Trading HIV for sheep: Risky sexual behavior and the response of female sex workers to Tabaski in Senegal

We use a cohort of female sex workers (FSWs) in Senegal to show how large anticipated economic shocks lead to increased risky sexual behavior. Exploiting the exogenous timing of interviews, we study the effect of Tabaski, the most important Islamic festival celebrated in Senegal, in which most households purchase an expensive animal for sacrifice. Condom use, measured robustly via the list experiment, falls by between 27.3 percentage points (pp) (65.5%) and 43.1 pp (22.7%) in the 9 days before Tabaski, or a maximum of 49.5 pp (76%) in the 7 day period preceding Tabaski. The evidence suggests the economic pressures from Tabaski are key to driving the behavior change observed through the price premium for condomless sex. Those most exposed to the economic pressure from Tabaski were unlikely to be using condoms at all in the week before the festival. Our findings show that Tabaski leads to increased risky behaviors for FSWs, a key population at high risk of HIV infection, for at least 1 week every year and has implications for FSWs in all countries celebrating Tabaski or similar festivals. Because of the scale, frequency, and size of the behavioral response to shocks of this type, policy should be carefully designed to protect vulnerable women against anticipated shocks

Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines

Background: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients’ risk. Objectives: To develop and validate a model for incident first‐primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. Methods: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case–Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age‐ and sex‐adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six‐level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71–4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23–2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76–0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70–0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test P‐value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. Conclusions: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self‐assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically‐assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions

Holographic Principle bounds on Primordial Black Hole abundances

The generalized Second Law of thermodynamics and the Holographic Principle are combined to obtain the maximum mass of black holes formed inside a static spherical box of size $R$ filled with radiation at initial temperature $T_{i}$. The final temperature after the formation of black holes is evaluated, and we show that a critical threshold exists for the radiation to be fully consumed by the process. We next argue that if some form of Holographic Principle holds, upper bounds to the mass density of PBHs formed in the early universe may be obtained. The limits are worked out for inflationary and non-inflationary cosmological models. This method is independent of the known limits based on the background fluxes (from cosmic rays, radiation and other forms of energy) and applies to potentially important epochs of PBH formation, resulting in quite strong constraints to $\Omega_{pbh}$.Comment: Latex file, 2 .ps figures. To appear in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Reliability and validity of three questionnaires measuring context-specific sedentary behaviour and associated correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults

BACKGROUND: Reliable and valid measures of total sedentary time, context-specific sedentary behaviour (SB) and its potential correlates are useful for the development of future interventions. The purpose was to examine test-retest reliability and criterion validity of three newly developed questionnaires on total sedentary time, context-specific SB and its potential correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults. METHODS: Reliability and validity was tested in six different samples of Flemish (Belgium) residents. For the reliability study, 20 adolescents, 22 adults and 20 older adults filled out the age-specific SB questionnaire twice. Test-retest reliability was analysed using Kappa coefficients, Intraclass Correlation Coefficients and/or percentage agreement, separately for the three age groups. For the validity study, data were retrieved from 62 adolescents, 33 adults and 33 older adults, with activPAL as criterion measure. Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman plots (or non-parametric approach) were used to analyse criterion validity, separately for the three age groups and for weekday, weekend day and average day. RESULTS: The test-retest reliability for self-reported total sedentary time indicated following values: ICC = 0.37-0.67 in adolescents; ICC = 0.73-0.77 in adults; ICC = 0.68-0.80 in older adults. Item-specific reliability results (e.g. context-specific SB and its potential correlates) showed good-to-excellent reliability in 67.94%, 68.90% and 66.38% of the items in adolescents, adults and older adults respectively. All items belonging to sedentary-related equipment and simultaneous SB showed good reliability. The sections of the questionnaire with lowest reliability were: context-specific SB (adolescents), potential correlates of computer use (adults) and potential correlates of motorized transport (older adults). Spearman correlations between self-reported total sedentary time and the activPAL were different for each age group: rho = 0.02-0.42 (adolescents), rho = 0.06-0.52 (adults), rho = 0.38-0.50 (older adults). Participants over-reported total sedentary time (except for weekend day in older adults) compared to the activPAL, for weekday, weekend day and average day respectively by +57.05%, +46.29%, +53.34% in adolescents; +40.40%, +19.15%, +32.89% in adults; +10.10%, -6.24%, +4.11% in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaires showed acceptable test-retest reliability and criterion validity. However, over-reporting of total SB was noticeable in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, these questionnaires will be useful in getting context-specific information on SB

