Processes for identifying regional influences of and responses to increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} and climate change - the MINK project: An overview

Scientists believe that a serious change in the climate of the earth could occur in the course of the next two to five decades as a result of warming caused by the rapid accumulation of radiatively active trace gases in the atmosphere. There is concern that not only the amount of warming but the rate at which it occurs could be unprecedented, at least since the current interglacial period began. Scientific uncertainties remain in our understanding of the climatic changes that may follow from greenhouse warming. Nevertheless, large and rapid changes in regional climate are conceivable. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes for the central U.S. as large as an 8{degrees}C increase in mean summertime temperature accompanied by a 1 mm/day decrease in mean precipitation. Most predictions are less extreme but, so long as the direction of change is credible, efforts are warranted to identify just what kinds of impacts to expect if society chooses to allow climate to change or cannot stop it from changing, and just what might be done to adjust to those impacts

Toward the Development of an Urban Growth Model that Recognizes the Importance of the Basic Nature of Services

This exploratory research examines selected service sectors of a defined local economy. Using export base theory, preliminary models linking these services sectors to exogenous influences are developed. These models are found to be statistically diverse. Further model-building efforts should recognize the heterogeneous nature of services through disaggregation of services sectors and a thorough consideration of potential exogenous variables. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Drivers of change in global agriculture

As a result of agricultural intensification, more food is produced today than needed to feed the entire world population and at prices that have never been so low. Yet despite this success and the impact of globalization and increasing world trade in agriculture, there remain large, persistent and, in some cases, worsening spatial differences in the ability of societies to both feed themselves and protect the long-term productive capacity of their natural resources. This paper explores these differences and develops a country×farming systems typology for exploring the linkages between human needs, agriculture and the environment, and for assessing options for addressing future food security, land use and ecosystem service challenges facing different societies around the world