Shedding light on the last mile : a study on the diffusion of pay as you go solar home systems in Central East Africa

Approximately 1.2 billion people lack basic access to electricity. The United Nations 'Sustainable Energy for All' initiative exemplifies the urgent need to address this issue. Recent advancements in photovoltaic, light emitting diode and battery technology have resulted in the rise of affordable and innovative household electricity technologies, however penetration rates remain low due to complexity surrounding ‘last mile’ distribution. This paper applies the diffusion of innovations theory as a framework to investigate the ‘last mile’ challenges encountered when launching a Pay As You Go Solar Home System in a region of Central East Africa. The results indicate that Pay As You Go offers the potential to deliver a disruptive positive impact with regard to increasing access to clean affordable energy for the poor, however, both the technology and business model are more complex than current alternatives and therefore require a much more developed go-to-market strategy. The cost of achieving widespread diffusion is therefore higher than similar products sold at retail, yet this is balanced by potential for a much faster rate of adoption. Finally, this paper demonstrates the applicability of the diffusion of innovations theory as a viable framework for analysing last mile challenges associated with Solar Home Systems

Changes in HPV prevalence following a national bivalent HPV vaccination programme in Scotland: a 7-year cross-sectional study

Background: On Sept 1, 2008, Scotland launched routine vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18, targeted at 12–13-year-old girls, of whom 92·4% were fully vaccinated in 2008–09. In this study, we report on vaccine effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in these vaccinated women who attended for routine cervical screening at age 20–21 years. Methods: In this 7-year cross-sectional study (covering birth cohorts 1988–1995), we sampled approximately 1000 samples per year from those attending cervical screening at age 20–21 years and tested each for HPV. By linkage to vaccination records we ascertained prevalence by birth cohort and vaccination status. Estimates of vaccine effectiveness for HPV types 16 and 18, HPV types 31, 33, and 45, other high-risk types, and any HPV were calculated using logistic regression. Findings: In total, 8584 samples were HPV genotyped. Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 reduced substantially from 30·0% (95% CI 26·9–33·1) in the 1988 cohort to 4·5% (3·5–5·7) in the 1995 cohort, giving a vaccine effectiveness of 89·1% (85·1–92·3) for those vaccinated at age 12–13 years. All cross-protective types showed significant vaccine effectiveness (HPV type 31, 93·8% [95% CI 83·8–98·5]; HPV type 33, 79·1% [64·2–89·0]; HPV type 45, 82·6% [61·5–93·9]). Unvaccinated individuals born in 1995 had a reduced odds of HPV types 16 and 18 infection compared with those born in 1988 (adjusted odds ratio 0·13 [95% CI 0·06–0·28]) and reduced odds of HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (odds ratio 0·45 [0·23–0·89]). Interpretation: Bivalent vaccination has led to a startling reduction in vaccine and cross-protective HPV types 7 years after vaccination. There is also evidence of herd protection against the vaccine-specific and cross-protective types in unvaccinated individuals born in 1995. These findings should be considered in cost-effectiveness models informing vaccine choice and models to shape the future of cervical screening programmes

A local human Vδ1 T cell population is associated with survival in nonsmall-cell lung cancer

