The mortality of the Italian population: Smoothing techniques on the Lee--Carter model

Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of the mortality intensity. Hyndman-Ullah show a particular version of the Lee-Carter methodology, the so-called Functional Demographic Model, which is one of the most accurate approaches as regards some mortality data, particularly for longer forecast horizons where the benefit of a damped trend forecast is greater. The paper objective is properly to single out the most suitable model between the basic Lee-Carter and the Functional Demographic Model to the Italian mortality data. A comparative assessment is made and the empirical results are presented using a range of graphical analyses.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS394 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Trace metal contamination in marine and riverine sediments around San Rossore Park (Italy)

Surficial sediments collected in 1984 and 1985 in the marine coastal belt and in the final stretch of rivers flowing in the San Rossore zone were analyzed for ten trace elements using atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Inter-element relationships as well as those with grain size and organic carbon contents were examined before interpreting the data obtained. The results indicate that rivers flowing in this area and especially the river Morto, are subject to anthropogenic input of Cr, Cd, Hg, Pb, Cu and Zn. The remobilization of several elements in the estuarine zone and their possible involvement in the deterioration processes of coastal vegetation of the San Rossore park, are discussed.peer-reviewe

Molecular genetic identification of skeletal remains of apartheid activists in South Africa

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission made significant progress in examining abuses committed during the apartheid era in South Africa. Despite information revealed by the commission, a large number of individuals remained missing when the commission closed its proceedings. This provided the impetus for the establishment of a Missing Persons Task Team within the South African National Prosecuting Authority. The team has used evidence generated by The Truth and Reconciliation Commission as well as their own investigations to identify likely burial sites for activists and has conducted exhumations. The University of the Western Cape (UWC) was privileged to have been able to assist by initiating a DNA testing program to augment the non-DNA evidence gathered by the Missing Person's Task Team. In this review we consider some of the technological developments associated with the testing of skeletal remains and provide an overview of some of the cases analyzed to date

Uniqueness and partition of energy for thermomicrostretch elastic solids backward intime

2009 - 2010In questo lavoro, è mostrata l’unicità delle soluzioni per il problema a ritroso nel tempo della teoria lineare dei materiali elastici termomicrostretch, ed è provata l’impossibilità della localizzazione nel tempo della soluzione del corrispondente problema diretto. Inoltre, è studiato il comportamento temporale a ritroso nel tempo dei processi termoelastodinamici stabilendo le relazioni che descrivono il comportamento asintotico delle medie di Cesàro delle diverse componenti dell’energia totale. [a cura dell'autore]IX n.s

[Thunderstorm and asthma outbreaks during pollen season]

An increasing body of evidence shows the occurrence of asthma epidemics, sometimes also severe, during thunderstorms in the pollen season in various geographical zones. The main hypothesis explaining association between thunderstorms and asthma claims that thunderstorms can concentrate pollen grains at ground level; these grains may then release allergenic particles of respirable size in the atmosphere after their rupture by osmotic shock. During the first 20-30 minutes of a thunderstorm, patients suffering from pollen allergy may inhale a high concentration of the allergenic material dispersed into the atmosphere, which can, in turn, induce asthmatic reactions, often severe. Subjects without asthma symptoms but affected by seasonal rhinitis can also experience an asthma attack. All subjects affected by pollen allergy should be alerted to the danger of being outdoors during a thunderstorm in the pollen season, as such events may be an important cause of severe bronchial obstruction. Considering this background, it is useful to predict thunderstorms during pollen season and, thus, to prevent thunderstorm-related clinical event. However, it is also important to focus on therapy, and it is not sufficient that subjects at risk of asthma follow a correct therapy with bronchodilators, but they also need to inhale corticosteroids, using both in case of emergency

Mechanisms of altered bone remodeling in children with type 1 diabetes

Bone loss associated with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) begins at the onset of the disease, already in childhood, determining a lower bone mass peak and hence a greater risk of osteoporosis and fractures later in life. The mechanisms underlying diabetic bone fragility are not yet completely understood. Hyperglycemia and insulin deficiency can affect the bone cells functions, as well as the bone marrow fat, thus impairing the bone strength, geometry, and microarchitecture. Several factors, like insulin and growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor 1, can control bone marrow mesenchymal stem cell commitment, and the receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B ligand/osteoprotegerin and Wnt-b catenin pathways can impair bone turnover. Some myokines may have a key role in regulating metabolic control and improving bone mass in T1DM subjects. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying altered bone remodeling in children affected by T1DM

