center study encompassing 2627 phenotypically well-defined participants (aged 18-64 years) recruited from six countries spanning 17 research sites, as part of the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions study. To build the diagnostic model and identify which of important factors for estimating an individual risk of FEP, we applied a binary logistic model with regularization by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The model was validated employing the internal-external cross-validation approach. The model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration, sensitivity, and specificity. Study Results: Having included preselected 22 predictor variables, the model was able to discriminate adults with FEP and controls with high accuracy across all six countries (rangesAUROC=0.84-0.86). Specificity (range=73.9-78.0%) and sensitivity (range=75.6-79.3%) were equally good, cumulatively indicating an excellent model accuracy; though, calibration slope for the diagnostic model showed a presence of some overfitting when applied specifically to participants from France, the UK, and The Netherlands. Conclusions: The new FEP model achieved a good discrimination and good calibration across six countries with different ethnic contributions supporting its robustness and good generalizability.</p

Variation of subclinical psychosis across 16 sites in Europe and Brazil: findings from the multi-national EU-GEI study

Background: Incidence of first-episode psychosis (FEP) varies substantially across geographic regions. Phenotypes of subclinical psychosis (SP), such as psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and schizotypy, present several similarities with psychosis. We aimed to examine whether SP measures varied across different sites and whether this variation was comparable with FEP incidence within the same areas. We further examined contribution of environmental and genetic factors to SP. // Methods: We used data from 1497 controls recruited in 16 different sites across 6 countries. Factor scores for several psychopathological dimensions of schizotypy and PLEs were obtained using multidimensional item response theory models. Variation of these scores was assessed using multi-level regression analysis to estimate individual and between-sites variance adjusting for age, sex, education, migrant, employment and relational status, childhood adversity, and cannabis use. In the final model we added local FEP incidence as a second-level variable. Association with genetic liability was examined separately. // Results: Schizotypy showed a large between-sites variation with up to 15% of variance attributable to site-level characteristics. Adding local FEP incidence to the model considerably reduced the between-sites unexplained schizotypy variance. PLEs did not show as much variation. Overall, SP was associated with younger age, migrant, unmarried, unemployed and less educated individuals, cannabis use, and childhood adversity. Both phenotypes were associated with genetic liability to schizophrenia. // Conclusions: Schizotypy showed substantial between-sites variation, being more represented in areas where FEP incidence is higher. This supports the hypothesis that shared contextual factors shape the between-sites variation of psychosis across the spectrum

The association between reasons for first using cannabis, later pattern of use, and risk of first-episode psychosis: the EU-GEI case-control study.

While cannabis use is a well-established risk factor for psychosis, little is known about any association between reasons for first using cannabis (RFUC) and later patterns of use and risk of psychosis. We used data from 11 sites of the multicentre European Gene-Environment Interaction (EU-GEI) case-control study. 558 first-episode psychosis patients (FEPp) and 567 population controls who had used cannabis and reported their RFUC.We ran logistic regressions to examine whether RFUC were associated with first-episode psychosis (FEP) case-control status. Path analysis then examined the relationship between RFUC, subsequent patterns of cannabis use, and case-control status. Controls (86.1%) and FEPp (75.63%) were most likely to report 'because of friends' as their most common RFUC. However, 20.1% of FEPp compared to 5.8% of controls reported: 'to feel better' as their RFUC (χ &lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 50.97; p &lt; 0.001). RFUC 'to feel better' was associated with being a FEPp (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.03-2.95) while RFUC 'with friends' was associated with being a control (OR 0.56; 95% CI 0.37-0.83). The path model indicated an association between RFUC 'to feel better' with heavy cannabis use and with FEPp-control status. Both FEPp and controls usually started using cannabis with their friends, but more patients than controls had begun to use 'to feel better'. People who reported their reason for first using cannabis to 'feel better' were more likely to progress to heavy use and develop a psychotic disorder than those reporting 'because of friends'