Funding Information: D.B. has consulted for NanoString, reports honoraria from AstraZeneca and has a patent (PCT/GB2020/050221) issued on methods for cancer prognostication. J.R. and M.A.B. have consulted for Achilles Therapeutics. N.M. has stock options in and has consulted for Achilles Therapeutics. N.M. holds European patents relating to targeting neoantigens (PCT/EP2016/059401), identifying patient response to immune checkpoint blockade (PCT/EP2016/071471), determining HLA loss of heterozygosity (PCT/GB2018/052004) and predicting survival rates of patients with cancer (PCT/GB2020/050221). A.H. attended one advisory board for Abbvie, Roche and GRAIL, and reports personal fees from Abbvie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Takeda, AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Merck Serono, Merck/MSD, UCB and Roche for delivering general education/training in clinical trials. A.H. owned shares in Illumina and Thermo Fisher Scientific (sold in 2020) and receives fees for membership of Independent Data Monitoring Committees for Roche-sponsored clinical trials. S.A.Q. is co-founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Achilles Therapeutics. A.C.H. is a board member and equity holder in ImmunoQure, AG and Gamma Delta Therapeutics, and is an equity holder in Adaptate Biotherapeutics and chair of the scientific advisory board. C.S. acknowledges grant support from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roche-Ventana, Boehringer Ingelheim, Archer Dx Inc (collaboration in minimal residual disease-sequencing technologies) and Ono Pharmaceuticals, is an AstraZeneca Advisory Board member and Chief Investigator for the MeRmaiD1 clinical trial. C.S has consulted for Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bicycle Therapeutics, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, GRAIL, Illumina, Medixci, Metabomed, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche-Ventana and Sarah Cannon Research Institute. C.S. has stock options in Apogen Biotechnologies, Epic Biosciences and GRAIL, and has stock options and is co-founder of Achilles Therapeutics. C.S. holds patents relating: to assay technology to detect tumor recurrence (PCT/GB2017/053289); to targeting neoantigens (PCT/EP2016/059401), identifying patent response to immune checkpoint blockade (PCT/EP2016/071471), determining HLA loss of heterozygosity (PCT/GB2018/052004), predicting survival rates of patients with cancer (PCT/GB2020/050221); to treating cancer by targeting Insertion/deletion (indel) mutations (PCT/GB2018/051893); to identifying indel mutation targets (PCT/GB2018/051892); to methods for lung cancer detection (PCT/US2017/028013); and to identifying responders to cancer treatment (PCT/GB2018/051912). The remaining authors declare no competing interests. Funding Information: We thank the Oxford Genomics Centre at the Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics (funded by Wellcome Trust grant no. 203141/Z/16/Z) for the generation and initial processing of the RNA-seq data from sorted TILs. We thank S. Bola for technical support and S. Vanloo for administrative support. The GTEx project was supported by the Common Fund of the Office of the Director of the National Institutes of Health, and by the NCI, NHGRI, NHLBI, NIDA, NIMH and NINDS. Y.W. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Career Development Fellowship (no. 220589/Z/20/Z), an Academy of Medical Sciences Starter Grant for Clinical Lecturers, a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Lectureship and the NIHR University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. D.B. was supported by funding from the NIHR University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, the ideas 2 innovation translation scheme at the Francis Crick Institute, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF) and a Cancer Research UK (CRUK) Early Detection and Diagnosis Project award. M.J.H. is a CRUK Fellow and has received funding from CRUK, NIHR, Rosetrees Trust, UKI NETs and the NIHR University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. C.S. is Royal Society Napier Research Professor. This work was supported by the Francis Crick Institute which receives its core funding from CRUK (no. FC001169), the UK Medical Research Council (no. FC001169) and the Wellcome Trust (no. FC001169). This research was funded in whole, or in part, by the Wellcome Trust (no. FC001169). For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission. C.S. is funded by CRUK (TRACERx, PEACE and CRUK Cancer Immunotherapy Catalyst Network), CRUK Lung Cancer Centre of Excellence (no. C11496/A30025), the Rosetrees Trust, Butterfield and Stoneygate Trusts, NovoNordisk Foundation (ID16584), Royal Society Professorship Enhancement Award (no. RP/EA/180007), the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University College London Hospitals, the CRUK–University College London Centre, Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre and the BCRF. This work was supported by a Stand Up To Cancer‐LUNGevity-American Lung Association Lung Cancer Interception Dream Team Translational Research Grant (grant no. SU2C-AACR-DT23-17 to S. M. Dubinett and A. E. Spira). Stand Up To Cancer is a division of the Entertainment Industry Foundation. Research grants are administered by the American Association for Cancer Research, the Scientific Partner of SU2C. C.S. receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (no. FP7/2007-2013) Consolidator Grant (no. FP7-THESEUS-617844), European Commission ITN (no. FP7-PloidyNet 607722), an ERC Advanced Grant (PROTEUS) from the ERC under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant no. 835297), and Chromavision from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant no. 665233). Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

