Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures

Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection and vaccination. Little is known, however, about the typical duration of immunity and its epidemiological implications. Here, we analyze a simple mathematical model, exploring specifically the inter-epidemic period and fade-out frequency. These predictions are then contrasted with detailed incidence data for England and Wales. We find model output to be most sensitive to assumptions concerning naturally acquired immunity, which allows us to estimate the average duration of immunity. Our results support a period of natural immunity that is, on average, long-lasting (at least 30 years) but inherently variable

Increased Population Prevalence of Low Pertussis Toxin Antibody Levels in Young Children Preceding a Record Pertussis Epidemic in Australia

Background: Cross-sectional serosurveys using IgG antibody to pertussis toxin (IgG-PT) are increasingly being used to estimate trends in recent infection independent of reporting biases. Methods/Principal Findings: We compared the age-specific seroprevalence of various levels of IgG-PT in cross-sectional surveys using systematic collections of residual sera from Australian diagnostic laboratories in 1997/8, 2002 and 2007 with reference to both changes in the pertussis vaccine schedule and the epidemic cycle, as measured by disease notifications. A progressive decline in high-level ($62.5 EU/ml) IgG-PT prevalence from 19 % (95 % CI 16–22%) in 1997/98 to 12 % (95 % CI 11–14%) in 2002 and 5 % (95 % CI 4–6%) in 2007 was consistent with patterns of pertussis notifications in the year prior to each collection. Concomitantly, the overall prevalence of undetectable (,5 EU/ml) levels increased from 17 % (95 % CI 14– 20%) in 1997/98 to 38 % (95 % CI 36–40%) in 2007 but among children aged 1–4 years, from 25 % (95 % CI 17–34%) in 1997/98 to 62 % (95 % CI 56–68%) in 2007. This change followed withdrawal of the 18-month booster dose in 2003 and preceded record pertussis notifications from 2008 onwards. Conclusions/Significance: Population seroprevalence of high levels of IgG-PT is accepted as a reliable indicator of pertussis disease activity over time within and between countries with varying diagnostic practices, especially in unimmunised age groups. Our novel findings suggest that increased prevalence of undetectable IgG-PT is an indicator of waning immunit

Surveillance recommendations based on an exploratory analysis of respiratory syncytial virus reports derived from the European Influenza Surveillance System

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen that can cause severe illness in infants and young children. In this study, we assessed whether data on RSV collected by the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) could be used to build an RSV surveillance system in Europe. METHODS: Influenza and RSV data for the 2002–2003 winter season were analysed for England, France, the Netherlands and Scotland. Data from sentinel physician networks and other sources, mainly hospitals, were collected. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza and RSV mainly by virus culture and polymerase chain reaction amplification. RESULTS: Data on RSV were entered timely into the EISS database. RSV contributed noticeably to influenza-like illness: in England sentinel RSV detections were common in all age groups, but particularly in young children with 20 (40.8%) of the total number of sentinel swabs testing positive for RSV. Scotland and France also reported the highest percentages of RSV detections in the 0–4 year age group, respectively 10.3% (N = 29) and 12.2% (N = 426). In the Netherlands, RSV was detected in one person aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: We recommend that respiratory specimens collected in influenza surveillance are also tested systematically for RSV and emphasize the use of both community derived data and data from hospitals for RSV surveillance. RSV data from the EISS have been entered in a timely manner and we consider that the EISS model can be used to develop an RSV surveillance system equivalent to the influenza surveillance in Europe

Pertussis resurgence in Toronto, Canada: a population-based study including test-incidence feedback modeling

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pertussis continues to challenge medical professionals; recently described increases in incidence may be due to age-cohort effects, vaccine effectiveness, or changes in testing patterns. Toronto, Canada has recently experienced increases in pertussis incidence, and provides an ideal jurisdiction for evaluating pertussis epidemiology due to centralized testing. We evaluated pertussis trends in Toronto using all available specimen data, which allowed us to control for changing testing patterns and practices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data included all pertussis culture and PCR test records for Greater Toronto from 1993 to 2007. We estimated incidence trends using Poisson regression models; complex relationships between disease incidence and test submission were explored with vector autoregressive models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 1993 to 2007, 26988 specimens were submitted for testing; 2545 (9.4%) were positive. Pertussis incidence was 2 per 100,000 from 1993 to 2004 and increased to 10 per 100,000 from 2005-2007, with a concomitant 6-fold surge in test specimen submissions after the introduction of a new, more sensitive PCR assay. The relative change in incidence was less marked after adjustment for testing volumes. Bidirectional feedbacks between test positivity and test submissions were identified.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Toronto's recent surge in pertussis reflects a true increase in local disease activity; the apparent size of the outbreak has likely been magnified by increasing use of pertussis testing by clinicians, and by improved test sensitivity since 2005. These findings may be applicable to changes in pertussis epidemiology that have been noted elsewhere in North America.</p