Application of iron based nanoparticles as adsorbents for Arsenic removal from water

Arsenic contaminations of groundwater in several parts of the world are the results of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, and have a large impact on human health. Millions of people rely on groundwater for drinking water supply; therefore, contamination of these sources represents a strong limitation to their civil and urban development. Due to the toxicity and potential carcinogen effect, in 2001 the World Health Organization has reduced the maximum allowable concentration of arsenic in drinking water to 10 μg/L. This new limit has been then adopted by numerous countries, such as Italy. Among the methods used to reduce arsenic concentration, the adsorption process has often proved to be the most suitable in the case of drinking water sources. Adsorption efficiency strongly depends on the type of adsorbents. In the case of arsenic contaminated groundwater, a number of media have been tested so far (alumina, iron-based), some of which providing good removal. However, there is still an high interest in new media capable of providing better performances, i.e. longer duration of the column plants where the adsorption process is usually implemented at the full-scale. Recently there has been increasing interest on the application of nanoparticles and nanostructured materials as efficient and viable alternatives to conventional adsorbents in the removal of metals from water. Due to their small size, they possess a large surface area and a high surface area to volume ratio. These characteristics improve the adsorption capacity of the nanoparticles and make them potentially suitable for the application where higher removal efficiency are required. The present work investigates the application of a new nano-adsorbent for arsenic removal from water. The media was produced in laboratory and made by magnetite nanoparticles. These iron-based nanoparticles, characterized by a very small size (9 nm), showed high removal rate, providing a specific adsorption capacity at equilibrium of about 8.25 [mg As/g ads]. Among the investigated models, the pseudo-second order best fitted the experimental data of the kinetic tests. Comparisons made with the performance provided by commercial adsorbents and other materials confirms the use of magnetite nanoparticles for the removal of arsenic as a promising technique

Profit participation annuities: a business profitability analysis within a demographic risk sensitive approach

The aim of the paper is to analyze the performance of a portfolio of participating life annuities, focusing on the minimum acceptable income level throughout the quantiles of the return distribution. The model, in addition to the necessary consideration of the volatility of financial markets, gives a central role to the impact of the longevity phenomenon. The sensitivity of the portfolio performance to the survival projection, the presence of a break-even point and the time of optimum performance are pointed out, under different hypotheses for the participating quota and with stochastic assumption for the accumulation and the discounting financial processes and for the survival description

Metabolic Bone Disease of Prematurity: Diagnosis and Management

Metabolic Bone Disease (MBD) of prematurity is a multifactorial disorder commonly observed in very low birth weight (VLBW, <1,500 g) newborns, with a greater incidence in those extremely low birth weight (ELBW, <1,000 g). MBD is characterized by biochemical and radiological findings related to bone demineralization. Several antenatal and postnatal risk factors have been associated to MBD of prematurity, although the main pathogenetic mechanism is represented by the reduced placental transfer of calcium and phosphate related to preterm birth. The diagnosis of MBD of prematurity requires the assessment of several biochemical markers, radiological, and ultrasonographic findings. However, the best approach is the prevention of the symptomatic disease, based on the screening of subjects exposed to the risks of developing MBD. Regarding the subjects who need to be screened, there is a substantial agreement on the potential risk factors for MBD. On the contrary, different recommendations exist on the diagnosis, management and treatment of this disorder of bone metabolism. This review was aimed at: (1) identifying the subjects at risk for MBD of prematurity; (2) indicating the biochemical findings to take in consideration for the prevention of MBD of prematurity; (3) suggesting practical recommendations on nutritional intake and supplementation in these subjects. We searched for papers which report the current recommendations for biochemical assessment of MBD of prematurity and for its prevention and treatment. The majority of the authors suggest that MBD of prematurity is a disease which tends to normalize overtime, thus it is not mandatory to mimic the rate of mineral fetal accretion through parenteral or enteral supplementation. The optimization of total parenteral nutrition (TPN) and the early achievement of a full enteral feeding are important goals for the prevention and management of MBD of prematurity