High-sensitivity troponin in the evaluation of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays permit use of lower thresholds for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but whether this improves clinical outcomes is unknown. We aimed to determine whether the introduction of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay with a sex-specific 99th centile diagnostic threshold would reduce subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: In this stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial across ten secondary or tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the implementation of an hs-cTnI assay in consecutive patients who had been admitted to the hospitals' emergency departments with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they presented with suspected acute coronary syndrome and had paired cardiac troponin measurements from the standard care and trial assays. During a validation phase of 6-12 months, results from the hs-cTnI assay were concealed from the attending clinician, and a contemporary cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assay was used to guide care. Hospitals were randomly allocated to early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation, in which the high-sensitivity assay and sex-specific 99th centile diagnostic threshold was introduced immediately after the 6-month validation phase or was deferred for a further 6 months. Patients reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay were defined as those with an increased hs-cTnI concentration in whom cTnI concentrations were below the diagnostic threshold on the contemporary assay. The primary outcome was subsequent myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular causes at 1 year after initial presentation. Outcomes were compared in patients reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay before and after its implementation by use of an adjusted generalised linear mixed model. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01852123. FINDINGS: Between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, we enrolled 48 282 consecutive patients (61 [SD 17] years, 47% women) of whom 10 360 (21%) patients had cTnI concentrations greater than those of the 99th centile of the normal range of values, who were identified by the contemporary assay or the high-sensitivity assay. The high-sensitivity assay reclassified 1771 (17%) of 10 360 patients with myocardial injury or infarction who were not identified by the contemporary assay. In those reclassified, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death within 1 year occurred in 105 (15%) of 720 patients in the validation phase and 131 (12%) of 1051 patients in the implementation phase (adjusted odds ratio for implementation vs validation phase 1·10, 95% CI 0·75 to 1·61; p=0·620). INTERPRETATION: Use of a high-sensitivity assay prompted reclassification of 1771 (17%) of 10 360 patients with myocardial injury or infarction, but was not associated with a lower subsequent incidence of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year. Our findings question whether the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction should be based on the 99th centile derived from a normal reference population. FUNDING: The British Heart Foundation

Evaluation of a COVID ‐19 fundamental nursing care guideline versus usual care: The COVID‐NURSE cluster randomized controlled trial

Aim: To evaluate the impact of usual care plus a fundamental nursing care guideline compared to usual care only for patients in hospital with COVID‐19 on patient experience, care quality, functional ability, treatment outcomes, nurses' moral distress, patient health‐related quality of life and cost‐effectiveness. Design: Parallel two‐arm, cluster‐level randomized controlled trial. Methods: Between 18th January and 20th December 2021, we recruited (i) adults aged 18 years and over with COVID‐19, excluding those invasively ventilated, admitted for at least three days or nights in UK Hospital Trusts; (ii) nurses caring for them. We randomly assigned hospitals to use a fundamental nursing care guideline and usual care or usual care only. Our patient‐reported co‐primary outcomes were the Relational Aspects of Care Questionnaire and four scales from the Quality from the Patient Perspective Questionnaire. We undertook intention‐to‐treat analyses. Results: We randomized 15 clusters and recruited 581 patient and 418 nurse participants. Primary outcome data were available for 570–572 (98.1%–98.5%) patient participants in 14 clusters. We found no evidence of between‐group differences on any patient, nurse or economic outcomes. We found between‐group differences over time, in favour of the intervention, for three of our five co‐primary outcomes, and a significant interaction on one primary patient outcome for ethnicity (white British vs. other) and allocated group in favour of the intervention for the ‘other’ ethnicity subgroup. Conclusion: We did not detect an overall difference in patient experience for a fundamental nursing care guideline compared to usual care. We have indications the guideline may have aided sustaining good practice over time and had a more positive impact on non‐white British patients' experience of care. Implications for the Profession and/or Patient Care: We cannot recommend the wholescale implementation of our guideline into routine nursing practice. Further intervention development, feasibility, pilot and evaluation studies are required. Impact: Fundamental nursing care drives patient experience but is severely impacted in pandemics. Our guideline was not superior to usual care, albeit it may sustain good practice and have a positive impact on non‐white British patients' experience of care. Reporting Method: CONSORT and CONSERVE. Patient or Public Contribution: Patients with experience of hospitalization with COVID‐19 were involved in guideline development and writing, trial management and interpretation of findings