Comparative genomics of prevaccination and modern Bordetella pertussis strains

Contains fulltext : 89571.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Despite vaccination since the 1950s, pertussis has persisted and resurged. It remains a major cause of infant death worldwide and is the most prevalent vaccine-preventable disease in developed countries. The resurgence of pertussis has been associated with the expansion of Bordetella pertussis strains with a novel allele for the pertussis toxin (Ptx) promoter, ptxP3, which have replaced resident ptxP1 strains. Compared to ptxP1 strains, ptxP3 produce more Ptx resulting in increased virulence and immune suppression. To elucidate how B. pertussis has adapted to vaccination, we compared genome sequences of two ptxP3 strains with four strains isolated before and after the introduction vaccination. RESULTS: The distribution of SNPs in regions involved in transcription and translation suggested that changes in gene regulation play an important role in adaptation. No evidence was found for acquisition of novel genes. Modern strains differed significantly from prevaccination strains, both phylogenetically and with respect to particular alleles. The ptxP3 strains were found to have diverged recently from modern ptxP1 strains. Differences between ptxP3 and modern ptxP1 strains included SNPs in a number of pathogenicity-associated genes. Further, both gene inactivation and reactivation was observed in ptxP3 strains relative to modern ptxP1 strains. CONCLUSIONS: Our work suggests that B. pertussis adapted by successive accumulation of SNPs and by gene (in)activation. In particular changes in gene regulation may have played a role in adaptation

Detection of small RNAs in Bordetella pertussis and identification of a novel repeated genetic element

Background: Small bacterial RNAs (sRNAs) have been shown to participate in the regulation of gene expression and have been identified in numerous prokaryotic species. Some of them are involved in the regulation of virulence in pathogenic bacteria. So far, little is known about sRNAs in Bordetella, and only very few sRNAs have been identified in the genome of Bordetella pertussis, the causative agent of whooping cough. Results: An in silico approach was used to predict sRNAs genes in intergenic regions of the B. pertussis genome. The genome sequences of B. pertussis, Bordetella parapertussis, Bordetella bronchiseptica and Bordetella avium were compared using a Blast, and significant hits were analyzed using RNAz. Twenty-three candidate regions were obtained, including regions encoding the already documented 6S RNA, and the GCVT and FMN riboswitches. The existence of sRNAs was verified by Northern blot analyses, and transcripts were detected for 13 out of the 20 additional candidates. These new sRNAs were named Bordetella pertussis RNAs, bpr. The expression of 4 of them differed between the early, exponential and late growth phases, and one of them, bprJ2, was found to be under the control of BvgA/BvgS two-component regulatory system of Bordetella virulence. A phylogenetic study of the bprJ sequence revealed a novel, so far undocumented repeat of ~90 bp, found in numerous copies in the Bordetella genomes and in that of other Betaproteobacteria. This repeat exhibits certain features of mobil