The relationship between genetic liability, childhood maltreatment, and IQ: findings from the EU-GEI multicentric case-control study

This study investigated if the association between childhood maltreatment and cognition among psychosis patients and community controls was partially accounted for by genetic liability for psychosis. Patients with first-episode psychosis (N = 755) and unaffected controls (N = 1219) from the EU-GEI study were assessed for childhood maltreatment, intelligence quotient (IQ), family history of psychosis (FH), and polygenic risk score for schizophrenia (SZ-PRS). Controlling for FH and SZ-PRS did not attenuate the association between childhood maltreatment and IQ in cases or controls. Findings suggest that these expressions of genetic liability cannot account for the lower levels of cognition found among adults maltreated in childhood

The association between reasons for first using cannabis, later pattern of use, and risk of first-episode psychosis: the EU-GEI case-control study

BACKGROUND: While cannabis use is a well-established risk factor for psychosis, little is known about any association between reasons for first using cannabis (RFUC) and later patterns of use and risk of psychosis. METHODS: We used data from 11 sites of the multicentre European Gene-Environment Interaction (EU-GEI) case-control study. 558 first-episode psychosis patients (FEPp) and 567 population controls who had used cannabis and reported their RFUC.We ran logistic regressions to examine whether RFUC were associated with first-episode psychosis (FEP) case-control status. Path analysis then examined the relationship between RFUC, subsequent patterns of cannabis use, and case-control status. RESULTS: Controls (86.1%) and FEPp (75.63%) were most likely to report 'because of friends' as their most common RFUC. However, 20.1% of FEPp compared to 5.8% of controls reported: 'to feel better' as their RFUC (χ2 = 50.97; p < 0.001). RFUC 'to feel better' was associated with being a FEPp (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.03-2.95) while RFUC 'with friends' was associated with being a control (OR 0.56; 95% CI 0.37-0.83). The path model indicated an association between RFUC 'to feel better' with heavy cannabis use and with FEPp-control status. CONCLUSIONS: Both FEPp and controls usually started using cannabis with their friends, but more patients than controls had begun to use 'to feel better'. People who reported their reason for first using cannabis to 'feel better' were more likely to progress to heavy use and develop a psychotic disorder than those reporting 'because of friends'

The relationship between genetic liability, childhood maltreatment, and IQ: findings from the EU-GEI multicentric case-control study

This study investigated if the association between childhood maltreatment and cognition among psychosis patients and community controls was partially accounted for by genetic liability for psychosis. Patients with first-episode psychosis (N = 755) and unaffected controls (N = 1219) from the EU-GEI study were assessed for childhood maltreatment, intelligence quotient (IQ), family history of psychosis (FH), and polygenic risk score for schizophrenia (SZ-PRS). Controlling for FH and SZ-PRS did not attenuate the association between childhood maltreatment and IQ in cases or controls. Findings suggest that these expressions of genetic liability cannot account for the lower levels of cognition found among adults maltreated in childhood

Methylomic signature of current cannabis use in two first-episode psychosis cohorts

The rising prevalence and legalisation of cannabis worldwide have underscored the need for a comprehensive understanding of its biological impact, particularly on mental health. Epigenetic mechanisms, specifically DNA methylation, have gained increasing recognition as vital factors in the interplay between risk factors and mental health. This study aimed to explore the effects of current cannabis use and high-potency cannabis on DNA methylation in two independent cohorts of individuals experiencing first-episode psychosis (FEP) compared to control subjects. The combined sample consisted of 682 participants (188 current cannabis users and 494 never users). DNA methylation profiles were generated on blood-derived DNA samples using the Illumina DNA methylation array platform. A meta-analysis across cohorts identified one CpG site (cg11669285) in the CAVIN1 gene that showed differential methylation with current cannabis use, surpassing the array-wide significance threshold, and independent of the tobacco-related epigenetic signature. Furthermore, a CpG site localised in the MCU gene (cg11669285) achieved array-wide significance in an analysis of the effect of high-potency (THC = &gt; 10%) current cannabis use. Pathway and regional analyses identified cannabis-related epigenetic variation proximal to genes linked to immune and mitochondrial function, both of which are known to be influenced by cannabinoids. Interestingly, a model including an interaction term between cannabis use and FEP status identified two sites that were significantly associated with current cannabis use with a nominally significant interaction suggesting that FEP status might moderate how cannabis use affects DNA methylation. Overall, these findings contribute to our understanding of the epigenetic impact of current cannabis use and highlight potential molecular pathways affected by cannabis exposure