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

The evolution of lung cancer and impact of subclonal selection in TRACERx

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide. Here we analysed 1,644 tumour regions sampled at surgery or during follow-up from the first 421 patients with non-small cell lung cancer prospectively enrolled into the TRACERx study. This project aims to decipher lung cancer evolution and address the primary study endpoint: determining the relationship between intratumour heterogeneity and clinical outcome. In lung adenocarcinoma, mutations in 22 out of 40 common cancer genes were under significant subclonal selection, including classical tumour initiators such as TP53 and KRAS. We defined evolutionary dependencies between drivers, mutational processes and whole genome doubling (WGD) events. Despite patients having a history of smoking, 8% of lung adenocarcinomas lacked evidence of tobacco-induced mutagenesis. These tumours also had similar detection rates for EGFR mutations and for RET, ROS1, ALK and MET oncogenic isoforms compared with tumours in never-smokers, which suggests that they have a similar aetiology and pathogenesis. Large subclonal expansions were associated with positive subclonal selection. Patients with tumours harbouring recent subclonal expansions, on the terminus of a phylogenetic branch, had significantly shorter disease-free survival. Subclonal WGD was detected in 19% of tumours, and 10% of tumours harboured multiple subclonal WGDs in parallel. Subclonal, but not truncal, WGD was associated with shorter disease-free survival. Copy number heterogeneity was associated with extrathoracic relapse within 1 year after surgery. These data demonstrate the importance of clonal expansion, WGD and copy number instability in determining the timing and patterns of relapse in non-small cell lung cancer and provide a comprehensive clinical cancer evolutionary data resource

The evolution of non-small cell lung cancer metastases in TRACERx

Metastatic disease is responsible for the majority of cancer-related deaths. We report the longitudinal evolutionary analysis of 126 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) tumours from 421 prospectively recruited patients in TRACERx who developed metastatic disease, compared with a control cohort of 144 non-metastatic tumours. In 25% of cases, metastases diverged early, before the last clonal sweep in the primary tumour, and early divergence was enriched for patients who were smokers at the time of initial diagnosis. Simulations suggested that early metastatic divergence more frequently occurred at smaller tumour diameters (less than 8 mm). Single-region primary tumour sampling resulted in 83% of late divergence cases being misclassified as early, highlighting the importance of extensive primary tumour sampling. Polyclonal dissemination, which was associated with extrathoracic disease recurrence, was found in 32% of cases. Primary lymph node disease contributed to metastatic relapse in less than 20% of cases, representing a hallmark of metastatic potential rather than a route to subsequent recurrences/disease progression. Metastasis-seeding subclones exhibited subclonal expansions within primary tumours, probably reflecting positive selection. Our findings highlight the importance of selection in metastatic clone evolution within untreated primary tumours, the distinction between monoclonal versus polyclonal seeding in dictating site of recurrence, the limitations of current radiological screening approaches for early diverging tumours and the need to develop strategies to target metastasis-seeding subclones before relapse

Genomic–transcriptomic evolution in lung cancer and metastasis

Intratumour heterogeneity (ITH) fuels lung cancer evolution, which leads to immune evasion and resistance to therapy. Here, using paired whole-exome and RNA sequencing data, we investigate intratumour transcriptomic diversity in 354 non-small cell lung cancer tumours from 347 out of the first 421 patients prospectively recruited into the TRACERx study. Analyses of 947 tumour regions, representing both primary and metastatic disease, alongside 96 tumour-adjacent normal tissue samples implicate the transcriptome as a major source of phenotypic variation. Gene expression levels and ITH relate to patterns of positive and negative selection during tumour evolution. We observe frequent copy number-independent allele-specific expression that is linked to epigenomic dysfunction. Allele-specific expression can also result in genomic–transcriptomic parallel evolution, which converges on cancer gene disruption. We extract signatures of RNA single-base substitutions and link their aetiology to the activity of the RNA-editing enzymes ADAR and APOBEC3A, thereby revealing otherwise undetected ongoing APOBEC activity in tumours. Characterizing the transcriptomes of primary–metastatic tumour pairs, we combine multiple machine-learning approaches that leverage genomic and transcriptomic variables to link metastasis-seeding potential to the evolutionary context of mutations and increased proliferation within primary tumour regions. These results highlight the interplay between the genome and transcriptome in influencing ITH, lung cancer evolution and metastasis