The epidemiology of pertussis in Germany: past and present

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Current and past pertussis epidemiology in the two parts of Germany is compared in the context of different histories of vaccination recommendations and coverage to better understand patterns of disease transmission.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Available regional pertussis surveillance and vaccination coverage data, supplemented by a literature search for published surveys as well as official national hospital and mortality statistics, were analyzed in the context of respective vaccination recommendations from 1964 onwards.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Routine childhood pertussis vaccination was recommended in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) from 1964 and in former West German states (FWG) from 1969, but withdrawn from 1974–1991 in FWG. Pertussis incidence declined to <1 case/100.000 inhabitants in GDR prior to reunification in 1991, while in FWG, where pertussis was not notifiable after 1961, incidence was estimated at 160–180 cases/100.000 inhabitants in the 1970s-1980s. Despite recommendations for universal childhood immunization in 1991, vaccination coverage decreased in former East German States (FEG) and increased only slowly in FWG. After introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines in 1995, vaccination coverage increased markedly among younger children, but remains low in adolescents, especially in FWG, despite introduction of a booster vaccination for 9–17 year olds in 2000. Reported pertussis incidence increased in FEG to 39.3 cases/100.000 inhabitants in 2007, with the proportion of adults increasing from 20% in 1995 to 68% in 2007. From 2004–2007, incidence was highest among 5–14 year-old children, with a high proportion fully vaccinated according to official recommendations, which did not include a preschool booster until 2006. Hospital discharge statistics revealed a ~2-fold higher pertussis morbidity among infants in FWG than FEG.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The shift in pertussis morbidity to older age groups observed in FEG is similar to reports from other countries with longstanding vaccination programs and suggests that additional booster vaccination may be necessary beyond adolescence. The high proportion of fully vaccinated cases in older children in FEG suggests waning immunity 5–10 years after primary immunisation in infancy. The higher incidence of pertussis hospitalisations in infants suggests a stronger force of infection in FWG than FEG. Nationwide pertussis reporting is required for better evaluation of transmission patterns and vaccination policy in both parts of Germany.</p

Emerging viral threats in Gabon: health capacities and response to the risk of emerging zoonotic diseases in Central Africa

Emerging infectious diseases (EID) are currently the major threat to public health worldwide and most EID events have involved zoonotic infectious agents. Central Africa in general and Gabon in particular are privileged areas for the emergence of zoonotic EIDs. Indeed, human incursions in Gabonese forests for exploitation purposes lead to intensified contacts between humans and wildlife thus generating an increased risk of emergence of zoonotic diseases. In Gabon, 51 endemic or potential endemic viral infectious diseases have been reported. Among them, 22 are of zoonotic origin and involve 12 families of viruses. The most notorious are dengue, yellow fever, ebola, marburg, Rift Valley fever and chikungunya viruses. Potential EID due to wildlife in Gabon are thereby plentiful and need to be inventoried. The Gabonese Public Health system covers geographically most of the country allowing a good access to sanitary information and efficient monitoring of emerging diseases. However, access to treatment and prevention is better in urban areas where medical structures are more developed and financial means are concentrated even though the population is equally distributed between urban and rural areas. In spite of this, Gabon could be a good field for investigating the emergence or re-emergence of zoonotic EID. Indeed Gabonese health research structures such as CIRMF, advantageously located, offer high quality researchers and facilities that study pathogens and wildlife ecology, aiming toward a better understanding of the contact and transmission mechanisms of new pathogens from wildlife to human, the emergence of zoonotic EID and the breaking of species barriers by pathogens

Cost-Effectiveness of Adolescent Pertussis Vaccination for The Netherlands: Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Model

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread immunization programs, a clear increase in pertussis incidence is apparent in many developed countries during the last decades. Consequently, additional immunization strategies are considered to reduce the burden of disease. The aim of this study is to design an individual-based stochastic dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population in order to predict the epidemiologic and economic consequences of the implementation of universal booster vaccination programs. Using this framework, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of universal adolescent pertussis booster vaccination at the age of 12 years in the Netherlands. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We designed a discrete event simulation (DES) model to predict the epidemiological and economic consequences of implementing universal adolescent booster vaccination. We used national age-specific notification data over the period 1996-2000--corrected for underreporting--to calibrate the model assuming a steady state situation. Subsequently, booster vaccination was introduced. Input parameters of the model were derived from literature, national data sources (e.g. costing data, incidence and hospitalization data) and expert opinions. As there is no consensus on the duration of immunity acquired by natural infection, we considered two scenarios for this duration of protection (i.e. 8 and 15 years). In both scenarios, total pertussis incidence decreased as a result of adolescent vaccination. From a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness was estimated at €4418/QALY (range: 3205-6364 € per QALY) and €6371/QALY (range: 4139-9549 € per QALY) for the 8- and 15-year protection scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the outcomes are most sensitive to the quality of life weights used for pertussis disease. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To our knowledge we designed the first individual-based dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population. This study indicates that adolescent pertussis vaccination is likely to be a cost-effective intervention for The Netherlands. The model is suited to investigate further pertussis booster vaccination strategies