Political Regimes and Sovereign Credit Risk in Europe, 1750-1913

This article uses a new panel data set to perform a statistical analysis of political regimes and sovereign credit risk in Europe from 1750 to 1913. Old Regime polities typically suffered from fiscal fragmentation and absolutist rule. By the start of World War I, however, many such countries had centralized institutions and limited government. Panel regressions indicate that centralized and?or limited regimes were associated with significant improvements in credit risk relative to fragmented and absolutist ones. Structural break tests also reveal close relationships between major turning points in yield series and political transformations

Can patient-led surveillance detect subsequent new primary or recurrent melanomas and reduce the need for routinely scheduled follow-up? A protocol for the MEL-SELF randomised controlled trial

This research project is funded by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Project grant (#1163054). The funder had no role in the design of the study and will have no role in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data; the writing of the report; or the decision to submit the report for publication. Funding Information: AEC is funded by a Career Development Fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC; 1147843). JFT is a recipient of an NHMRC Program Grant (1093017). RPMS is supported by Melanoma Institute Australia. RAS is supported by a NHMRC Program Grant and Practitioner Fellowship. For RAS, support from the from colleagues at Melanoma Institute Australia, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital and NSW Health Pathology is also gratefully acknowledged. RLM is supported with an NHMRC Investigator grant (1194703) and a University of Sydney Robinson Fellowship. HPS holds an NHMRC MRFF Next Generation Clinical Researchers Program Practitioner Fellowship (APP1137127). JH is supported by an NHMRC Early Career Fellowship (1112509). KB is supported by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (1174523) and a University of Sydney Research Accelerator (SOAR) Prize.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Dietary glycaemic index, glycaemic load and endometrial and ovarian cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Long-term consumption of a high glycaemic index (GI) or glycaemic load (GL) diet may lead to chronic hyperinsulinaemia, which is a potential risk factor for cancer. To date, many studies have examined the association between GI, GL and cancer risk, although results have been inconsistent, therefore our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the literature. Medline and Embase were systematically searched using terms for GI, GL and cancer to identify studies published before December 2007. Random effects meta-analyses were performed for endometrial cancer, combining maximally adjusted results that compared risk for those in the highest versus the lowest category of intake. Separate analysis examined risk by body mass index categories. Five studies examining GI and/or GL intake and endometrial cancer risk were identified. Pooled effect estimates for endometrial cancer showed an increased risk for high GL consumers (RR 1.20; 95% CI: 1.06–1.37), further elevated in obese women (RR 1.54; 95% CI: 1.18–2.03). No significant associations were observed for GI. Only two studies examined ovarian cancer and therefore no meta-analysis was performed, but results indicate positive associations for GL also. A high GL, but not a high GI, diet is positively associated with the risk of endometrial cancer, particularly among obese women

Endogenous sex hormones and endometrial cancer risk in women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

Epidemiological data show that reproductive and hormonal factors are involved in the etiology of endometrial cancer, but there is little data on the association with endogenous sex hormone levels. We analyzed the association between prediagnostic serum concentrations of sex steroids and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition using a nested case–control design of 247 incident endometrial cancer cases and 481 controls, matched on center, menopausal status, age, variables relating to blood collection, and, for premenopausal women, phase of menstrual cycle. Using conditional regression analysis, endometrial cancer risk among postmenopausal women was positively associated with increasing levels of total testosterone, free testosterone, estrone, total estradiol, and free estradiol. The odds ratios (ORs) for the highest versus lowest tertile were 2.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50–4.72; P=0.002 for a continuous linear trend) for estrone, 2.07 (95% CI 1.20–3.60; P=0.001) for estradiol, and 1.66 (95% CI 0.98–2.82; P=0.001) for free estradiol. For total and free testosterone, ORs for the highest versus lowest tertile were 1.44 (95% CI 0.88–2.36; P=0.05) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.23–3.42; P=0.005) respectively. Androstenedione and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate were not associated with risk. Sex hormone-binding globulin was significantly inversely associated with risk (OR for the highest versus lowest tertile was 0.57, 95% CI 0.34–0.95; P=0.004). In premenopausal women, serum sex hormone concentrations were not clearly associated with endometrial cancer risk, but numbers were too small to draw firm conclusions. In conclusion, relatively high blood concentrations of estrogens and free testosterone are associated with an increased endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women