Cannabis use as a potential mediator between childhood adversity and first-episode psychosis: results from the EU-GEI case-control study

Background Childhood adversity and cannabis use are considered independent risk factors for psychosis, but whether different patterns of cannabis use may be acting as mediator between adversity and psychotic disorders has not yet been explored. The aim of this study is to examine whether cannabis use mediates the relationship between childhood adversity and psychosis. Methods Data were utilised on 881 first-episode psychosis patients and 1231 controls from the European network of national schizophrenia networks studying Gene–Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) study. Detailed history of cannabis use was collected with the Cannabis Experience Questionnaire. The Childhood Experience of Care and Abuse Questionnaire was used to assess exposure to household discord, sexual, physical or emotional abuse and bullying in two periods: early (0–11 years), and late (12–17 years). A path decomposition method was used to analyse whether the association between childhood adversity and psychosis was mediated by (1) lifetime cannabis use, (2) cannabis potency and (3) frequency of use. Results The association between household discord and psychosis was partially mediated by lifetime use of cannabis (indirect effect coef. 0.078, s.e. 0.022, 17%), its potency (indirect effect coef. 0.059, s.e. 0.018, 14%) and by frequency (indirect effect coef. 0.117, s.e. 0.038, 29%). Similar findings were obtained when analyses were restricted to early exposure to household discord. Conclusions Harmful patterns of cannabis use mediated the association between specific childhood adversities, like household discord, with later psychosis. Children exposed to particularly challenging environments in their household could benefit from psychosocial interventions aimed at preventing cannabis misuse

Activation of Hif1α by the Prolylhydroxylase Inhibitor Dimethyoxalyglycine Decreases Radiosensitivity

Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (Hif1α) is a stress responsive transcription factor, which regulates the expression of genes required for adaption to hypoxia. Hif1α is normally hydroxylated by an oxygen-dependent prolylhydroxylase, leading to degradation and clearance of Hif1α from the cell. Under hypoxic conditions, the activity of the prolylhydroxylase is reduced and Hif1α accumulates. Hif1α is also constitutively expressed in tumor cells, where it is associated with resistance to ionizing radiation. Activation of the Hif1α transcriptional regulatory pathway may therefore function to protect normal cells from DNA damage caused by ionizing radiation. Here, we utilized the prolylhydroxylase inhibitor dimethyloxalylglycine (DMOG) to elevate Hif1α levels in mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) to determine if DMOG could function as a radioprotector. The results demonstrate that DMOG increased Hif1α protein levels and decreased the sensitivity of MEFs to ionizing radiation. Further, the ability of DMOG to function as a radioprotector required Hif1α, indicating a key role for Hif1α's transcriptional activity. DMOG also induced the Hif1α -dependent accumulation of several DNA damage response proteins, including CHD4 and MTA3 (sub-units of the NuRD deacetylase complex) and the Suv39h1 histone H3 methyltransferase. Depletion of Suv39h1, but not CHD4 or MTA3, reduced the ability of DMOG to protect cells from radiation damage, implicating increased histone H3 methylation in the radioprotection of cells. Finally, treatment of mice with DMOG prior to total body irradiation resulted in significant radioprotection of the mice, demonstrating the utility of DMOG and related prolylhydroxylase inhibitors to protect whole organisms from ionizing radiation. Activation of Hif1α through prolylhydroxylase inhibition therefore identifies a new pathway for the development of novel radiation protectors